NEW positions in Sit. Awareness LP's last 13F · thesis-pure AI compute fund · leading indicator · 8 names
Aschenbrenner runs $5B+ exclusively on the AI compute buildout thesis (power, optical, BTC-miner→AI pivots). When he opens a NEW position it's a high-signal data point — he's the canonical thesis holder. Cross-reference these against the screener tracks below.
Aschenbrenner thesis · BTC-miner→AI pivots + power generation · gates on hpc_hosting kw ≥3 OR power_for_dc kw ≥3 · 1 candidate
Catches names Track D misses: bitcoin miners with DC-ready facilities pivoting to AI hosting (CORZ/IREN/APLD pattern) and power generators feeding the AI buildout (BE/EQT/BW). Their 10-Ks talk "hashrate" or "power purchase agreement," not "data center." Wider mcap range ($300M-$15B) since these names cluster mid-cap.
Captures the full Aschenbrenner archetype validated 2026-05-07 against his Q4 2025 13F: capital-intensive growth at premium price. His holdings cluster at capex/rev 0.38 (89th pct vs baseline 0.04), P/S 10.5x (87th pct vs 2.2x), rev growth +25% (82nd pct vs +5.7%), with debt-funded buildout (D/E 0.85, low cash) and reinvestment (ROE 3.8%). Three thesis kw clusters: data_center (+74.6pp), power_gen (+49.2pp), convertible_growth (+55.5pp). Distinct from Track A (value, P/S<3) and Track G (keyword-only). Re-validation scheduled 2026-05-15 against Q1 2026 13F.
Zero stocks met all hard gates this scan: Price $5–$100 · MCap $300M–$3B · Rev growth >15% · P/S <3 · ROE >15% · Rel Vol >1.5× · Analyst <5.
This is normal — the filter set is reverse-engineered from the pre-run metrics of actual winners (SNDK, FIX, CRDO, VRT, BE, IESC, LITE), so most days return 0–2 names.
Funds Tracked
12
active
Best YTD 2026
+80.8%
2026
Last Run
2026-05-20
updated
Consensus Holdings
stocks held by the most tracked funds — where the smart money concentrates
#1 consensus
NVDA
NVIDIA CORPORATION
4 funds$5,730M
#2 consensus
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
4 funds$1,263M
#3 consensus
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC
4 funds$112M
Consensus Theme
dominant sector across all funds' top holdings
AI Infrastructure
29 of 78 tracked positions (37%)
1
Sit. Awareness
Situational Awareness LP
+80.8%
Leopold AschenbrennerAI InfrastructureQ1 202629 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+80.8%
2025
+15.3%
2024
N/A
2023
N/A
2022
N/A
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
SMH
VANECK ETF TRUST
$2.1B
—
—
—
NVDA
NVIDIA CORPORATION
$1.6B
—
—
—
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$1.1B
—
—
—
ORCL
ORACLE CORP
$1.1B
—
—
—
MU
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
$1.0B
—
—
—
AVGO
BROADCOM INC
$1.0B
—
—
—
AMD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
$989M
—
—
—
BE
BLOOM ENERGY CORP
$934M
—
—
—
TSM
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC
$898M
—
—
—
CRWV
COREWEAVE INC
$697M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
ORCL
ORACLE CORP
$1.1B
AVGO
BROADCOM INC
$1.0B
TE
T1 ENERGY INC
$44M
AMD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
$20M
SHAZ
SHARONAI HOLDINGS INC
$18M
SMH
VANECK ETF TRUST
$10M
TSM
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC
$8M
HIVE
HIVE DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES LT
$6M
Added
INTC
INTEL CORP
$9M
+892,800%
CLSK
CLEANSPARK INC
$104M
+529%
BITF
BITFARMS LTD
$39M
+139%
BW
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISES
$20M
+132%
RIOT
RIOT PLATFORMS INC
$142M
+82%
BE
BLOOM ENERGY CORP
$55M
+56%
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$389M
+55%
PUMP
PROPETRO HLDG CORP
$13M
+52%
Trimmed
CRWV
COREWEAVE INC
$141M
-68%
SEI
SOLARIS ENERGY INFRAS INC
$62M
-27%
WYFI
WHITEFIBER INC
$21M
-25%
INFY
INFOSYS LTD
$7M
-24%
Exited
LITE
LUMENTUM HLDGS INC
$479M
CIFR
CIPHER MINING INC
$155M
COHR
COHERENT CORP
$89M
TSEM
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD
$85M
KRC
KILROY RLTY CORP
$50M
HUT
HUT 8 CORP
$40M
EQT
EQT CORP
$38M
LBRT
LIBERTY ENERGY INC
$10M
2
Sassicaia Advise
Sassicaia Capital Advisers LLC
+78.3%
Q1 202629 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+78.3%
2025
+13.2%
2024
+115.5%
2023
+78.5%
2022
-25.6%
3Y CAGR
+63.3%
5Y CAGR
+32.9%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
GLD
SPDR GOLD TR
$20M
—
—
—
NVDA
NVIDIA CORPORATION
$15M
—
—
—
MU
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
$11M
—
—
—
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$11M
—
—
—
QQQ
INVESCO QQQ TR
$4M
—
—
—
MRVL
MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC
$3M
—
—
—
XOM
EXXON MOBIL CORP
$3M
—
—
—
CVX
CHEVRON CORPORATION
$2M
—
—
—
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC
$2M
—
—
—
META
META PLATFORMS INC
$2M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$11M
MRVL
MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC
$3M
XOM
EXXON MOBIL CORP
$3M
CVX
CHEVRON CORPORATION
$2M
OXY
OCCIDENTAL PETE CORP
$2M
APA
APA CORPORATION
$2M
CZR
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INC NE
$1M
XBI
SPDR SERIES TRUST
$1M
Trimmed
JPM
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
$1M
-100%
SPY
STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$1M
-100%
AAPL
APPLE INC
$1M
-100%
QQQ
INVESCO QQQ TR
$4M
-100%
META
META PLATFORMS INC
$2M
-100%
MSFT
MICROSOFT CORP
$1M
-100%
TSLA
TESLA INC
$1M
-100%
TSM
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC
$1M
-100%
Exited
IBIT
ISHARES BITCOIN TRUST ETF
$4.0B
WBD
WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC
$2.3B
NVDL
GRANITESHARES ETF TR
$1.9B
ETHA
ISHARES ETHEREUM TR
$1.8B
GS
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
$1.3B
TNA
DIREXION SHS ETF TR
$1.1B
PPLT
ABRDN PLATINUM ETF TRUST
$858M
AVGO
BROADCOM INC
$692M
3
GENDELL JEFFREY
GENDELL JEFFREY L
+56.9%
Q1 202626 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+56.9%
2025
+75.6%
2024
+97.0%
2023
+81.4%
2022
-18.9%
3Y CAGR
+84.4%
5Y CAGR
+43.4%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
IESC
IES HOLDINGS INC
$4.9B
—
—
—
IWM
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF
$237M
—
—
—
AMR
ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCE
$112M
—
—
—
OC
OWENS CORNING
$102M
—
—
—
TPC
TUTOR PERINI CORP
$97M
—
—
—
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$95M
—
—
—
BW
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPR
$75M
—
—
—
GNW
GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC
$63M
—
—
—
OIH
VANECK OIL SERVICES ETF
$61M
—
—
—
GLW
CORNING INC
$55M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
IWM
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF
$59M
INDV
INDIVIOR PHARMACEUTICALS INC
$14M
APH
AMPHENOL CORP-CL A
$11M
?
ALKERMES PLC
$9M
ON
ON SEMICONDUCTOR
$7M
ENS
ENERSYS
$6M
?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD
$5M
MPB
MID PENN BANCORP INC
$3M
Added
?
STEPAN CO
$2M
+1,850%
AVTR
AVANTOR INC
$10M
+517%
BAX
BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC
$7M
+208%
GT
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO
$5M
+154%
BA
BOEING CO/THE
$5M
+152%
BW
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPR
$18M
+148%
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$19M
+139%
AA
ALCOA CORP
$4M
+137%
Trimmed
OIS
OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL INC
$1M
-63%
?
TECOGEN INC/WALTHAM MA
$1M
-57%
WTTR
SELECT WATER SOLUTIONS INC
$3M
-55%
HUM
HUMANA INC
$1M
-55%
AAPL
APPLE INC
$4M
-53%
?
FENNEC PHARMACEUTICALS INC
$0M
-53%
?
FLEX LTD
$7M
-43%
OSG
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC
$2M
-41%
Exited
?
AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS
$24M
?
INDIVIOR PLC
$17M
LXU
LSB INDUSTRIES INC
$8M
IROQ
IF BANCORP INC
$0M
4
Trybe
Trybe Capital Management LP
+54.0%
Q1 20266 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+54.0%
2025
+26.9%
2024
+67.6%
2023
+119.9%
2022
-38.6%
3Y CAGR
+67.2%
5Y CAGR
+30.1%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
NVDA
NVIDIA CORPORATION
$276M
—
—
—
LRCX
LAM RESEARCH CORP
$102M
—
—
—
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC
$72M
—
—
—
TSM
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC
$68M
—
—
—
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$44M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$44M
Added
NVDA
NVIDIA CORPORATION
$136M
+42%
LRCX
LAM RESEARCH CORP
$102M
+25%
?
ASML HLDG NV
$20M
+24%
Exited
QBTS
D-WAVE QUANTUM INC
$51M
MSFT
MICROSOFT CORP
$47M
AMZN
AMAZON COM INC
$46M
IONQ
IONQ INC
$24M
5
FengHe Pte.
FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd.
+51.6%
Q1 202627 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+51.6%
2025
+57.4%
2024
+45.3%
2023
+73.9%
2022
-15.9%
3Y CAGR
+58.4%
5Y CAGR
+27.4%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
MKSI
MKS INC.
$105M
—
—
—
BWXT
BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC
$80M
—
—
—
TER
TERADYNE INC
$58M
—
—
—
TSM
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC
$37M
—
—
—
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC
$37M
—
—
—
SITM
SITIME CORP
$37M
—
—
—
LITE
LUMENTUM HLDGS INC
$37M
—
—
—
LHX
L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC
$35M
—
—
—
CIEN
CIENA CORP
$35M
—
—
—
MTSI
MACOM TECH SOLUTIONS HLDGS I
$25M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
MKSI
MKS INC.
$105M
BWXT
BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC
$80M
TER
TERADYNE INC
$58M
MOD
MODINE MFG CO
$14M
MSFT
MICROSOFT CORP
$10M
AA
ALCOA CORP
$7M
B
BARRICK MNG CORP
$6M
WWD
WOODWARD INC
$5M
Added
?
ASML HLDG NV
$32M
+216%
AMD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
$22M
+39%
Trimmed
ALNY
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS INC
$11M
-88%
AVGO
BROADCOM INC
$18M
-82%
TAL
TAL ED GROUP
$2M
-79%
CIEN
CIENA CORP
$35M
-78%
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC
$37M
-77%
CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
$10M
-73%
MTSI
MACOM TECH SOLUTIONS HLDGS I
$25M
-73%
?
CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDI
$9M
-61%
Exited
SNDK
SANDISK CORP
$102M
U
UNITY SOFTWARE INC
$77M
APP
APPLOVIN CORP
$63M
LLY
ELI LILLY & CO
$55M
GLW
CORNING INC
$51M
MRK
MERCK & CO INC
$44M
VRT
VERTIV HOLDINGS CO
$39M
WRD
WERIDE INC
$36M
6
PECONIC
PECONIC PARTNERS LLC
+48.8%
Q1 20268 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+48.8%
2025
+49.6%
2024
+40.6%
2023
+45.5%
2022
+11.0%
3Y CAGR
+45.2%
5Y CAGR
+39.7%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
PWR
QUANTA SCVS INC
$2.7B
—
—
—
DY
DYCOM INDS INC
$1.4B
—
—
—
MTZ
MASTEC INC
$1.2B
—
—
—
AMZN
AMAZON COM INC
$199M
—
—
—
FCX
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
$195M
—
—
—
FSLR
FIRST SOLAR INC
$78M
—
—
—
AMC
AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC
$3M
—
—
—
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC
$1M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
Added
MTZ
MASTEC INC
$1.2B
+231%
AMZN
AMAZON COM INC
$199M
+183%
FCX
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
$195M
+92%
PWR
QUANTA SCVS INC
$2.7B
+30%
?
CINEMARK HLDGS INC
$11M
+23%
Trimmed
AMC
AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC
$3M
-37%
Exited
?
EQT CORP
$31M
RRC
RANGE RES CORP
$28M
DVN
DEVON ENERGY CORP NEW
$11M
CTRA
COTERRA ENERGY INC
$11M
AR
ANTERO RESOURCES CORP
$10M
SLAB
SILICON LABORATORIES INC
$4M
7
Donor Advised Ch
Donor Advised Charitable Giving, Inc.
+16.6%
Q1 202630 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+16.6%
2025
+35.3%
2024
+179.4%
2023
+222.7%
2022
-49.5%
3Y CAGR
+130.2%
5Y CAGR
+62.1%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
NVDA
NVIDIA CORPORATION
$3.9B
—
—
—
ITOT
ISHARES TR
$8M
—
—
—
VT
VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX F
$6M
—
—
—
AJG
GALLAGHER ARTHUR J & CO
$5M
—
—
—
SCHK
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR
$4M
—
—
—
IVV
ISHARES TR
$3M
—
—
—
META
META PLATFORMS INC
$3M
—
—
—
PANW
PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC
$2M
—
—
—
RBLX
ROBLOX CORP
$2M
—
—
—
IXUS
ISHARES TR
$2M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
Added
GVI
ISHARES TR
$0M
+44%
ISTB
ISHARES TR
$0M
+21%
Trimmed
VTI
VANGUARD INDEX FDS
$0M
-86%
FLOT
ISHARES TR
$0M
-47%
WDAY
WORKDAY INC
$2M
-40%
DASH
DOORDASH INC
$1M
-34%
RBLX
ROBLOX CORP
$2M
-30%
RKT
ROCKET COS INC
$0M
-26%
COIN
COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$1M
-23%
Exited
EEM
ISHARES TR
$1M
FNDX
SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR
$1M
AAPL
APPLE INC
$0M
EWJ
ISHARES INC
$0M
IQLT
ISHARES TR
$0M
AVUV
AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR
$0M
?
AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR
$0M
?
AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR
$0M
8
SHAH
SHAH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
+13.6%
Q1 20268 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+13.6%
2025
+16.1%
2024
+49.5%
2023
+11.2%
2022
+54.3%
3Y CAGR
+24.5%
5Y CAGR
+47.0%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
VEON
VEON LTD
$226M
—
—
—
NVAX
NOVAVAX INC
$121M
—
—
—
VGSH
VANGUARD SCOTTSDALE FDS
$20M
—
—
—
EDU
NEW ORIENTAL ED & TECHNOLOGY
$17M
—
—
—
AM
ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORP
$13M
—
—
—
CSIQ
CANADIAN SOLAR INC
$13M
—
—
—
WOLF
WOLFSPEED INC
$8M
—
—
—
TDAY
USA TODAY CO INC
$4M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
Added
WOLF
WOLFSPEED INC
$8M
+1,325%
?
TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
$29M
+134%
AM
ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORP
$13M
+28%
NVAX
NOVAVAX INC
$121M
+24%
Trimmed
TDAY
USA TODAY CO INC
$4M
-62%
CSIQ
CANADIAN SOLAR INC
$13M
-42%
Exited
BIDU
BAIDU INC
$4M
9
ARK Invest
ARK Investment Management LLC
+4.2%
Cathie WoodDisruptive Innovation (Quantum / Space / AI / Genomics)Q1 202629 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+4.2%
2025
+33.6%
2024
+23.6%
2023
+73.0%
2022
-66.9%
3Y CAGR
+41.9%
5Y CAGR
-3.8%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
TSLA
Tesla Inc
$1.1B
—
—
—
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
$552M
—
—
—
CRSP
CRISPR Therapeutics AG
$538M
—
—
—
SHOP
Shopify Inc
$496M
—
—
—
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc
$455M
—
—
—
TEM
Tempus AI Inc
$434M
—
—
—
CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc
$430M
—
—
—
HOOD
Robinhood Markets Inc
$416M
—
—
—
COIN
Coinbase Global Inc
$414M
—
—
—
TER
Teradyne Inc
$369M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
AVGO
Broadcom Inc
$126M
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
$12M
BNTX
BioNTech SE
$11M
?
Generate Biomedicines Inc
$6M
?
PayPay Corp
$6M
?
Compugen Ltd
$2M
?
Kamada Ltd
$2M
?
Alpha Tau Medical Ltd
$2M
Added
FIG
Figma Inc
$72M
+230%
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corp
$8M
+171%
CAT
Caterpillar Inc
$42M
+112%
?
HEICO Corp
$12M
+97%
WRD
WeRide Inc
$30M
+70%
HON
Honeywell International Inc
$9M
+62%
?
Garmin Ltd
$12M
+61%
?
Elbit Systems Ltd
$51M
+55%
Trimmed
PINS
Pinterest Inc
$1M
-99%
IWB
iShares Russell 1000 ETF
$0M
-93%
CRM
Salesforce Inc
$1M
-92%
ABNB
Airbnb Inc
$20M
-85%
IWF
iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF
$0M
-84%
DKNG
DraftKings Inc
$29M
-81%
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Tr
$0M
-63%
Z
Zillow Group Inc
$7M
-59%
Exited
TTD
The Trade Desk Inc
$111M
PD
PagerDuty Inc
$109M
U
Unity Software Inc
$43M
QCOM
Qualcomm Inc
$43M
FUTU
Futu Holdings Ltd
$17M
NXDR
Nextdoor Holdings Inc
$16M
AMGN
Amgen Inc
$15M
?
Global-E Online Ltd
$14M
10
Kopernik Global
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC
+4.0%
Q1 202629 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
+4.0%
2025
+73.7%
2024
+22.7%
2023
+31.9%
2022
+0.3%
3Y CAGR
+41.1%
5Y CAGR
+32.3%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
SA
SEABRIDGE GOLD INC
$208M
—
—
—
RRC
RANGE RES CORP
$189M
—
—
—
KT
KT CORP
$114M
—
—
—
NTR
NUTRIEN LTD
$107M
—
—
—
EXE
EXPAND ENERGY CORPORATION
$89M
—
—
—
BEN
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC
$83M
—
—
—
CNC
CENTENE CORP DEL
$82M
—
—
—
NG
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
$58M
—
—
—
CRESY
CRESUD S A C I F Y A
$56M
—
—
—
WY
WEYERHAEUSER CO
$47M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
WY
WEYERHAEUSER CO
$47M
RYN
RAYONIER INC
$45M
CNXC
CONCENTRIX CORP
$45M
NICE
NICE LTD
$28M
HUM
HUMANA INC
$20M
PLG
PLATINUM GROUP METALS LTD
$1M
Added
AMGN
AMGEN INC
$0M
+7,400%
VGZ
VISTA GOLD CORP
$27M
+459%
IE
IVANHOE ELECTRIC INC
$21M
+208%
MOH
MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC
$39M
+79%
THM
INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MIN
$41M
+51%
AAPL
APPLE INC
$0M
+46%
ABBV
ABBVIE INC
$0M
+25%
Trimmed
NEM
NEWMONT CORP
$0M
-97%
RGLD
ROYAL GOLD INC
$22M
-53%
KEP
KOREA ELEC PWR CORP
$3M
-33%
NG
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
$58M
-26%
Exited
SLB
SLB LIMITED
$50M
PAYX
PAYCHEX INC
$0M
11
Lingotto LLP
Lingotto Investment Management LLP
-0.4%
Q1 202627 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
-0.4%
2025
+74.5%
2024
+80.4%
2023
+20.8%
2022
+14.1%
3Y CAGR
+56.1%
5Y CAGR
+40.1%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
TEVA
TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDS LTD
$836M
—
—
—
CVNA
CARVANA CO
$801M
—
—
—
PSKY
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE CORP
$417M
—
—
—
NG
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
$331M
—
—
—
RRC
RANGE RES CORP
$325M
—
—
—
SLB
SLB LIMITED
$300M
—
—
—
VEON
VEON LTD
$280M
—
—
—
SBSW
SIBANYE STILLWATER LTD
$246M
—
—
—
GDXJ
VANECK ETF TRUST
$239M
—
—
—
AG
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP
$215M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
?
NEBIUS GROUP N.V.
$13M
KKR
KKR & CO INC
$2M
OWL
BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC
$2M
Added
MRNA
MODERNA INC
$39M
+164%
?
VALARIS LTD
$363M
+94%
NET
CLOUDFLARE INC
$62M
+79%
AG
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP
$215M
+29%
AUR
AURORA INNOVATION INC
$40M
+28%
RRC
RANGE RES CORP
$325M
+28%
Trimmed
HMY
HARMONY GOLD MNG LTD
$2M
-97%
MSFT
MICROSOFT CORP
$5M
-89%
SLB
SLB LIMITED
$21M
-70%
RKT
ROCKET COS INC
$3M
-56%
PONY
PONY AI INC
$31M
-47%
SBSW
SIBANYE STILLWATER LTD
$246M
-39%
PSKY
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE CORP
$417M
-34%
CVNA
CARVANA CO
$801M
-34%
Exited
H
HYATT HOTELS CORP
$10M
?
CRH PLC
$7M
RUN
SUNRUN INC
$4M
PRMB
PRIMO BRANDS CORPORATION
$3M
VRT
VERTIV HOLDINGS CO
$3M
DNA
GINKGO BIOWORKS HOLDINGS INC
$2M
UUUU
ENERGY FUELS INC
$1M
12
Glendon
Glendon Capital Management LP
-7.7%
Q1 202621 positions100% mapped
YTD 2026
-7.7%
2025
+33.7%
2024
+75.8%
2023
+27.3%
2022
+12.2%
3Y CAGR
+44.1%
5Y CAGR
+37.2%
Top 10 Holdings · price + return since first detected
Ticker
Issuer
13F $
Now $
Return
Seen
EXE
EXPAND ENERGY CORPORATION
$222M
—
—
—
VST
VISTRA CORP
$95M
—
—
—
NRG
NRG ENERGY INC
$84M
—
—
—
TLN
TALEN ENERGY CORP
$82M
—
—
—
ALLY
ALLY FINL INC
$82M
—
—
—
ACT
ENACT HLDGS INC
$53M
—
—
—
WSBC
WESBANCO INC
$31M
—
—
—
CHRD
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION
$27M
—
—
—
AFRM
AFFIRM HLDGS INC
$24M
—
—
—
DBD
DIEBOLD NIXDORF INC
$16M
—
—
—
QoQ Changes
New
OCFC
OCEANFIRST FINL CORP
$5M
KRC
KILROY REALTY CORP
$2M
COOK
TRAEGER INC
$1M
Added
?
VALARIS LTD
$0M
+94%
?
STEALTHGAS INC
$44M
+31%
DEC
DIVERSIFIED ENERGY CO
$0M
+20%
Trimmed
DBD
DIEBOLD NIXDORF INC
$16M
-70%
CNK
CINEMARK HLDGS INC
$7M
-39%
SKIN
THE BEAUTY HEALTH COMPANY
$1M
-36%
SVC
SERVICE PPTYS TR
$1M
-26%
AFRM
AFFIRM HLDGS INC
$24M
-24%
NCMI
NATIONAL CINEMEDIA INC
$5M
-22%
Exited
?
FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS PARE
$796M
?
TRAEGER INC
$1M
EXEEL
EXPAND ENERGY CORPORATION
$1M
Updated 2026-05-20
Emerging Themes — Speculative Watchlist
leading indicators · NOT yet validated by calibration · use with caution
This tab tracks themes too new for the calibrated screener (Track A/D/E/G). Three layers update on different cadences:
Sector ETF momentum refreshes daily — "is this theme heating up RIGHT NOW?"
ARK / thesis-fund Watch refreshes quarterly via 13F (45-day SEC lag) — speculative conviction.
Emerging keywords (quantum, humanoid, fusion, agent_ai, llm, space_launch) appear as info-only columns on Track D / G cards in the Screener tab.
A theme graduates from this tab to a hard gate when Q3+ calibration shows >=30pp differential.
Sector ETF Momentum
narrative thermometers · sorted by 30d return desc · refreshes daily on each screener run
>+15% over 30 days = theme is heating up. Drill into the ETF's holdings to find specific names benefiting. Persistent >+30% YTD = the bull case is being priced in — expect calibration to surface its keywords next quarter.
ARK Watch
Cathie Wood · disruptive innovation thesis · NEW positions in latest 13F · same return-tracking pattern as Aschenbrenner Watch
ARK opens speculative positions ~quarters before mainstream funds. Use as leading indicator for quantum / robotics / space / genomics themes. 8 NEW positions in latest 13F.
RKLB / ASTR / SPCE-like companies + their suppliers
What's structurally invisible: private companies (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Stripe) have no SEC filings, no insiders, no 10-Ks. They never appear in any track. Their effects propagate via public proxies (NVDA, MSFT, AVGO — all caught by Track D when their narratives align).
Updated 2026-05-20
Technicals — Ready To Pop
pre-rally pattern detector · refreshes daily on screener run · NOT investment advice
Stocks showing the technical signature that preceded prior 1,000% gainers (SNDK, BE, AAOI, IREN, HUT, CIFR …). Two layers:
Featured Setups are manually curated — capture the catalyst-on-deck nuance the algorithm can't see (FDA dates, ASCO readouts, hyperscaler announcements). Auto-Detected scans every tracker stock against 10 algorithmic features — volume dry-up, pocket pivot, drawdown depth, ATR compression, Stage 1→2 transition, distribution-day count, RSI entry zone, theme density.
A name graduates off this list when it runs >50% from the pivot price.
Signal Tracker — Lifetime Returns
every Featured + Auto-Detected symbol · retains removed names so lifetime return is visible · 38 tracked
Same concept as the Signal Tracker on the Screener tab, scoped to Technicals. Each symbol that's ever appeared in Featured Tier 1–3 or Auto-Detected Patterns stays in this list permanently — even after it's removed from the active watchlist — so lifetime return from first scan is always visible. Active = currently in Featured or Auto-Detected. Removed = previously tracked, now off the active list (most likely auto-graduated, agent-removed, or thesis broken).
Tracked
38
32 active
Win Rate
26.3%
10 of 38
Avg Return
-5.3%
mean across all picks
Total Return
-200.3%
sum across all picks
Best Pick
+25.0%
lifetime high
Symbol
Entry $
Now $
1D%
Return
Industry
First Source
State
First Seen
Days
Catalyst
Removed Reason
News
ML %
STUB
StubHub
$7.63
$9.54
+2.25%
+25.0%
Internet Content & Information
featured-tier-2
active
2026-05-07
13
Anthropic Claude AI integration traction (live since Apr 2026); FIFA World Cup ~4% revenue tailwind; Q2 print (NOTE: prior June lockup catalyst was incorrect — actual lockup expired Mar 6 2026)
Full BTC mining exit; Washington 18MW HPC/AI conversion (Dec 2026, $128M binding deal); rebrand to Keel Infrastructure (KEEL)
2026-12-31
Auto-graduated 2026-05-08: ran +60% from pivot $2.5 -> $4.01. Original: Cleanest 'miner that hasn't pivoted yet' play. Announced wind-down but AI revenu
Q2 2026 earnings + Valkyrie production ramp (8 to 40/yr) on $231.5M Marine Corps PoR contract; $446.8M Space Force missile warning contract Apr 8; FY26 revenue guide $1.6-1.7B
Atacicept BLA — FDA Priority Review accepted, PDUFA July 7 2026 (~7 weeks); accelerated approval pathway for IgA Nephropathy; commercial launch on track for mid-2026 if approved
FAA Stage 4 cleared March 2026; TIA flight testing underway; commercial launch with Delta target late 2026; Type Certificate issuance estimated late 2026
Q1 print May 5: revenue beat, FCF guide raised to $1.9-2.1B (from $1.2-1.4B); next leg = continued PCF deal flow on $13B backlog toward 58M-mile buildout
NOTE: ticker now trades as ALM on NASDAQ. Phase 1 Sangdong at full production capacity (640k tons ore/yr); Montana project H2 2026; tungsten APT +50% YTD to $1,375/MTU; Phase 2 targeted 2027
2026-12-31
Removed by research agent 2026-05-19: Sangdong Phase 1 reached commercial production in May 2026, Q1 revenue +221% YoY, tungsten APT prices +50% YTD — pre-rally setup has substantially completed. Remaining catalysts (Montana H2 2026, Phase 2 in 2027) are now ramp-execution rather than setup-into-binary. Stock trades ALM on NASDAQ at the equivalent of ~3x the $8 add price.
FAA Stage 4 cleared March 2026; TIA flight testing underway; commercial launch with Delta target late 2026; Type Certificate issuance estimated late 2026
Anthropic Claude AI integration traction (live since Apr 2026); FIFA World Cup ~4% revenue tailwind; Q2 print (NOTE: prior June lockup catalyst was incorrect — actual lockup expired Mar 6 2026)
Q1 print May 5: revenue beat, FCF guide raised to $1.9-2.1B (from $1.2-1.4B); next leg = continued PCF deal flow on $13B backlog toward 58M-mile buildout
Q2 2026 earnings + Valkyrie production ramp (8 to 40/yr) on $231.5M Marine Corps PoR contract; $446.8M Space Force missile warning contract Apr 8; FY26 revenue guide $1.6-1.7B
Atacicept BLA — FDA Priority Review accepted, PDUFA July 7 2026 (~7 weeks); accelerated approval pathway for IgA Nephropathy; commercial launch on track for mid-2026 if approved
Live columns (Now $ · vs Pivot · Status · Live score) refresh on every screener run (Tue–Sat 06:30 Melbourne post-US-close). Curated columns (Theme · Pivot · Hits · Catalyst · Date) come from tools/screener/featured_setups.json. Status: Basing = below pivot · Coiling = within 10% of pivot · Breaking Out = at/above pivot · Running = +10% past pivot · Broken (red bar) = price <= setup × 0.7. Auto-graduate at +50% from pivot — setup moves to Avoid list automatically. Hover any row for the qualitative thesis.
Auto-Detected Patterns
algorithmic scan of every tracker stock · refreshes on each screener run · 12 hits
Each row is scored against 10 features:
A drawdown ≥50% · B Stage 1→2 (50/200MA align) · C ATR compression · D basing ≥4 weeks ·
E volume dry-up (RelVol<0.7) · F pocket pivot · G no distribution (≤2 days) ·
H recent 8-K + DC keyword (hyperscaler tell) · I hot theme (DC kw ≥5) · J RSI entry zone (40–65).
Tier 1 = 8–10 hits · Tier 2 = 6–7 · Tier 3 = 4–5.
Removed by research agent 2026-05-07: Catalyst window closed: Q3 FY26 earnings reported May 5, 2026. Record backlog ($1.6B) and raised full-year guidance de-risk thesis, but binary event has fired. Recommend removal to maintain forward-looking watchlist focus.
Removed by research agent 2026-05-07: Marvell cancelled all outstanding purchase orders in early May 2026 alleging confidentiality breach. The 30K-unit revenue thesis hinged on customer validation — now in dispute. Thesis materially impaired pending replacement Tier-1 customer.
Removed by research agent 2026-05-07: Q2 FY26 missed (adj EPS $0.44 vs $0.81-0.87 cons); FY26 guide cut to $3.40-3.55 from $3.60-3.70; stock -30% since Oct. Backlog is converting but margins/EPS are breaking — pattern setup invalidated.
Removed by research agent 2026-05-07: +717% 1Y vs +90% at setup. The pre-rally pattern has played out — Tanbreez 92.5% achieved, pilot plant constructed. Graduate to a 'former setup' monitor list rather than keep occupying a Tier 2 slot.
Removed by research agent 2026-05-07: Q1 margin collapse (gross 5.6% vs 12.5%; EBITDA -$52M miss). DC-pipeline narrative is intact but unit economics now look broken — base structure shifts from coiling to failing. Remove pending H2 margin recovery.
Auto-graduated 2026-05-08: ran +60% from pivot $2.5 -> $4.01. Original: Cleanest 'miner that hasn't pivoted yet' play. Announced wind-down but AI revenu
Removed by research agent 2026-05-19: Sangdong Phase 1 reached commercial production in May 2026, Q1 revenue +221% YoY, tungsten APT prices +50% YTD — pre-rally setup has substantially completed. Remaining catalysts (Montana H2 2026, Phase 2 in 2027) are now ramp-execution rather than setup-into-binary. Stock trades ALM on NASDAQ at the equivalent of ~3x the $8 add price.
scoring framework · built from synthesis of 25 prior 1,000% gainers
Group
Feature
Threshold
Auto?
Structural setup
1. Drawdown depth
≥50% off prior 2–3yr peak
✓ (250d proxy)
2. Stage 1→2 transition
Price near 50MA, 200MA flattening
✓
3. VCP — tightening volatility
ATR contracted ≥40%
✓
4. Within 25% of base low
Basing for ≥4 weeks
✓
Volume signature
5. Volume dry-up
RelVol < 0.7 of 90d avg
✓
6. Pocket pivot
Up-day vol > max down-day vol last 10
✓
7. No distribution
≤2 distribution days last 40
✓
Catalyst on deck
8. Binary event scheduled
FDA / contract / earnings <6mo
✗ (Featured only)
9. First hyperscaler contract
Recent 8-K + DC keyword density
✓ (proxy)
10. Revenue inflection
Sequential growth turning positive
✓ (RSI band proxy)
Theme + positioning
11. Hot-theme pure-play
DC/AI/HPC kw density
✓
12. Smart-money positioning
13F new pos / analyst init / Nvidia stake
✗ (cross-ref Aschenbrenner Watch)
Hard disqualifiers (skip even if 8+ hit): active SEC investigation · unresolved going-concern audit · active ATM dilution mid-base · >70% single-customer concentration with declining revenue · major lockup expiring next 30 days. Manual review of Featured setups handles these; Auto list does not — verify before acting.
Updated 2026-05-19
China & HK — Pre-Rally Pattern中国 & 香港 — 启动前形态
12-feature scan calibrated from Sept-Oct 2024 cohort · backtested across 3 regimes · 254 tickers scanned · last run 2026-05-19 19:31:03 · NOT investment advice基于 2024 年 9-10 月样本校准的 12 要素扫描 · 三种市场环境回测 · 已扫描 254 只标的 · 最近运行 2026-05-19 19:31:03 · 非投资建议
Scans the HSI + CSI 300 + STAR 50 + ChiNext top-by-mcap universe against 12 algorithmic features
calibrated from 30 prior 1,000%+ Chinese / HK winners across two cohort studies. Volatility coil (ATR≤50% of 250d peak) and macro-policy proximity are the two strongest signals.
Important: the pattern's edge is regime-dependent — high tiers strongly outperform in constructive / macro-stimulus regimes, but underperform in active sell-offs. See the Regime + Backtest panels below.
technical pattern + fundamentals tracks combined · only stocks currently passing the screen · Total: 95 active · 技术形态 + 基本面赛道合并 · 仅显示当前通过筛选的标的 · 合计: 95 只在册 · checking market hours…正在检查交易时间…
Live updates: Prices load fresh from Sina Finance API on every page open. During HK market hours (09:30-16:00 HKT, Mon-Fri) the Price + Return columns continue polling every 5s. A-shares are real-time; HK is 15-min delayed (HKEX licensing constraint — affects all free providers). Outside market hours the initial load shows the latest available close from Sina.实时更新:每次打开页面时价格均从新浪财经 API 即时加载。在港股交易时间(港股 09:30-16:00,周一至周五),价格与收益列每 5 秒持续轮询。A 股为实时数据;港股延迟 15 分钟(港交所许可限制 — 影响所有免费数据源)。非交易时段,初次加载显示新浪最新可用收盘价。
Every stock currently passing either the technical-pattern tiers (T1/T2/T3) or the fundamentals tracks (A-HK / A-CN / D-CN / D-CN-Optical). The Return column shows lifetime gain from first_seen (live-updated during HK hours), so you can see how the screen has performed since it first flagged each name. Stocks that fall out of the screen are removed from this view (still tracked internally for screener state).当前通过技术形态层级(T1/T2/T3)或基本面赛道(A-HK / A-CN / D-CN / D-CN-Optical)的所有标的。收益列显示自首次出现起的累计涨幅(港股交易时段实时更新),可查看筛选模型自首次标记起的表现。标的若不再通过筛选,即从本视图移除(内部仍追踪以维护筛选状态)。
12 algorithmic features (re-calibrated 2026-05-07 against large-cap cohort):
A drawdown ≥25% (US is 50%, original China was 30%) ·
B base ≥8 weeks ·
C ATR ≤50% of 250d peak (the killer) ·
D Stage 1→2 (P>50MA>200MA) ·
E RSI 50-70 (US is 40-65) ·
F pocket pivot last 10 ·
G ≤2 distribution days last 40 ·
H macro window within 25 sessions ·
I hot theme (optical/semis/AI/new energy/robotics/low-altitude/advanced materials) ·
J volume dry-up (50d/200d ≤0.85, looser than US 0.7) ·
K tight-coil bonus (ATR ≤35% of 250d peak — biggest runners cluster here) ·
L optical/photonics theme (50% of large-cap winners; weighted on top of I).
Tier 1 = 9–12 hits · Tier 2 = 7–8 · Tier 3 = 5–6.
12 个算法要素(2026-05-07 基于大市值队列重新校准):
A 回撤 ≥25%(美股为 50%,原中国阈值为 30%)·
B 横盘 ≥8 周 ·
C ATR ≤250 日峰值的 50%(关键要素)·
D 阶段 1→2(价>50 日均线>200 日均线)·
E RSI 50-70(美股为 40-65)·
F 最近 10 日内有 pocket pivot 信号 ·
G 最近 40 日内派发日 ≤2 天 ·
H 25 个交易日内有政策窗口 ·
I 热门主题(光通信/半导体/人工智能/新能源/机器人/低空经济/先进材料)·
J 量能干涸(50日/200日 ≤0.85,比美股 0.7 宽松)·
K 紧压缩加分(ATR ≤250 日峰值的 35% — 最大涨幅股集中于此)·
L 光通信/光子主题(占大市值赢家的 50%;在 I 之上加权)。
1 档 = 9–12 项命中 · 2 档 = 7–8 项 · 3 档 = 5–6 项。
setups by theme · Total: 253 across 18 themes · concentration tells you where the next macro spark might land按主题分类的形态 · 合计: 253 只 / 18 个主题 · 集中度提示下一次宏观催化可能的着力点
new_energy新能源HOT热门
37
consumer消费
37
semis半导体HOT热门
37
healthcare医疗
34
financial金融
32
internet互联网
11
industrial工业
11
materials材料
10
optical光通信HOT热门
8
telecom电信
8
energy能源
7
ai_compute人工智能算力HOT热门
6
advanced_materials先进材料HOT热门
4
property地产
4
utility公用事业
3
robotics机器人HOT热门
2
diversified多元化
1
low_altitude低空经济HOT热门
1
🇭🇰 HK Fundamentals — Track A-HK香港基本面 — 赛道 A-HK
Track A-style fundamentals filter · Total: 15 passed of 64 scored (64 universe) · last run 2026-05-08 13:28:44 · see scoring赛道 A 风格基本面筛选 · 合计: 15 只 通过 / 64 只评分(标的池 64) · 最近运行 2026-05-08 13:28:44 · 查看评分
Phase 1 — uncalibrated: uses US Q2 calibration weights as priors. Q1-CN/HK calibration auto-scheduled Jul 8 (after US Q3 calibration on Jul 7). Phase 2 will add HKEX / cninfo filings keyword scanning + Northbound Stock Connect flow as the CN-native conviction signal. NOT investment advice.第一阶段 — 未校准:使用美股 Q2 校准权重作为先验。Q1 中港校准已自动安排在 7 月 8 日(在 7 月 7 日美股 Q3 校准之后)。第二阶段将加入港交所 / 巨潮资讯财报关键词扫描 + 北向陆股通资金流作为中国本土的确信度信号。非投资建议。
🔍 How Track A is filtered (methodology)🔍 赛道 A 筛选机制(方法论)
click to collapse点击收起
Track A is the "high-quality, growing, cheap, profitable" filter — mirrors US Track A's small-mid value-with-growth philosophy, currency-converted to local thresholds. Each candidate must pass ALL hard gates, then is ranked by score.赛道 A 是"高品质、高成长、低估值、已盈利"的筛选器——对应美股赛道 A 的小中盘"成长加价值"理念,门槛已按汇率转换为本地货币。每个候选标的必须通过所有硬门槛,然后按评分排序。
Step 1 — Universe第 1 步 — 标的池
china_universe.json — 254 curated names across HSI top components, CSI 300 top, STAR 50, ChiNext top by market cap. Universe-level mcap floor: ¥3B / HK$3B. HK names route to Track A-HK; A-shares route to Track A-CN.china_universe.json — 254 个精选标的,涵盖恒指主要成分股、沪深 300 头部、科创 50、创业板按市值前列。标的池基础市值门槛:¥30 亿 / HK$30 亿。港股进入赛道 A-HK,A 股进入赛道 A-CN。
Daily / quarterly conviction signals fetched and attached to each candidate; rendered as columns on the card. Calibration on Jul 8 will measure each signal's winner-vs-loser differential and promote validated ones (≥30pp = gate, 15-30pp = +5 modifier, ≤-15pp = penalty) to scoring weight:每日/季度的确信度信号被获取并附加到每个候选;以列形式显示在卡上。校准将于 7 月 8 日测量每个信号的赢家-输家差异,验证后(≥30pp = 门槛、15-30pp = +5 加分、≤-15pp = 减分)将晋升至评分权重:
Institutional research visits (机构调研) — 30-day count; forward-looking signal (funds visit before buying)机构调研 — 过去 30 日次数;前瞻信号(基金买入前先调研)
Top 25 by score render as the Track A card visible above. Full passing set (all candidates that met Step 2 gates) is logged to the Fundamentals Lifetime Tracker for forward-looking validation — symbols stay tracked even after they drop out, so we can measure whether the screener's picks actually outperform.按评分前 25 名渲染到上方的赛道 A 卡片。完整通过列表(所有通过第 2 步硬门槛的候选)记录到"基本面终身追踪器"以便前瞻性验证——标的即使后续掉出仍保留追踪,以便测量筛选器的选股是否真的跑赢。
why some kw_dc<20 names are still in the card · each candidate's primary path through the compound precision filter (3 paths, any one = pass)解释为何部分 kw_dc<20 标的仍在赛道 D-CN 卡中 · 每个候选标的的主要资格路径(三条精准路径,任一通过即可)
🔥 High Density (kw_dc ≥ 20)🔥 高密度 (算力 ≥ 20)
6 candidates只
Annual report mentions data_center 20+ times. Q1-CN sub-cohort: 45% of DC-winners hit this density vs 0% of DC-losers (+45pp differential). Strongest standalone signal.年报提及"数据中心" 20 次以上。Q1-CN 子样本:45% DC 赢家达到此密度,0% DC 输家(+45 个百分点差异)。最强单一信号。
Cross-keyword winning pattern. Q1-CN sub-cohort: 64% of DC-winners also mention optical_module vs 0% of DC-losers (+64pp differential). Strongest cross-keyword combo.跨关键词获胜模式。Q1-CN 子样本:64% DC 赢家同时提及光模块,0% DC 输家(+64 个百分点差异)。最强跨关键词组合。
Catches names like CATL / EVE / Cambricon with aggressive growth but lower-density DC mentions. Mirrors US Track D's "no financial pre-filter" approach (which catches BE / CRDO / AAOI archetypes).捕捉如宁德时代 / 亿纬锂能 / 寒武纪等增长激进但 DC 提及较少的标的。对应美股 Track D 的"无财务预过滤"理念(捕捉 BE / CRDO / AAOI 原型)。
Symbol代码
Name名称
Theme主题
Score
kw_dc
kw_optical
Rev%
688256.SS
CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES CORPORAT寒武纪
ai_compute
59.1
12
0
159.6%
300750.SZ
CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY宁德时代
new_energy
49.2
5
0
52.4%
300014.SZ
EVE ENERGY CO LTD亿纬锂能
new_energy
46.6
8
1
61.6%
🧠 What Separates CN Winners from Losers (Sub-Cohort Findings)🧠 中国赢家与输家的区别(子样本研究发现)
Question: given a CN stock mentions "data_center" in its annual report, what tier-2 signal separates the eventual winners from the eventual losers? Answer: mentioning the keyword is necessary but NOT sufficient. The real winners differ in 6 measurable ways:问题: 假设某中国股票在年报提及"数据中心",哪些第二层信号能区分最终赢家与输家?答案: 提及关键词是必要但不充分条件。真正的赢家在 6 个可量化维度上不同:
1. Winners mention "data_center" WAY more often1. 赢家提及"数据中心"次数远多于输家
Winners: 21+ mentions avg. Losers: ~9 mentions. Winners are actually building DC infrastructure as core business; losers are name-dropping the buzzword.赢家平均≥21 次提及。输家约 9 次。赢家以数据中心建设为核心业务;输家只是蹭热点。
2. Winners stack themes; losers mention only one2. 赢家叠加多个主题,输家只提一个
64% of DC-winners ALSO mention "optical" + "capacity expansion". 0% of DC-losers do. Real winners say "we make optical modules for data centers and we're expanding capacity"; losers just say "data centers."64% DC 赢家同时提及"光通信"+"产能扩张"。0% DC 输家如此。真赢家说"我们做数据中心光模块且在扩产";输家只说"我们涉足数据中心"。
3. Winners are profitable + growing; losers are zombies3. 赢家盈利且高增长;输家是僵尸股
Winners: rev growth +80%/yr, op margin 40%. Losers: rev SHRINKING -3%, op margin only 6%. A stock can talk DC and still be a dying business — keyword alone isn't enough.赢家:营收增长+80%/年,经营利润率40%。输家:营收-3% 萎缩,利润率仅 6%。提及数据中心不等于真业务在跑;关键词远远不够。
4. Smart money knows the difference4. 聪明钱能分辨真假
Winners held by 139 mutual funds avg; losers by only 37. ~4x more institutional investors in real winners. Fund managers can tell who's actually building DC infra vs who's pitching it.赢家平均被139 只公募基金持有;输家仅37 只。真赢家被约 4 倍机构资金持仓。基金经理能看出谁是真做谁是假说。
5. "AI" alone is meaningless5. 单纯提"AI"没有意义
100% of winners AND 100% of losers mention AI. Every Chinese tech company says "AI" right now — hearing it tells you nothing about whether they're a winner.100% 赢家 + 100% 输家都提 AI。每家中国科技公司现在都在说 AI——听到这个词无法判断是否是真赢家。
6. Sector matters within the keyword group6. 即使在同关键词组内,行业也很重要
Mentioning "data_center" is necessary but NOT sufficient. Real winners (a) say it OFTEN (20+ times), (b) pair it with optical + capacity_expansion, (c) are already profitable + high-growth, and (d) are owned by 4x more mutual funds. This is exactly why Track D-CN's gate is the compound kw_dc≥20 OR (kw_dc≥10 AND kw_optical≥5) OR rev_growth≥30% — it captures the actual winning pattern instead of letting through every company that name-drops "data center" once.提及"数据中心"是必要但不充分条件。真赢家:(a) 频繁提(20 次以上),(b) 同时提光通信 + 产能扩张,(c) 已盈利 + 高增长,(d) 被约 4 倍机构资金持仓。这正是赛道 D-CN 采用复合门槛 kw_dc≥20 或 (kw_dc≥10 且 kw_optical≥5) 或 营收增长≥30% 的原因——只捕捉真正获胜的模式,而非每个偶然提及"数据中心"的公司。
Sample size caveat: n=11 winners + 3 losers within DC sub-cohort (Q1-CN cohort). Findings strong enough to act on (45-82pp differentials), but Q3 calibration (Jul 8) with n=40 cohort will tighten confidence intervals. Source: research/china_pattern/cn_subcohort_dc_2026-05-07.md样本量警告: DC 子样本 n=11 赢家 + 3 输家 (Q1-CN 数据集)。差异显著(45-82 个百分点)足以采取行动,但 Q3 校准(7 月 8 日)将以 n=40 样本进一步收窄置信区间。来源:research/china_pattern/cn_subcohort_dc_2026-05-07.md
Upcoming Macro Windows即将到来的政策窗口
policy events that historically catalyse China rallies · coiled setups within ±25 sessions get feature H历史上催化中国行情的政策事件 · 在 ±25 个交易日内的压缩形态获得 H 特征加分
why China thresholds differ · from research/china_pattern/winners_analysis.md为何中国阈值不同 · 来源 research/china_pattern/winners_analysis.md
Feature要素
US Threshold美股阈值
China Threshold中国阈值
Why原因
Drawdown回撤
≥50%
≥30%
China cohort median was 36%; the US 50% threshold catches 0% of winners.中国队列中位数为 36%;美股 50% 阈值无法捕捉任何中国大牛股。
Base length横盘时长
≥12w preferred建议 ≥12 周
≥8 w周
China bases are shorter; cohort median 10.8w.中国横盘期较短;队列中位数为 10.8 周。
RSI entry zoneRSI 入场区间
40–65
50–70
A-shares break from already-strong momentum baselines.A 股往往从原本动能就较强的基准位置突破。
Volume dry-up量能干涸
RV≤0.7
RV≤0.85
Different microstructure (T+1, daily 10/20% price limits, retail-driven). Looser threshold or feature is too rare.市场微观结构不同(T+1、每日 10/20% 涨跌停、散户主导)。需要更宽松的阈值,否则该要素过于罕见。
100% original / 79% large-cap at ≤50%. Tight coil (≤35%) is over-represented in the biggest runners (Henan Shijia 0.35x → +1760%, Anhui Tongguan 0.20x → +665%) — gets its own feature.原始队列 100% / 大市值队列 79% 处于 ≤50%。紧压缩(≤35%)在最大涨幅股中出现频率更高(河南世嘉 0.35 倍 → +1760%,安徽铜冠 0.20 倍 → +665%)— 单独设为一个要素。
Optical/photonics density光通信/光子密度
(part of US DC theme)(美股归入数据中心主题)
Own feature L独立要素 L
27% of original cohort, 50% of large-cap cohort. China-side AI infrastructure trade. Weighted on top of the broad I_hot_theme.原始队列占 27%,大市值队列占 50%。中国版人工智能基础设施交易。在 I 大类热门主题之上加权。
Catalyst layer催化层
US 8-K hyperscaler tell美股 8-K 超大规模云厂商信号
Macro-policy proximity政策窗口邻近度
53% of cohort broke out in a 13-day window around Sept 24, 2024 PBoC stimulus. Macro window proximity is a feature, not a footnote.53% 的队列在 2024 年 9 月 24 日央行刺激政策前后 13 天的窗口内突破。政策窗口邻近度是核心要素,而非脚注。
Theme density主题密度
US data center / AI美股数据中心 / AI
Optical / semis / advanced materials / AI / new energy / robotics / low-altitude光通信 / 半导体 / 先进材料 / 人工智能 / 新能源 / 机器人 / 低空经济
4 of 15 winners (27%) were optical transceivers. China-side AI infrastructure stack.15 只赢家中有 4 只(27%)是光模块。中国版人工智能基础设施栈。
Excludes pure HK micro-cap shells (1757, 2442, 3928 type) — those ran on listing/float dynamics, not pre-rally technicals. ¥3B / HK$3B mcap floor on the universe.
Manual Featured-Setups curation (specific per-stock catalysts, smart-money tells) is deferred to v2 — v1 is auto-detected only.已剔除港股纯壳微盘股(1757、2442、3928 类)— 那些标的是靠上市/流通量动态而非启动前技术形态运行的。标的池设有 ¥30 亿 / HK$30 亿市值下限。
人工策展精选形态(个股特定催化因素、聪明钱信号)推迟至 v2 版本 — v1 仅含自动检测。
Broad-Market Regime大盘环境
CSI 300 + HSI vs 200d MA · the screener requires constructive market to convert setups · as-of 2026-05-19沪深 300 + 恒指相对于 200 日均线 · 扫描器需要建设性市场环境才能促成有效形态 · 截至 2026-05-19
CAUTIOUS谨慎
CSI 300:沪深 300: 4852.9 · +6.1% vs 200MA相对 200 日均线 +6.1% · 50MA +2.5% vs 200MA50 日均线相对 200 日均线 +2.5%
HSI:恒指: 25797.8 · -0.8% vs 200MA相对 200 日均线 -0.8% · 50MA -0.9% vs 200MA50 日均线相对 200 日均线 -0.9%
What this means:
mixed signals — one or both indices show ambiguous trend. Edge is positive but smaller; bias toward Tier 2/3 names with deeper drawdowns and tighter coils.
含义:
信号混杂 — 一个或两个指数趋势不明。优势仍为正但较小;倾向于回撤更深、压缩更紧的 2/3 档标的。
Backtest — Three Regimes回测 — 三种市场环境
forward 1Y returns by tier, computed using only data available on each as-of date (no look-ahead) · from research/china_pattern/_backtest.py按分档计算的未来 1 年收益,仅使用各截止日已有的数据(无前视偏差)· 来源 research/china_pattern/_backtest.py
Scoring the same 12-feature framework at three historical points and measuring what each tier actually returned over the next year. The edge is conditional on the broad-market regime — positive in constructive / flat tape, negative in active sell-offs.在三个历史时点用相同的 12 要素框架评分,衡量各档标的接下来一年实际的收益。优势取决于大盘环境 — 在建设性/横盘行情中为正,在主动抛售期为负。
As-Of Date截止日
Regime环境
Universe标的池
T1 (n)1档 (n)
T2 (n)2档 (n)
T3 (n)3档 (n)
T2 edge2档优势
2023-06-30
Active sell-off (Q3 2023 property crisis)主动抛售 (Q3 2023 地产危机)
Macro stimulus (1d before PBoC pivot)宏观刺激 (1d 央行转向之前)
+51.5%
+884.6% (2)
+95.5% (27)
+60.8% (105)
+44.0 pp
Read this carefully: in the 2023-06-30 active sell-off, T2 picks lost 28.7% median over the next year — that's 17 pp below the universe baseline. The framework's edge requires a constructive or stimulus regime. Match the screener's signal to the regime indicator above before acting.请仔细阅读:在 2023-06-30 主动抛售期,2 档标的接下来一年下跌中位数 28.7% — 比标的池基准低 17 个百分点。该框架的优势需要建设性或刺激政策环境。在行动前,请将扫描器的信号与上方的环境指示对应。
The screener runs six tracks daily (A/B/C/D/E/G), each reverse-engineered from a different winner archetype. Strict filters mean most days return 0–2 names per track — rarity is the signal. Filter specs evolve as quarterly calibration produces new evidence.
Automation Schedule
Windows Task Scheduler · all times Melbourne AEST (UTC+10/+11)
Pulls latest 13F filings for the 11 tracked funds, computes QoQ position diffs, refreshes fund_tickers_latest.json + leaderboard data on Funds tab
Thu 20 Aug, 07:00
Quarterly Calibration
calibrate.py
Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct 7, 07:00
Top 50 winners + bottom 50 losers by 90d return ($1B+ universe), pulls pre-period 10-K + Form 4 data, computes differential discriminator table → drives screener gate adjustments. Also writes calibration_winners_latest.json for Track E.
Tue 7 Jul, 07:00
Annual Discover
discover.py
Jan 20, 02:00
Full EDGAR fund rescan (~5.5 hr). Surfaces new high-CAGR funds for inclusion in fund_registry.json. Runs with --no-write so user reviews candidates before promotion.
Wed 20 Jan 2027, 02:00
The daily screener skips Sun/Mon because US markets are closed weekends — Tue 06:30 Melbourne ≈ Mon ~16:30 ET, after US close. The quarterly cadences match the SEC's 13F filing window (45-day lag) and the natural calendar quarter boundary respectively.
⭐ Q2-2026 Calibration Findings
n=99 (49 winners + 50 losers, $1B+ universe, 90d return) · rescanned 2026-05-07 with 10-K + 10-Q — data_center differential strengthened +6pp vs prior 10-K-only run
Signal
Winner %
Loser %
Differential
Verdict / Action
op_margin > 0%
profitability
50%
11%
+39pp
⭐ STRONGEST overall · score +5 on all tracks (extended A/B/C/E 2026-05-07)
data_center
59%
22%
+37pp
⭐ STRONGEST keyword · Track D primary gate (was +31pp on 10-K only)
design_wins
chip-cohort signal
14%
0%
+14pp
~ weak positive · info-only (low base rate)
electrification
10%
0%
+10pp
~ weak positive · Track D/G score +1 (kw≥5)
grid
6%
0%
+6pp
~ weak positive · info-only
rare_earth
6%
0%
+6pp
~ weak positive · info-only
analyst_count > 15
over-coverage
9 (med)
17 (med)
losers 2x
⚠ Track D/G score −3
ai_ml
buzzword pivot
57%
72%
−15pp
⚠ INVERSE · anti-gate ACTIVE: −5 if kw_ai_ml≥10 AND kw_data_center<5 (was −21pp on 10-K only)
insider_buys
open-market 6mo pre-run, broad
18%
48%
−30pp
⚠ INVERSE · Track D bonus only when kw_data_center≥10
hyperscaler
4%
0%
+4pp
DEMOTED · low base rate, doesn’t discriminate
cybersecurity
universal disclosure
94%
96%
~0pp
DROPPED · pure noise
10-K + 10-Q rescan (2026-05-07) takeaways: data_center strengthened +6pp by adding 10-Q text (winners now avg 35.7 DC mentions vs losers 16.5) — confirms quarterly filings carry the freshest narrative shifts and justifies the dual-filing scan as the new default. ai_ml inverse signal softened (−21pp → −15pp) but stays strong enough to keep the buzzword-pivot anti-gate active on Track D/G. 4 weak-positive signals surfaced from the rescan (design_wins, electrification, grid, rare_earth) — base rate too low for hard gates yet, all info-only except electrification which carries a +1 score nudge when kw≥5.
Sub-cohort analysis (within DC-mention stocks, n=40): the differentiator between DC winners and DC losers is DC keyword density (winners avg 35.7 mentions, losers avg 16.5) and profitability. Industry concentration: 79% of DC winners are in semiconductors, engineering & construction, communication equipment, or computer hardware. Next calibration: 2026-Q3 (auto-scheduled Jul 7) — will validate emerging keywords (quantum, humanoid, fusion, agent_ai, llm, space_launch).
Universe$300M–$3B mkt cap · $5–$100 share price · sector match (same map as Track A)
Hard GatesRev growth >40% · P/S <10 · no ROE gate · Rel Vol >1.5× · Analyst count <8
ScoringBase 100 formula (same as Track A) + profitability (op_margin > 0%) +5 · no other track-specific bonuses (no backlog/insider/kw enrichment on Track B by design)
Why: catches faster-growing pre-profit names where higher rev growth justifies looser P/S & no ROE requirement. CRDO/BE/IONQ pattern.
Track C — Spinoff Reset
SNDK archetype · recent IPO / spinoff with megatrend exposure
Universe$1B–$15B mkt cap (broader, mid-cap-friendly) · $5–$200 share price · sector match
Hard GatesFirst-trade epoch within last 18 months · sector match · no financial gates (spinoffs often weak fundamentals at the dip — that’s the setup)
ScoringBase 100 + profitability (op_margin > 0%) +5 · no other track-specific bonuses
Why: parent companies hide value via accounting. The dip post-spinoff is when forced sellers offload — pre–rerating window. SNDK pattern.
Track D — Megatrend Narrative VALIDATED 91%
DC infrastructure thesis · reverse-engineered from 11-stock validation cluster (FIX/IESC/CRDO/STRL/AGX/POWL/VRT/BE/AAOI/LITE/AEHR)
Universe$300M–$5B mkt cap · $5–$100 share price · sector match · no financial pre-filter (would reject 9 of the 11 validation winners)
Why: data center buildout is THE structural tailwind. Strong narrative + behavioral confirmation (insider OR very high kw density) catches the FIX/IESC pattern at 91% recall on the validation set, +31pp differential on Q2 broad universe.
Track E — Validated Continuation
Stage-2 breakout · 90d winners that still pass relaxed Track A · multi-leg compounders
SourceTop 50 winners by 90d return from calibrate.py (refreshed quarterly Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct 7); metrics refresh daily on each screener run
Universe$300M–$15B mkt cap (broadened from Track A) · $5–$100 share price · sector match
Hard GatesRev growth ≥20% (raised from Track A’s 15%) · P/S ≤5 (relaxed from 3) · ROE ≥10% (relaxed from 15) · Rel Vol ≥1.5× · insider buys ≥1 in last 90d
Why: a stock that’s already run +60% over 90d but STILL trades cheap on growth-adjusted metrics + insiders are STILL buying = the multiple is compressing under earnings expansion. FIX did this for 4+ years before it became a household name.
Track G — Power & Compute Hosting
Aschenbrenner thesis · BTC-miner pivots + power generation · catches names Track D’s DC keyword misses
Universe$300M–$15B mkt cap (wider than Track D) · $5–$100 share price · no industry whitelist (BTC miners get tagged “Capital Markets”; power gens “Oil & Gas” — let keywords filter)
Hard Gateskw_hpc_hosting ≥ 3ORkw_power_for_dc ≥ 3 in latest 10-K + 10-Q. Regex broadened 2026-05-07 after Q2 rescan showed original narrow patterns caught 0% of winners — now matches "AI infrastructure", "AI training", "high-performance computing", "MW capacity", "PPA", "small modular reactor", etc.
Why: Aschenbrenner’s 13F is 50% in BTC miners pivoting to AI hosting (CORZ/IREN/APLD) and power generators (BE/EQT/BW/SEI). Track D’s data_center keyword misses these because their 10-Ks talk “hashrate” or “PPA,” not “data center.” Track G fills the gap.
Track H — Buildout Capital Deployment SHIPPED 2026-05-07
Aschenbrenner archetype as filter · capital-intensive growth at premium price · reverse-engineered from his Q4 2025 13F via two-script fingerprint discovery
Universe$300M–$15B mkt cap (wider than Track D, matching Track G) · $5–$100 share price · no industry whitelist
Hard Gatescapex_to_revenue > 0.20 (Aschenbrenner median 0.38 vs baseline 0.04 = 89th pct) ANDrev_growth_yoy > 15% (median +25% vs +5.7%) ANDps_ratio > 3 (median 10.5x vs 2.2x — opposite of Track A’s P/S<3 value gate) AND at least one thesis kw cluster: kw_data_center ≥ 5ORkw_power_gen ≥ 3ORkw_convertible_growth ≥ 3
SourceValidated 2026-05-07 against 25 holdings of Situational Awareness LP (Q4 2025 13F) vs 100-ticker random universe baseline. Three thesis kw clusters surfaced from discover_fund_fingerprint.py: data_center +74.6pp, convertible_growth +55.5pp, power_gen +49.2pp differential. Financial archetype confirmed via discover_fund_financial_fingerprint.py. Re-validation against Q1 2026 13F scheduled 2026-05-15.
Why: Aschenbrenner’s archetype is “capital-intensive growth at premium price” — companies physically building infrastructure (capex 38% of revenue = ~10x baseline), funded with debt+convertibles (low cash, elevated D/E), at premium multiples (P/S 10.5x), with the growth to partially justify it (rev +25%, earnings +42%) but currently sub-par returns (ROE 3.8%, op margin 0.4%) because they’re reinvesting. Distinct from Track A (cheap+profitable+low-growth) AND Track D (megatrend keyword without financial archetype) AND Track G (keyword-only, no quantitative gates).
SourceLatest 13F holdings cached in output/fund_cache/fund_tickers_latest.json (refreshed quarterly by watcher.py)
Effect+5 to score on any Track D or Track G candidate appearing in his current top holdings. Independent screen surfacing a name he already owns is a strong validation signal.
Watch ListHis NEW positions (vs prior 13F) render as the blue-bordered callout at the top of the Screener tab — leading indicator before they show up in tracks.
Quarterly Calibration — 2026-Q2
Top 50 winners + bottom 50 losers by 90d return ($1B+ universe) · ran 2026-05-07 00:26 Melbourne
The screener's empirical evidence base. Each quarter, calibrate.py identifies the top winners and bottom losers across the broad $1B+ universe by 90-day return, pulls each company's pre-period 10-K and Form 4 filings, then computes which signals discriminated. Strong discriminators (≥30pp differential) become Track D/G gates. Inverse signals get penalized. Promiscuous signals (similar prevalence in winners and losers) get demoted.
Sample Size
99
49 winners + 50 losers
Top Discriminator
data_center +37pp
winners 59% vs losers 22%
Insider Buying (Winners)
18%
vs 48% in losers
Differential Discriminator Table
winner % minus loser % per signal · only signals with ≥30pp diff become hard gates
Keyword
Winner %
Loser %
Differential
Verdict
data_center
59%
22%
+37pp
⭐ STRONG discriminator (gate)
design_wins
14%
0%
+14pp
~ weak
electrification
10%
0%
+10pp
~ weak
grid
6%
0%
+6pp
~ weak
rare_earth
6%
0%
+6pp
~ weak
hyperscaler
4%
0%
+4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
gpu
6%
2%
+4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
edge_computing
4%
0%
+4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
copper
6%
2%
+4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
ransomware
8%
4%
+4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
nuclear
4%
2%
+2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
power_for_dc
2%
0%
+2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
biotech
8%
8%
+0pp
— promiscuous (drop)
battery_storage
4%
6%
-2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
operating_leverage
0%
2%
-2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
satellite
6%
8%
-2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
quantum
0%
2%
-2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
autonomous
0%
2%
-2pp
— promiscuous (drop)
lithium
2%
6%
-4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
anti_drone
0%
4%
-4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
hypersonic
0%
4%
-4pp
— promiscuous (drop)
drone
2%
8%
-6pp
— promiscuous (drop)
ai_ml
57%
72%
-15pp
⚠ INVERSE (loser signal)
Top 10 Winners
sorted by 90d return · the empirical base for calibration
Symbol
Industry
Price
MCap
90d Return
Run Start
DC kw
AI kw
HPC kw
Insider buys
Insider $
AXTI
Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
$107.55
$7.0B
+504.2%
2026-02-05
25
3
—
—
—
AAOI
Communication Equipment
$180.57
$14B
+417.5%
2026-02-05
112
2
—
11
$1,274,734
LWLG
Specialty Chemicals
$16.72
$2.4B
+388.9%
2026-02-05
43
16
—
—
—
MXL
Semiconductors
$81.68
$7.1B
+343.9%
2026-03-06
39
24
—
—
—
AEHR
Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
$91.19
$2.9B
+240.5%
2026-02-05
9
10
—
—
—
FSLY
Software - Application
$32.36
$4.9B
+230.9%
2026-02-05
34
6
—
—
—
MANE
Biotechnology
$114.80
$4.7B
+204.1%
2026-02-09
—
—
—
7
$43,549,971
LITE
Communication Equipment
$994.56
$71B
+199.2%
2026-02-05
64
12
—
—
—
SNDK
Computer Hardware
$1,406.32
$207B
+198.7%
2026-03-06
25
13
—
—
—
DOCN
Software - Infrastructure
$152.77
$16B
+159.2%
2026-03-04
83
33
—
—
—
Bottom 10 Losers
control group · sorted by 90d return ascending
Symbol
Industry
Price
MCap
90d Return
Run Start
DC kw
AI kw
HPC kw
Insider buys
Insider $
EOSE
Electrical Equipment & Parts
$6.23
$2.1B
-61.5%
2026-03-30
8
2
—
4
$692,962
BRBR
Packaged Foods
$10.63
$1.2B
-58.4%
2026-05-05
2
—
—
1
$35,500
GPCR
Biotechnology
$41.10
$2.9B
-54.1%
2026-05-05
—
20
—
—
—
FLNC
Utilities - Renewable
$12.69
$2.3B
-53.2%
2026-04-29
7
12
—
—
—
EPAM
Information Technology Service
$109.64
$5.8B
-50.3%
2026-05-05
3
11
—
20
$149,999
GRAL
Diagnostics & Research
$54.40
$2.4B
-48.8%
2026-02-23
1
22
—
—
—
CSGP
Real Estate Services
$34.90
$14B
-47.0%
2026-04-29
8
14
—
4
$3,480,554
KTOS
Aerospace & Defense
$59.31
$11B
-46.7%
2026-05-05
—
6
—
—
—
COMP
Real Estate Services
$7.26
$5.4B
-46.5%
2026-04-07
1
10
—
—
—
AVAV
Aerospace & Defense
$166.69
$8.4B
-44.9%
2026-05-05
—
8
—
—
—
Winner Industry Concentration
where the wins are clustering · informs sector mapping & track design
Industry
Winner Count
% of Winners
Biotechnology
8
16%
Semiconductors
7
14%
Engineering & Construction
7
14%
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
5
10%
Communication Equipment
4
8%
Computer Hardware
3
6%
Electrical Equipment & Parts
3
6%
Specialty Chemicals
2
4%
Software - Application
2
4%
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
2
4%
LLM Agent Reviews
Powered by Claude · reads filings + news daily · not financial advice
Signal Tracker — Lifetime Returns
every ticker the analyst has reviewed · retains removed names so lifetime return stays visible · 9 tracked · updated 2026-05-16T13:49
Same concept as the Signal Tracker on the Technicals tab. Every ticker that's ever appeared in the daily LLM analyst pass stays in this list permanently — even after it drops out of the active picks set — so lifetime return from first review is always visible. Active = in the latest review. Removed = previously reviewed, now off the active picks.
Tracked
9
8 active
Win Rate
0%
0 of 9
Avg Return
-2%
mean across all picks
Total Return
-18%
sum across all picks
Best Pick
+0.0%
lifetime high
Symbol
Entry $
Now $
1D%
Return
First Score
State
First Seen
Days
Catalyst
Removed Reason
News
BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc.
$30.85
$30.85
-1.15%
+0.0%
5/10
active
2026-05-16
0
Q2 2026 earnings (late July) — first read on commercial traction of the newly-launched Fundraising Development Agent and whether AI agent pricing can re-accelerate organic growth above the 4% floor.
Continued monthly BTC accumulation disclosures and post-Semler integration updates; next SATA dividend pays 2026-05-15 and any further M&A (cash-rich-shell acquisitions) would re-rate the stock.
Q2 2026 earnings expected late July/early August, where the market will test whether the raised FY guide ($1.89-1.92B revenue, $540-555M EBITDA) is being de-risked or stretched.
Q2 2026 earnings in late July, with continued read-through on hyperscaler AI infrastructure ramp (Microsoft DDoS deal) and whether 10–12% full-year guide proves conservative.
Q2 2026 earnings in late July, where management has guided to more H1-weighted EPS growth — beat-and-raise probability elevated after Q1 beat and reaffirmed $5.56-$5.72 FY guide.
Q1 2026 earnings ~May 26 (10 days out), then first commercial shipments of Si-28/C-14/Yb-176 ramping through 2026 and Helium Phase 1 nameplate capacity in Q3 2026.
Q2 2026 earnings (~August 2026) will be the first full quarter with ALGC on board and is the critical proof point for the ≥20% Adj. EBITDA margin target; additional data center contract wins in NC/GA are live near-term catalysts.
2026-05-20 07:39·claude-opus-4-7·2/8 high conviction
CAI
7/10
Trap risk: medium
Catalyst: near Recommended
Next catalyst: ASCO Annual Meeting (late May/early June 2026) — data readouts and biopharma-partnership announcements are the next near-term tape mover for a molecular-profiling name.
Caris just printed a clean inflection quarter the screener is picking up: Q1 2026 revenue $216M (+79% YoY), molecular profiling +85%, gross margin 65% (+1,800bps), and crucially the first quarter of positive free cash flow ($22.5M) — moving the story from cash-burning growth to self-funding scale. The 1M+ tumor clinico-genomic database is a genuine moat for biopharma-partnership and trial-recruitment economics, harder to replicate than Tempus's pure-AI positioning. At $15.25 (~45% below IPO) with 13 analysts averaging $28 PT (Strong Buy), sentiment lags fundamentals — a classic post-IPO disappointment-then-inflection setup. Quant score of 55.9 understates because growth screeners penalize the optical deceleration baked into the $1.0–1.02B guide; Q1 run-rate already annualizes well above the high end, suggesting sandbag. Invalidation: a soft Q2 print confirming the guide isn't conservative, a large secondary offering, or Tempus/Foundation undercutting on price for therapy-selection panels.
Key risks (4)
Guidance implies material H2 deceleration — guide-down on Q2 print would break the inflection narrative
FY26 guide implies sharp deceleration from Q1's +79% YoY to ~30% — back-half could disappoint if not sandbagged
Crowded competitive set (Tempus AI, Foundation/Roche, Guardant) with pricing pressure if payers shift to narrower panels
ACIW
7/10
Trap risk: low
Catalyst: medium Recommended
Next catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings report expected late July / early August, with guidance of $420-440M revenue and continued real-time payments / merchant momentum to validate.
ACIW is a fintech infrastructure name where the tape and the fundamentals have diverged. Q1 2026 delivered $426M revenue (+8%), adj EBITDA +12%, adj EPS $0.61 vs $0.33 consensus (a 117% beat), and new ARR bookings +39% YoY — driven by Real-Time Payments and Merchant both growing 20%+ in constant currency. Management raised full-year revenue ($1.89-1.92B) and adj EBITDA ($540-555M) guidance, yet the stock sits near $42 against an 11-analyst median price target of $60 (~44% upside) with 5 Buys / 1 Hold / 0 Sells. The market appears anchored on Q4 2025's GAAP miss and trailing net-margin compression (16.1% → 11.5%) rather than the booking acceleration and the $65M Q1 buyback (50-60% of OCF guided for repurchases). A director also made an open-market buy at $41.90 in March — small but directionally confirming. The setup is a quality-compounder discount with a clear re-rating catalyst at Q2 print. Invalidation: any new sign that GAAP margin erosion is structural (not mix/amortization-driven) or that bookings momentum stalls.
Key risks (4)
GAAP net-margin compression from 16.1% to 11.5% — if structural rather than mix-driven, multiple expansion is capped
Biller segment is lower-margin and more competitive than Payment Software; revenue mix shift could pressure consolidated margins
Real-time payments competitive landscape intensifying (FedNow, Visa Direct, Mastercard Send) may erode pricing power
Adjusted EPS heavily reliant on add-backs vs GAAP; valuation case weakens if investors re-anchor to GAAP earnings
APLD
6/10
Trap risk: medium
Catalyst: medium Recommended
Next catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings (mid-July) plus Polaris Forge 1 second 150MW phase coming online in calendar 2026 — both will test whether contracted backlog converts to GAAP revenue on schedule.
APLD is a credible HPC infrastructure pure-play that has successfully pivoted from crypto-mining into hyperscaler-leased AI data centers. The May 2026 $7.5B, 15-year Delta Forge 1 lease with an investment-grade hyperscaler, layered onto the existing CoreWeave Polaris Forge contract, gives APLD roughly $16B of contracted revenue backlog over 15 years — a quality signal the quant screener correctly flagged via growth + 13F fund-thesis fingerprint overlap with capital-intensive data-center theses. Q3 FY26 revenue +139% YoY to $126.6M validates the operational ramp. What the market may not fully price: a 30%+ short interest base against contracted revenue creates asymmetric squeeze potential on any execution beat. What invalidates: any hyperscaler renegotiation, construction delay at Polaris Forge 1 phase 2, or further large equity raises that compress per-share economics. Position sizing should reflect the 39.9x P/S — a powerful business at a price that demands flawless execution.
Key risks (4)
Capital intensity — $3B Polaris Forge 2 plus Delta Forge build-outs require continued debt + equity raises; bridge facility maturity creates refinancing risk
Customer concentration on two hyperscalers (CoreWeave + unnamed investment-grade tenant) — any contract renegotiation hits the whole story
Valuation: 39.9x P/S after a +70% 30-day move leaves no cushion for construction delays or power/utility cost overruns
30%+ short interest cuts both ways — signals informed skepticism on execution / dilution path, even though it sets up squeeze optionality
Trap reasons (3)
Stock +69.8% in 30 days post-$7.5B lease news — most near-term catalysts already priced in
P/S ~39.9x is extreme even for AI infra peer set; little margin for execution slips
Heavy share dilution: 224.9M → 285.4M shares in 9 months (+27%); capex-intensive model needs continued equity/bridge financing
BLKB
6/10
Trap risk: medium
Catalyst: medium Recommended
Next catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings late July/August plus ongoing $1B buyback (5–10% of float to be retired in 2026) — incremental Development Agent / agentic-AI adoption datapoints could re-rate the multiple.
Luna3's screener is picking up a quality-compounder masquerading as growth: Q1 2026 operating margin widened 1,100 bps to 18.3%, free cash flow nearly doubled to $37M, and management is shrinking the float 5–10% in 2026 against a reaffirmed $5.15–$5.25 EPS guide. The market is treating BLKB as a sleepy social-sector SaaS (consensus Hold, mid-$40s tape) and missing the operating-leverage inflection plus the optionality from the newly-shipped Development Agent — the first agentic-AI SKU in a 70-capability roadmap that could finally re-accelerate the 4% organic line into mid-to-high single digits. Setup works if H2 organic growth steps up on AI attach and buyback compounds per-share metrics; setup breaks if organic stays stuck at ~4%, AI monetization slips into 2027, or nonprofit IT budgets contract in a 2026-H2 macro softening. This is a 12-month, mid-teens-IRR quality-and-yield trade — not a quant-growth slam-dunk.
Key risks (4)
Organic revenue deceleration — 4.2% is barely above inflation and the 'growth' label is generous
Nonprofit/education sector budget sensitivity if macro softens
AI product (Development Agent) monetization is unproven; could be margin-dilutive before it's accretive
Insider activity is grants + tax dispositions only — zero open-market buying signals no executive conviction
Trap reasons (3)
Non-GAAP EPS growth (+20%) is largely buyback-engineered — organic revenue only +4.2%
Screener tagged 'growth' but BLKB is a mature, low-single-digit-grower in a narrow nonprofit/social-sector TAM
Two recent analyst PT cuts (Stifel $50→$45; Baird $60→$50 even on upgrade) signal sell-side derating despite the EBIT margin beat
ASST
5/10
Trap risk: high
Catalyst: near
Next catalyst: True North's 'Bitcoin for Business' summit on May 21, 2026 in Lake Oswego, plus ongoing weekly BTC purchase disclosures that move the stock with Bitcoin price action.
ASST is the post-merger Strive/Asset Entities Bitcoin Treasury Company (closed late 2025; 94.2% Strive / 5.8% legacy Asset Entities), holding ~15,391 BTC and a ~$1.10B asset base. The screener's 'growth' tag is misleading — there is no organic operating growth; the growth signal is reading rapid BTC balance-sheet expansion funded by $750M merger equity and continuing ATM issuance under a $1B shelf. The genuine setup: ASST currently trades at ~$986M market cap versus ~$1.2B BTC NAV — a mNAV discount to its own bitcoin, unusual versus MSTR/Metaplanet peers that historically trade at premiums. If BTC stabilizes, mNAV mean-reversion offers ~20% upside before any BTC appreciation. Invalidation: (a) further BTC weakness below ~$75K compounds unrealized losses (Q1 2026 already showed $295.8M MTM loss / $5.19 diluted EPS hole), (b) dilutive ATM issuance widens the discount rather than closes it, (c) BTC treasury narrative cracks across the cohort. This is not a quality compounder — it's a leveraged BTC vehicle priced cheaply relative to its asset, which is a different game than the screener thinks it is.
Key risks (4)
Pure Bitcoin price exposure — Q1 2026 already booked $295.8M unrealized BTC loss
Ongoing share/SATA preferred issuance under $1B shelf — persistent dilution
13.00% SATA preferred dividend burn adds structural cash drag
Quant 'growth' signal misapplied — no operating growth thesis, just BTC accumulation
Trap reasons (3)
Growth screener mislabels BTC-accumulation-via-dilution as operational growth
$1B shelf registration + heavy SATA preferred issuance = ongoing dilution overhang
Pure BTC beta in a corporate wrapper — operating business is de minimis
CALX
5/10
Trap risk: high
Catalyst: medium
Next catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings in late July — first read on whether memory-surcharge gross-margin drag is stabilizing and whether Calix One platform ARR is offsetting CSP capex softness
Calix is a genuine growth story masked by an accounting optical illusion the screener can't fully see. Underlying demand is real — Q1 2026 revenue +27% YoY to a record $280M, FY guide raised to 15-20% growth, and the AI-native Calix One platform migration to Google Cloud is complete and scaling. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with median PT $63.50 vs $40 spot, implying ~58% upside. What the market is correctly punishing: management is passing memory-component cost spikes through to CSPs at zero margin, which inflates revenue growth while mechanically compressing GM 50-150bps. Combined with two fresh securities-investigation announcements, ~13% short interest, and insider selling from director/10%-holder Carl Russo, the setup is a value trap unless Q2 confirms margin stabilization. Invalidation: another sequential GM step-down or guidance cut at Q2. Quality setup only IF you can hold through a binary July print — too many active red flags to size now.
Key risks (4)
Active securities-fraud investigations could lead to class-action filing and lingering overhang
Memory surcharge mechanic continues to dilute reported GM through 2H 2026
Net insider selling at $43 level signals limited near-term upside conviction from inside
Trap reasons (3)
Q1 revenue beat partly inflated by zero-margin memory surcharge pass-through — flatters top-line growth but compresses GM 50-150bps for FY26
Two active securities investigations (Holzer & Holzer, Kirby McInerney) over alleged undisclosed margin headwinds; stock dropped 14% post-Q1
13% short interest plus net insider selling (Russo entities sold 25,000 shares at ~$43 on Apr 27)
MO
5/10
Trap risk: medium
Catalyst: near
Next catalyst: CEO Billy Gifford steps down mid-May 2026 after Q1 earnings call; successor and strategic refresh introduce near-term execution uncertainty.
Luna3's defensive screener correctly flags MO's sin-inelastic archetype: Q1 2026 delivered 7.3% adjusted EPS growth on $5.43B revenue, smokeable margins expanded to 65.1%, Marlboro holds 59.5% premium share, and on! commands 58.1% of oral tobacco — a textbook cash-compounder with a 5.7% dividend yield and reaffirmed $5.56-$5.72 FY26 EPS guidance. What the market already sees, however, is the same story: shares have ripped from $58 in November 2025 to $73 (+28% YTD), and the stock now sits at Goldman/Stifel's $77 high end with consensus at ~$69, leaving minimal multiple-expansion runway. The NJOY ACE ITC exclusion order kills the reduced-risk growth narrative for 2026 and forces Altria back to a slow-decline smokeable + on! story. CEO transition in mid-May adds execution risk. Setup is defensive-yield, not asymmetric. Invalidation: Q2 volume decline accelerates past 11%, NJOY writedown announced, or on! growth stalls below mid-teens.
Key risks (4)
Cigarette volumes structurally declining ~9-10%/year, partly offset by price/mix
NJOY ACE permanently sidelined by ITC; potential further impairment on $2.75B acquisition
CEO succession into a regulatory-heavy environment (FDA menthol, nicotine cap rules)
Valuation has caught up — limited margin of safety vs. 5.7% yield baseline
Trap reasons (3)
Stock up ~28% YTD to ~$73, now trading at/above consensus fair value (~$69 avg target) — most of the defensive re-rating is already priced in
NJOY ACE blocked by ITC exclusion order, will not return in 2026 — removes the e-vapor growth optionality that justified the $2.75B acquisition
Secular cigarette volume decline (~9-10% annually) remains the structural headwind that no screener factor fully captures
CD
2/10
Trap risk: high
Catalyst: near
Next catalyst: LD Micro Invitational XVI presentation on May 19, 2026 — a micro-cap promo conference, not a fundamental catalyst.
Luna3's growth screener latched onto the headline +278% YoY revenue and crypto/AI/HPC narrative, but qualitative review flags this as a classic micro-cap promotion setup, not a high-quality growth story. CD is the rebranded Mercurity Fintech, having pivoted in late 2025 to 'tokenization and on-chain innovation' — a sector-rotation rebrand that has historically masked weak underlying businesses. Revenue is only $1.87M against a $5.1M loss; the percentage growth is arithmetic, not operational. Most damning: a March 2026 offshore private placement at $0.774/share while the stock trades north of $10 suggests either a reverse split disguising prior collapse or extreme insider/related-party financing that will overhang the float. New hires (Peter Yang ex-Fenbushi) and Apex Group partnership are narrative, not revenue. LD Micro presentation is promotion, not catalyst. Thesis would invalidate if SEC filings show clean cap table, organic institutional accumulation (not passive index), and a credible path to >$20M ARR. None of that is visible. Avoid.
Key risks (4)
Dilution overhang from $0.774 private placement vs $10 market price