Asian Session Summary

The Asian session delivered a clear theme: sell yen, buy commodity currencies. DXY drifted lower to 98.75, extending its grind below 99.00 as gold punched through $4,600 to trade at $4,622 — up 2.35% and marking fresh highs since June. The move reflects persistent USD softness and fading Fed tightening expectations. Commodity-linked currencies led the charge — NZD/USD rallied 0.57% to 0.5969, AUD/USD gained 0.39% to 0.7153, and USD/CAD dropped 0.39% to 1.3757. Copper’s 1.56% gain reinforced the pro-cyclical bid. JPY was the session’s punching bag, with every major yen cross posting gains north of 0.50%. WTI crude’s 1.82% decline was the outlier, diverging from the broader risk-on tone.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1695
Up 0.18% and pressing the 1.17 handle. The pair has held above the Asian low at 1.1681 cleanly. The headline noting euro weakness against CAD post-German PMI data suggests some drag from the eurozone manufacturing side, but the USD leg is doing more work here. A clean break above 1.1704 (today’s high) opens the door toward 1.1720–1.1750. Below 1.1680, bulls lose their footing.

GBP/USD — 1.3642
Sterling is the strongest G10 major against the dollar today, up 0.31%. The range has been tight — 1.3630 to 1.3655 — but the grind is directional. EUR/GBP slipping to 0.8570 confirms cable is outperforming on its own merit, not just riding USD weakness. Watch 1.3655 as the near-term cap; a London break above it targets 1.3680.

NZD/JPY — 94.76
The session’s biggest mover at +0.88%. NZD strength meets yen weakness in a pairing that amplifies both legs. The high at 94.96 is the level — a push through 95.00 in early London would be a statement. The BoJ September risk headline from Commerzbank is keeping yen sellers comfortable for now, but round-number resistance at 95 could trigger profit-taking.

AUD/USD — 0.7153
Sitting at its session high. Copper’s rally and broad commodity-bloc demand are the tailwinds. The pair hasn’t pulled back meaningfully from 0.7112 (Asian low), and the lack of any retracement heading into London suggests real-money flow. A hold above 0.7140 keeps the bid intact; 0.7180 is the next upside marker.

USD/JPY — 158.82
Yen weakness is the consensus trade, but the pair printed its session high at 159.13 early and has since faded 30 pips. That’s worth noting — the yen selling is broad in crosses, but dollar-yen is underperforming because the USD side is soft. If DXY rolls over further in London, USD/JPY could stall below 159.00 even as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY grind higher.

London Calendar Watch

Friday London sessions tend to be thinner in the afternoon as desks square up for the weekend, but the early hours can still deliver. The German PMI data referenced in overnight headlines has already printed and weighed on euro crosses — any follow-through commentary from ECB officials would compound the move. UK retail sales data is a typical Friday-morning release for London and could give GBP/USD the catalyst to test above 1.3655 or stall the rally. Beyond scheduled data, the bond market anxiety flagged in US debt headlines may keep gold bid and the dollar defensive through European hours.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD has a mild bid but needs to clear 1.1704 to confirm — the German PMI drag caps enthusiasm, so this is a buy-on-dip setup near 1.1680 rather than a chase. GBP/USD looks cleaner, with cable leading on relative euro weakness and a path toward 1.3680 if risk appetite holds. The commodity bloc — AUD, NZD, CAD — should see follow-through given copper’s strength, though WTI’s weakness may limit CAD gains. The DXY tone remains bearish below 99.00; any bounce toward that level is a selling opportunity until proven otherwise.

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