Sterling leads the G10 lower into the London handover, with DXY holding a modest bid near 99.33 and the dollar firmer across the board ex-NZD — defensive tone, but no breakout yet.

Asian Session Summary

Asia traded a low-conviction risk-off lean. DXY ground 0.12% higher to 99.33, with the dollar bid against EUR (-0.19%), GBP (-0.39%), AUD (-0.66%), CHF (+0.40% for USD), and CAD (+0.34% for USD). The clear outlier was NZD/USD, up 0.80% to 0.5889 — running counter to the bloc despite the Iran-tension headline drag flagged for the kiwi. Crosses tell the same story: NZD/JPY rallied 0.93%, while AUD/JPY shed 0.53% and GBP/JPY lost 0.25%. Commodities split — WTI ripped 2.92% to 91.27 on the US–Iran headline rotation, Brent lagged at +0.59%, gold slipped 0.65% sub-4,420 testing the 200-day per the Danske note, and copper added 0.28%.

Key Pairs for London

GBP/USD — 1.3403. Down 0.39%, the weakest G10. Asian range 1.3369–1.3431; the 1.3369 low is the immediate pivot. A clean break opens 1.3350 air; reclaim of 1.3430 needed to neutralise the bearish tilt London inherits.

EUR/USD — 1.1614. Off 0.19%, hugging the lower half of the 1.1590–1.1633 range. 1.1590 is the line in the sand for the London open; a hold there keeps the pair in consolidation, a break drags toward 1.1570 with little intraday support.

USD/CAD — 1.3855. Up 0.34% despite WTI +2.92% — the loonie ignoring its commodity tailwind is the more telling tape. Asian high 1.3870; a print through there extends the move while crude strength suggests fade risk back toward 1.3832.

AUD/USD — 0.7124. Down 0.66%, low of 0.7102 already tagged. 0.7100 is the round-number magnet; through it, 0.7080 opens. Copper +0.28% offers no real cushion at these spot levels.

NZD/USD — 0.5889. The mover, +0.80%. Asian high 0.5912 capped the bounce; London needs to take 0.5912 to extend, otherwise the divergence-fade trade back toward 0.5867 sets up cleanly given the rest of the antipodean tape.

London Calendar Watch

Headline flow into the European session is dominated by US–Iran geopolitics — the Brent break lower and the kiwi tape both reference it directly. That keeps oil-sensitive crosses (CAD, NOK, JPY) headline-driven rather than data-driven through the open.

For the European bloc, ECB speaker commentary is the typical Thursday driver, with any rates-path nuance carrying outsized weight given EUR/USD’s compression near 1.1600. Sterling traders will be watching for any BoE-adjacent commentary against the soft GBP backdrop — the BNY note on CAD rebalancing flagged in the wires also points to month-end flow dynamics that can distort the London fix.

No invented prints — trade the tape, react to the headlines as they cross.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is defensive — 1.1590 holds the structure but the bid is gone and DXY firmer keeps rallies sellable into 1.1633. GBP/USD bias is outright bearish through London with 1.3370 the trigger; only a sharp risk-on reversal in equities (referenced as pulling back per Danske) saves it. Commodity-linked pairs are split: WTI’s 2.92% pop should help CAD but isn’t — watch USD/CAD into 1.3870 for the rejection trade if crude holds. USD tone is grindingly firm, not breaking out — DXY at 99.33 is mid-range, and the dollar is winning on relative weakness elsewhere rather than its own bid.

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