US futures are pointing lower across all four majors with the S&P down 0.26% and Nasdaq off 0.50%, as fresh US-Iran strike headlines push WTI up 2.76% to $91.13 and lift VIX above 16.50. The session sets up defensive, with energy-led inflation risk colliding against a Dow that just outperformed on rotation into Industrials and Consumer Discretionary.

Previous Session Close

Last session closed mixed with a defensive split. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 750.5 (-0.02%), the Nasdaq 100 leaked 0.11% to 729.5, and small caps lagged with the Russell 2000 down 0.05% at 290.4. The standout was the Dow Jones, which added 0.32% to 506.9 on rotation into cyclicals.

VIX printed 16.79, up 3.07% on the day — neither the complacency reading of sub-15 nor the fear territory above 20, but the directional move higher hints at hedging demand creeping back in. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led sectors with a 1.76% gain, while Energy (XLE) was the biggest drag at -1.49% despite firm crude — a classic late-cycle disconnect between commodity strength and equity weakness.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are pointing to a softer open. S&P futures sit at 7520 (-0.26%), Nasdaq futures at roughly 29,900 (-0.50%), Dow futures at 50,630 (-0.20%), and Russell futures at 2911 (-0.46%). The Nasdaq’s underperformance is the tell — tech is wearing the brunt of the overnight risk-off tone.

The Asia headline most worth flagging is SK Hynix joining the $1 trillion club alongside Samsung and Micron on AI chip demand — a positive backdrop for semis that the Nasdaq futures aren’t yet pricing. If that thread holds into US hours, expect chip leaders to outperform a soft tape.

Commodity & FX Setup

Commodities are sending mixed signals. Gold is off 0.62% to $4,420 — modest profit-taking despite the overnight risk-off, suggesting the move isn’t a full fear trade. WTI oil at $91.13 (+2.76%) on fresh US-Iran strike headlines is the inflation pressure point — bullish for XLE eventually but adds a headwind to consumer-sensitive names and transportation. Copper holding at $6.32 (+0.29%) keeps the growth-proxy intact; it’s not flashing recession.

DXY at 99.37 (+0.16%) firms the dollar, pressuring EUR/USD to 1.161 (-0.19%) and GBP/USD to 1.34 (-0.40%). The 10Y yield easing to 4.481% (-0.27%) is the small tailwind for duration-sensitive growth — but a stronger dollar usually trims multinational earnings translation, watching Tech and Industrials.

Catalyst Watch

Three threads are worth tracking into the open. First, the oil headline — fresh US-Iran strikes pushing a peace deal “into doubt” puts crude as the day’s macro driver; any escalation language during US hours hits airlines, retailers, and consumer staples while bidding XLE. Second, the semiconductor supercycle conversation gaining traction — the framing of chips “as commodities” plus SK Hynix’s trillion-dollar milestone could rotate flows into NVDA, AMD, and Micron on any tape strength.

Third, Wells Fargo’s call to sell rather than buy the small-cap rally — Russell futures down 0.46% suggests that view is finding traction overnight. Watch IWM open action; a failed bounce confirms the broader risk-off bias.

Bottom Line

The Luna3 read into the open is defensive bias — lower futures, firmer dollar, climbing VIX, and an oil shock pricing in. The level worth watching is S&P futures at 7520; a break below 7500 opens the door to a wider risk-off session, while a reclaim of 7540 says dip buyers are still active. The single biggest driver is the US-Iran headline tape — if crude extends higher through the US open, energy leads but the broader index struggles to find a bid.

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