Dollar comes into London on the defensive, with DXY pinned at 99.07 while NZD leads the G10 board on RBNZ repricing and the Swiss franc grinds higher against everything.

Asian Session Summary

Asia traded a soft-dollar tape with a clear risk-sensitive tilt. DXY held a tight 99.07 print up just 0.06%, but the cross-rates told the real story: NZD/USD ripped +1.20% to 0.5963 after RBNZ commentary pointing to a faster, larger hike path, dragging NZD/JPY +0.96% to 94.90 in sympathy. AUD/USD followed at +0.42% to 0.7163, with copper firmer at 6.423 (+0.42%) giving the antipodean bid a commodity backstop. EUR/USD added 24 pips to 1.1646 on light flow, Cable a quieter +0.07% at 1.3426. The Swiss bid was the standout safe-haven trade — USD/CHF -0.50%, EUR/CHF -0.31%, GBP/CHF -0.43% — even as gold rallied +1.25% to 4555. Oil split: WTI -0.39%, Brent -1.31%, weighing modestly on CAD’s commodity leg despite USD/CAD breaking lower to 1.3804.

Key Pairs for London

NZD/USD — 0.5963. Up 1.20% on RBNZ hawkish repricing, session high 0.5965 sits right on the figure. London needs to take 0.5965 to extend; failure there and the longs that piled in during Asia start trimming. Downside pivot 0.5933 (session low).

USD/CHF — 0.78392. Down 0.50%, the cleanest dollar-weakness expression on the board and a tell that the safe-haven bid is rotating into CHF rather than the buck. Session low 0.78304 is the line — break opens the 0.78 handle. Resistance 0.7846.

USD/CAD — 1.3804. Off 0.29% despite Brent down 1.31%, which is the interesting tension — CAD strength is dollar-led, not oil-led. Session printed its low at the figure (1.3774 low). 1.3804 round-number magnet for London; below 1.3774 and the trend extends.

EUR/USD — 1.1646. +0.24%, session high 1.1660 capping. London’s job is to either confirm a push through 1.1660 toward 1.1700 or fade back into the 1.1639 floor. EUR/CHF -0.31% says EUR strength is purely a USD story, not a euro bid.

GBP/JPY — 213.78. Off 0.13% with a session high at 214.21 that failed to hold. Cable is flat but the yen crosses are heavy on the back of USD/JPY -0.20% — GBP/JPY 213.75 low is the level; loss there and 213.00 opens.

London Calendar Watch

End-of-week European session — flow rather than tier-one data is likely to drive the tape. ECB speakers are the wildcard on any session-end Friday, with the market still digesting the Fed-path uncertainty Kashkari flagged in his “now unclear” comment on policy direction since the Iran war headlines. UK month-end fixings into the 4pm London cut will matter more than usual given Cable’s tight 1.3420-1.3451 range — real-money rebalancing flow can override the technical picture in the final hour.

The US-Iran de-escalation narrative running through Asian equity markets (KOSPI to record highs) is the macro overlay London inherits. Gold pulling back from a two-month low while still printing +1.25% on the day tells you the safe-haven trade isn’t fully unwound — watch for any Iran headline to whip CHF and gold simultaneously.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and Cable both lean constructive into London — DXY offered, EUR/USD pressing the 1.1660 cap, and Cable holding above 1.3420 with no real seller. The risk-on tone in antipodeans (NZD/AUD bid, copper firm) argues for AUD/USD follow-through above 0.7170 if the dollar stays soft. The split in oil — WTI down modestly, Brent down hard — keeps USD/CAD’s break of 1.38 a dollar trade rather than a CAD trade, so faders need DXY to bounce off 99.00 to get paid. Net: dollar tone is defensive but not broken, and CHF strength alongside gold says the market isn’t quite ready to fully price out the haven bid.

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