Now I have the confirmed catalysts. Here’s the post:

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The setup into Jun 01–Jun 05, 2026

Europe enters June with a split tape. The DAX closed the week at 25,104.7, up 0.9%, while the IBEX 35 outperformed at 18,362.9 (+2.1%) and the FTSE MIB pushed through 50,000 to finish at 50,037.0 (+1.1%). The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up to 6,050.5 (+0.5%) and the CAC 40 added 0.8% to 8,183.3. But the other side of the ledger tells a different story: the FTSE 100 slipped to 10,409.3 (-0.5%), the AEX dropped 1.0% to 1,034.9, and the OMX Stockholm 30 was flat at 3,138.1. The divergence maps cleanly onto sector exposure — cyclicals and semis (Infineon +10.5%, Adidas +7.8%, Rolls-Royce +7.1%) outpaced while UK defensives bled (Tesco -7.0%, BAT -5.8%, BP -5.3%). That rotation faces its first real test this week with a data calendar dense enough to either confirm or break the pattern.

Jun 01–Jun 05, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Jun 01 — Triple manufacturing PMI day. Final May manufacturing PMIs land for Germany (flash 49.9 — back below 50), France, Italy, Spain, and the eurozone aggregate (flash 51.4, down from 52.2 in April). The UK final comes in alongside at 53.7 flash. Across the Atlantic, US ISM Manufacturing (April: 52.7) hits at 10:00 AM ET. Three readings, three regions, all before European lunch. The German print matters most — a confirmed sub-50 would be the first manufacturing contraction since the spring 2025 trough and would pressure the DAX’s recent outperformance.

Tuesday Jun 02 — The week’s headline event: Eurozone flash CPI for May at 11:00 CET. April printed 3.0% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in March, driven by energy (+10.9%) and sticky services (+3.0%). This is the last inflation datapoint before the ECB’s June 11 rate decision. Markets are pricing a 25bp hike to 2.25% on the deposit facility rate — a hot CPI would lock that in, while a downside surprise could introduce optionality. US JOLTS job openings for April also land, feeding the Fed-vs-ECB divergence trade that has been driving EUR/USD.

Wednesday Jun 03 — Final services and composite PMIs for the eurozone and UK. The flash readings were ugly: eurozone services at 46.4 (sharpest contraction since early 2021), composite at 47.5, and UK services at 47.9 (first contraction since April 2025). These finals will confirm whether the services downturn is as deep as the flash suggested or whether revisions soften the picture. Stateside, the ADP private payrolls report (April: +109,000) and US ISM Services (April: 53.6) create a pre-NFP double-header. After the bell, Broadcom reports (consensus: $22.08B revenue, +47% y/y) — the read-across to ASML, Infineon, and STMicro will matter Thursday morning in Europe, especially with Infineon already up 10.5% last week.

Thursday Jun 04 — Eurozone retail sales for April (Eurostat, typical first-Thursday release) and April PPI round out the secondary data. Neither tends to move indices on its own, but together they fill in the consumer and pipeline-price picture ahead of the ECB.

Friday Jun 05 — US nonfarm payrolls for May at 8:30 AM ET. European markets react from 2:30 PM CET onward. This is the single highest-impact global event of the week. A strong print would reinforce the higher-for-longer Fed narrative and push Bund yields higher in sympathy; a miss would do the opposite and could give European equities room to run into the ECB meeting the following week.

Levels and instruments to watch

The DAX at 25,104.7 is the benchmark to track. The 25,000 round number held as support through last week’s pullback and a close below it on heavy volume would signal the cyclical bid is fading. To the upside, the index needs to clear its late-May highs to confirm the trend. The Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,050.5 is sitting just above the psychologically clean 6,000 level — a break below that would mark the first sub-6,000 print in several weeks.

The FTSE 100 at 10,409.3 is worth watching for a different reason. The UK index underperformed with energy (BP -5.3%, TotalEnergies -4.4%), tobacco (BAT -5.8%), and consumer staples (Tesco -7.0%, Diageo -4.0%) all dragging. If the services PMI final confirms contraction, the FTSE could revisit the 10,300 area. The IBEX at 18,362.9 led Europe last week and is now the barometer for southern European momentum — the spread between IBEX and FTSE performance tells you where capital is rotating.

On rates, the 2-year German Schatz is the ECB-sensitive instrument. Tuesday’s CPI will move it directly. Watch for any repricing in the June 11 hike probability — currently near fully priced at 25bp.

The bias

Cautiously constructive for core eurozone indices, defensive on the FTSE 100. The cyclical rotation that lifted semis, autos (Renault +6.2%), and luxury (L’Oréal +5.8%, Richemont +8.4%) has momentum, and the ECB hiking into that backdrop — counterintuitively — signals the economy can absorb it. But the services PMI at 46.4 is a warning shot. If Wednesday’s final confirms that level without revision, the “Europe can take it” narrative gets harder to sustain.

The one thing that flips the bias: a CPI print materially above 3.0% combined with a strong US payrolls number on Friday. That combination would push rate expectations higher on both sides of the Atlantic simultaneously, compressing equity multiples with nowhere to hide. A downside CPI surprise, on the other hand, would be the catalyst for European equities to break higher into the ECB meeting.