Where Asia Closed Yesterday

Thursday’s session split Asia into two camps: the tech-exporter economies surged while mainland China and India sold off hard.

South Korea’s KOSPI led the region with a 3.55% jump to 8,476 — its strongest single-session gain in weeks — as Samsung, SK Hynix, and the broader semiconductor complex caught a bid. Taiwan’s TAIEX followed close behind at +2.51%, pushing above 44,700 on strength in TSMC and AI-adjacent chipmakers. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied 2.53% to 66,330, with exporters benefiting from a weak yen at 160 against the dollar.

Australia’s ASX 200 added 1.62% to 8,732, with mining heavyweights lifted by surging commodity prices. Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 0.98% to 5,038.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng eked out a 0.70% gain to 25,182 — far more muted than the tech boards, suggesting caution around China exposure. That caution was justified on the mainland: the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.73% to 4,069 while the Shenzhen Component fell a sharp 1.81% to 15,575. India’s Nifty 50 also sold off, losing 1.50% to 23,548 in a broad-based retreat. New Zealand’s NZX 50 was flat at -0.23%.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street added to Asia’s momentum heading into Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed up 0.26% while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.42%, driven almost entirely by technology — the XLK sector ETF surged 2.48%, its best day in over a week. Energy names rode the oil spike higher with XLE up 1.79%.

Small caps told a different story. The Russell 2000 fell 0.50%, and financials dipped 0.29%, suggesting the rally was narrow and concentrated in mega-cap tech. The VIX rose 4.77% to 16 — still well below the stress threshold at 20 but ticking higher, a sign that options traders are starting to price more uncertainty even as the headline indices grind up.

For Asia, the tech-led US session reinforces Thursday’s momentum in Seoul, Taipei, and Tokyo. But the Russell divergence and rising VIX hint that the bid is selective — smaller names and rate-sensitive sectors aren’t participating.

Commodity + FX Watch

The overnight commodity complex is the story that matters most for Tuesday’s open. WTI crude surged 5.69% to $92.30 after reports that many large oil tankers remain stuck in the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. That’s a direct cost headwind for Asia’s major energy importers: Japan, South Korea, and India will all feel the pressure at the open.

Copper rallied 3.21%, which should support ASX miners and provide a tailwind for materials-linked names across the region. Gold slipped 1.02% as risk appetite held firm — not a signal of stress.

On FX, USD/JPY sits at 160 (+0.18%), keeping the yen weak and Japanese exporter earnings optically strong. AUD/USD edged up 0.23% to 0.718, a modest positive for ASX sentiment but well within recent ranges.

What to Watch Today

• Strait of Hormuz escalation risk: The tanker disruption drove oil above $92 and could push higher if the blockage worsens. Japan and Korea import over 80% of their crude through this corridor — watch energy stocks gap up and transport/airline names gap down at the open.
• Tech momentum test in Seoul and Taipei: KOSPI and TAIEX both rallied over 2.5% Thursday, and US tech added fuel overnight with XLK +2.48%. The question is whether Samsung, TSMC, and their supply chains can extend the run or if profit-taking kicks in after a long weekend.
• China mainland divergence: Shanghai and Shenzhen sold off while every other major Asian board rallied Thursday. Watch whether that gap closes or widens — persistent mainland weakness while Hong Kong holds up often signals capital rotation out of A-shares into H-shares or offshore plays.
• India’s Nifty recovery attempt: A 1.50% drop Thursday needs context at today’s open. If global risk appetite holds, the sell-off looks like a rotation dip. If oil above $92 persists, India’s import bill becomes a macro drag that could extend the decline.

Bottom Line

The overnight setup leans risk-on for Asia’s tech-heavy exchanges — Seoul, Taipei, and Tokyo should open firm on the back of strong US tech and Thursday’s momentum. The wildcard is oil: a 5.7% spike on supply disruption fears is the kind of input shock that can override equity sentiment, particularly for energy-importing economies. Luna3 sees a session where tech leads but commodities steal the narrative if the Strait of Hormuz situation deteriorates further.

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