Asian Session Summary

The dollar held a modest bid through Asia, with DXY edging up to 99.27 and testing the 99.40 resistance flagged by technical analysts. The session’s standout move was in NZD/USD, which dropped half a percent to 0.5906 — the worst performer across G10. The Swiss franc weakened broadly, with USD/CHF climbing 0.40% to 0.7893 and GBP/CHF gaining 0.35%. Oil was the macro driver: WTI surged 2.3% to $95.94 and Brent added 2.1% to $98.02 on renewed US-Iran tensions, yet the typical commodity-FX beneficiaries (AUD, CAD, NOK) showed only muted follow-through. Copper slipped 1.1%, capping the Aussie’s upside despite a weaker-than-expected Australian GDP print that kept AUD/JPY soft below 114.50.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1620
Down 0.14% on the session, sitting mid-range between the 1.1617 low and 1.1636 high. The pair is holding above 1.1600 round-number support but struggling to reclaim the 1.1635-40 zone. With DXY pressing 99.40, a clean break higher in the dollar index would open 1.1580-1.1600 as the next downside test. Buyers need a reclaim of 1.1640 to shift the short-term tone.

NZD/USD — 0.5906
The session’s biggest mover. The Kiwi has broken below 0.5910 support and is trading near session lows at 0.5901-0.5907, well off the 0.5937 high. The move looks like risk repricing rather than a NZ-specific catalyst. London traders will watch whether 0.5900 holds as psychological support — a break opens 0.5870. Bounce attempts likely capped at 0.5930.

USD/CHF — 0.7893
The strongest dollar-cross move of the session. CHF weakness is broad-based (EUR/CHF also up 0.22% to 0.9168), suggesting a positioning unwind rather than a franc-specific story. The pair has cleared the 0.7880 level and the session high of 0.7895 is the immediate resistance. A push through 0.7900 round number would be the first time above that handle in recent sessions.

GBP/USD — 1.3456
Cable is largely unchanged, down just 3 pips. UOB’s characterisation of “range trading with soft tone” captures it — the pair is coiling between 1.3438 and 1.3472 with no conviction. London flow typically provides direction. The 1.3430 low from earlier this week is nearby support; 1.3475-1.3500 is the overhead supply zone.

USD/NOK — 9.2858
Up 0.19% despite oil’s surge — a disconnect that London could correct. If Brent holds above $98 through European morning trade, NOK should find buyers. The 9.25 level is the downside pivot; failure to break below it would confirm the pair’s uptrend remains intact despite the oil bid.

London Calendar Watch

Wednesday’s European session typically brings services PMI revisions across the eurozone and UK, though the market impact depends on the magnitude of any deviation from flash prints. With oil’s overnight surge, any ECB or BoE commentary touching on energy pass-through to inflation could move EUR and GBP crosses. The broader backdrop — S&P 500 up nine straight sessions per overnight wires — suggests risk appetite remains firm, which typically pressures safe-haven demand and supports the current CHF weakness into Europe.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is mildly defensive below 1.1640, with DXY’s push toward 99.40 keeping the dollar in the driver’s seat. GBP/USD is neutral until cable breaks out of the 1.3430-1.3475 range — London needs to pick a direction. The oil surge is the underappreciated story: CAD and NOK have not yet priced in a 2%+ Brent move, leaving room for commodity-FX to catch up if crude holds. Dollar tone is constructive but not aggressive — 99.40 in DXY is the line that matters for the next leg.

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