- KEEL leads Orbit at +45.3% since screened — 28% of the board is above entry
- Median return -4.5%, mean -3.4% across 53 tracked names
- Top 20% cohort averaging +20.8% — AI/compute infrastructure and defense names dominate
It was a rough week for risk, and Orbit’s board wore it. Seven days ago, 58% of the names Orbit had screened sat above their entry, with a +5.7% median and a +6.6% mean — the kind of spread where the upper tail does the heavy lifting. That picture has now inverted: just 28% of the board remains above entry, the median has flipped to -4.5%, and the mean sits at -3.4%.
The damage came from a two-day, growth-to-value flush. Broadcom’s AI-chip guidance miss on Wednesday repriced the entire semiconductor and AI-infrastructure complex, and Friday’s hot May payrolls print (172,000 jobs versus roughly 85,000 expected) slammed the door on near-term rate cuts — a direct hit to the high-beta, long-duration names that dominate Orbit’s board. KEEL held up best, still +45.3% since screened, but even it gave back ground from last week’s +60.9%. The weakest name now sits at -49.2%, against -21.5% a week ago. This was a regime stress test — the engine’s edge shows in how the top cohort holds up through it, not just on green weeks.
What Orbit is
Orbit is Luna3.ai’s AI-augmented research engine. It blends twelve algorithmic signals with a gradient-boosted machine-learning model, then layers an agentic LLM analyst on top that reads each top pick’s filings and writes a daily thesis tagged with a conviction score and a catalyst-proximity read. Entry price and date freeze the moment a name clears the screen, so what you see below is the actual setup Orbit flagged in real time — not a back-edited record.
The scorecard
Across every screened name, returns since screened span +45.3% at the top to -49.2% at the bottom.
The aggregate read is straightforward. 28% of names on Orbit’s board are above their screened entry, the median return is -4.5%, and the mean is -3.4% — the mean sitting above the median, a sign the surviving winners are still doing real work against a broadly red tape. Not every screen works, and after this week a clear majority of the cohort sits below where Orbit first flagged it.
The top 20% since screened
Combined (sum of gains): +207.8%
| # | Ticker | Company | Entry | Now | Since screened | Past week | Source | Screened | Industry | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KEEL | Keel Infrastructure | $3.53 | $5.13 | +45.3% | -8.7% | Tier 1 | 2026-05-07 | Capital Markets | $3.1B |
| 2 | ASPI | ASP Isotopes Inc. | $5.50 | $6.71 | +22.0% | -13.6% | Track H | 2026-05-07 | Chemicals | $845M |
| 3 | STUB | StubHub | $7.63 | $9.29 | +21.8% | -5.2% | Tier 2 | 2026-05-07 | Internet Content & Information | $3.5B |
| 4 | CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | $49.65 | $60.46 | +21.8% | +14.2% | Agent pick | 2026-05-28 | Engineering & Construction | $925M |
| 5 | ALOY | Almonty Industries | $10.42 | $12.48 | +19.8% | +28.3% | Tier 3 | 2026-05-07 | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | $764M |
| 6 | RCAT | Red Cat | $10.59 | $12.68 | +19.7% | -10.4% | Tier 2 | 2026-05-07 | Aerospace & Defense | $1.9B |
| 7 | BTDR | Bitdeer | $14.85 | $17.47 | +17.6% | -5.0% | Tier 2 | 2026-05-07 | Software – Application | $4.3B |
| 8 | ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | $26.80 | $30.57 | +14.1% | +4.5% | Track H | 2026-05-07 | Software – Infrastructure | $2.2B |
| 9 | ONDS | Ondas | $9.21 | $10.43 | +13.2% | -21.3% | Tier 3 | 2026-05-07 | Communication Equipment | $5.3B |
| 10 | ERAS | Erasca | $10.64 | $11.97 | +12.5% | -1.9% | Tier 2 | 2026-05-07 | Biotechnology | $3.7B |
What changed since last week
7 of last week’s top ten held their place in the cohort — KEEL, ASPI, STUB, RCAT, BTDR, ONDS, ERAS — but every one gave back ground, and all printed red past-week moves. Ondas was the hardest hit at -21.3% on the week, its since-screened gain compressing to +13.2%, with ASPI, RCAT and KEEL close behind. The three names that climbed into the top 20% tell the rotation story: Almonty Industries (ALOY, +28.3% on the week), Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (CDNL, +14.2% on the week), A10 Networks, Inc. (ATEN, +4.5% on the week) were the only green past-week movers on the board — critical minerals, infrastructure and networking sidestepping the AI-capex repricing that hammered the compute and defense leaders. CLSK, KTOS, JOBY dropped out of the cohort entirely. KEEL keeps the top spot at +45.3% since screened, though its cushion is roughly 16 points thinner than a week ago.
How to read the board
Orbit’s screen has two parts: a fundamental and quant track screen, and a technical pre-rally screen. The “Source” column tells you which layer first surfaced each name. Tier 1, 2 and 3 are the top conviction layer — names that cleared both parts of the screen and earned an agentic catalyst review on top, with Tier 1 the highest conviction. The “Track H” tag means Orbit’s H fundamental track caught the name and the technical pattern confirmed it, without the agent review the tiers receive. “Agent pick” is a name surfaced directly by the LLM analyst.
Get early access to Orbit
Orbit is Luna3.ai’s AI-augmented research engine. 12 algorithmic signals + a gradient-boosted ML model + an agentic LLM that reads each top pick’s filings and writes a daily thesis with conviction score and catalyst proximity. Three regimes, three playbooks — growth in expansion, defensives in late-cycle, recovery plays at panic bottoms. The 3 in Luna3.ai.
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