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US markets enter the week of Jun 08–Jun 12, 2026, trying to stabilise after the sharpest single-session selloff in months. Friday’s $1.8 trillion wipeout hit tech hardest — QQQ dropped 4.5% on the week — while fresh Iran-Israel hostilities sent oil surging and VIX to its highest close since early April. The calendar ahead is loaded: May CPI and PPI land back-to-back, a full Treasury refunding cycle tests rate appetite, and Oracle and Adobe report earnings into a tape that just punished Marvell and the broader semiconductor complex.

The setup into Jun 08–Jun 12, 2026

The damage last week was lopsided. SPY fell 2.5% to $737.50, but the Dow barely flinched at -0.2%, held up by defense names (Lockheed Martin, RTX both landed multi-billion-dollar contracts) and healthcare (+2.4%). The rotation out of tech and into value was aggressive — XLK shed 5.6% while XLF gained 1.4% and XLE rose 2.5% as WTI crude pushed to $90.54. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.536%, and the 30-year touched 4.999%, close enough to 5% to make fixed-income desks uncomfortable. Gold fell 4.9% to $4,337, silver dropped 8.8% — a risk-off move that sold metals alongside equities, suggesting forced liquidation rather than orderly hedging. VIX’s 40.4% weekly surge to 21.51 marks the first time volatility has re-priced above 20 since tariff fears in April.

Jun 08–Jun 12, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Jun 09: Markets digest the weekend OPEC+ ministerial outcome (the 41st meeting concluded Sunday Jun 08). No tier-1 US data. With the Fed blackout not starting until the following weekend, expect scattered Fed speaker appearances early in the week — any hawkish pivot on energy-driven inflation will set the tone.

Tuesday Jun 10: US Treasury 3-year note auction — the first leg of a full refunding cycle. Demand here signals how the market prices the front end ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.

Wednesday Jun 11: The week’s headline event — May CPI at 8:30 AM ET. April’s core print ran hot, and the question now is whether Strait of Hormuz-related energy costs are bleeding into services. Consensus will be set by Monday; any upside surprise resets the rate-cut timeline the week before the dot plot. After the close, Oracle (ORCL) reports Q4 FY2026 earnings — the Street expects $1.96 EPS on $19.1B revenue. As the largest enterprise cloud name reporting this cycle, ORCL will signal AI infrastructure spend momentum. Also: 10-year Treasury note auction.

Thursday Jun 12: May PPI at 8:30 AM ET alongside weekly initial jobless claims (prior: 225K, the highest since early February). PPI feeds directly into the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator calculation, so CPI + PPI together frame the June FOMC in full. The 30-year bond auction completes the refunding trifecta. After the close, Adobe (ADBE) reports — another test for software multiples after Marvell led the chip wreck.

Friday Jun 13: Preliminary June University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. The May final printed 44.8, the lowest on record, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.8%. Any further deterioration strengthens the stagflation narrative heading into the FOMC the following week.

Levels and instruments to watch

SPY at $737.50 is now 2.5% off its recent highs. The 730 area is the first structural support — a break below it opens the path toward the 200-day moving average, which would coincide with a full 5% correction from the peak. QQQ at $705.10 lost 4.5% in a week; the 700 round number is the line — that level held during the April tariff pullback and a clean break rewrites the risk surface for growth allocations.

The 10-year yield at 4.536% is climbing into the CPI print. A hot number that pushes it through 4.60% would put the June dot plot under pressure to hold rates for longer. The 30-year at 4.999% is one basis point from 5% — a psychological threshold that last triggered mortgage-rate headlines in October 2023.

WTI at $90.54 is the wildcard. Fresh Iran-Israel strikes over the weekend add a geopolitical premium that feeds directly into CPI energy components. If oil pushes through $92, the entire “transitory supply shock” thesis gets harder to defend. DXY at 100.1 is firm — dollar strength alongside equity weakness is a classic risk-off configuration.

The bias

Defensive. The tape is rotating out of growth and into value/defense at a pace that looks like institutional rebalancing, not a one-day scare. Tech lost 5.6% in a week while healthcare gained 2.4% and financials added 1.4% — that’s sector rotation with conviction. VIX above 20 with a full CPI/PPI/refunding gauntlet ahead means hedging costs stay elevated.

The one thing that flips it: a core CPI print that comes in below consensus on Wednesday. A cool inflation read with the FOMC four days away would reprice rate-cut odds fast, compress yields, and give beaten-down QQQ names a reason to bid. Without that, the path of least resistance is lower into the June 16-17 Fed meeting — especially if the 30-year auction on Thursday prices poorly above 5%.