Asian Session Summary

The Monday Asian session delivered a clean USD bid against every G10 currency. The catalyst: a weekend escalation in Middle East tensions, with Iran holding the US responsible for ceasefire breaches and fresh attacks sending WTI crude up 4.5% to $94.63 — the largest single-session jump in over a month. Brent followed at $97.33. Despite the oil spike, the move played out as broad risk-off rather than commodity-currency strength. AUD/USD dropped 1.15% to 0.7050, NZD/USD fell 1.13%, and Scandinavian currencies were hit hardest with USD/NOK surging 1.33%. Gold slipped 0.56% to $4,313, suggesting this is a USD safe-haven bid rather than a blanket flight to hard assets. DXY itself barely moved at 100.1, masking the broad-based strength underneath.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1517
Down 82 pips on the session, trading just above the Asian low of 1.1510. That level is the immediate support to defend. ING’s desk note flags that even a hawkish ECB stance may not prevent further downside against a bid dollar. A clean break below 1.1510 opens 1.1480. The Asian high at 1.1543 marks first resistance if sellers exhaust early in London.

GBP/USD — 1.3325
Sterling gave back 76 pips overnight, holding a narrow 32-pip range between 1.3318 and 1.3350. Price forecasts circulating in Asia point toward 1.3240 as the next downside magnet. Cable is sitting right on its session low, making the 1.3318 level the line in the sand for London bulls. A hold there and reclaim of 1.3350 would suggest the Asian move was overdone.

AUD/USD — 0.7050
The session’s biggest G10 casualty, down 1.15%. The move looks driven by the risk-off backdrop rather than domestic factors — copper actually rose 0.65%, which would normally support the Aussie. The disconnect suggests positioning is driving this, not fundamentals. Asian low at 0.7022 is the level to watch; a probe below 0.70 would be the first test of that handle since the pair bounced in late May. Resistance at the session high of 0.7064.

USD/NOK — 9.4607
Up 1.33% and the weakest G10 currency by a wide margin — counterintuitive given the 4.5% oil surge. NOK typically tracks crude higher, so this divergence screams positioning flush: leveraged NOK longs built on the oil-strength thesis got caught by the broader risk-off wave. If crude holds above $94, expect London to start fading this move. The 9.47 high caps the topside for now.

USD/JPY — 160.21
The outlier. While USD rallied 0.8–1.3% against everything else, it gained just 13 pips against the yen. That tells you JPY is the true safe-haven bid in this tape — matching the classic playbook where Middle East risk lifts both USD and JPY, netting the pair flat. The 160.39 session high sits near intervention-watch territory. London traders will be cautious here — headlines already flag BoJ intervention risk capping GBP/JPY gains.

London Calendar Watch

Monday opens are typically light on scheduled data, but three factors will shape the first London hour. First, ECB commentary — after ING’s note that hawkish rhetoric may not prevent EUR downside, any ECB speaker crossing the wires will be parsed for rate-path signals. Second, start-of-week institutional flows: the weekend geopolitical escalation means risk desks will be repricing on the London open, and the first 30 minutes of EUR/USD and GBP/USD volume will reveal whether real money is adding to the Asian session’s USD bid or fading it. Third, oil derivative markets open for full European liquidity — the crude move happened in thin Asian hours and needs confirmation in London. If Brent holds above $97, the risk-off tone extends.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD bias is defensive. The Asian session set the direction, and London opens don’t typically reverse overnight moves of this magnitude on a Monday — they tend to extend them by another 20–30 pips before mean-reversion kicks in during the US crossover. The AUD/USD-crude divergence and NOK weakness create potential snap-back trades if oil holds, but those are counter-trend and need confirmation. The DXY at 100.1 looks like it wants higher — the flat print masks a dollar that’s strong against everything except the yen.

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