Asian Session Summary

The dollar gave back Monday’s gains through the Asian session, with DXY sliding 0.13% to 99.92 as geopolitical risk premiums unwound. An Iran-Israel truce knocked WTI crude down 1.71% to $89.74 and Brent 1.29% to $93.03 — a relief valve that pulled the bid from the greenback across the board. NZD/USD was the standout mover, surging 0.54% to 0.5828 on broad risk appetite and positive China data spillover. AUD/USD followed at +0.15%, though copper’s 0.85% rally to $6.384 suggests the Aussie has room to catch up. JPY crosses drifted sideways with USD/JPY pinned near 160.20, suggesting the yen is taking its cues from rates rather than risk sentiment today. Gold held firm at $4,349, up 0.31% — a weaker dollar plus residual hedging demand keeping the metal supported even as headline risk fades.

Key Pairs for London

NZD/USD — 0.5828
The session’s biggest mover and the one most likely to see follow-through into London. The pair rallied 54 pips off the 0.5801 low, clearing the Asian session high at 0.5848 before pulling back slightly. That 0.5848 level is the one to watch — a clean break above it targets the 0.5860-0.5870 zone. Support at 0.5800 is the line in the sand for bulls. The move looks driven by China optimism and broad commodity-FX demand rather than NZD-specific news, which makes it susceptible to reversal if European risk appetite sours.

GBP/USD — 1.3368
Cable is pressing against the 1.3375 session high after a steady grind higher from 1.3332. The pair has added 33 pips on the day, with the move looking technically clean — no gap-and-fade, just steady accumulation. Above 1.3375, there’s little resistance until 1.3400, a psychologically important round number that London dealers will be watching. EUR/GBP slipping to 0.8630 confirms sterling is outperforming the euro, not just riding a weaker dollar. Any UK-specific catalysts in the London morning could accelerate the move.

EUR/USD — 1.1542
Grinding higher but lacking conviction. The pair sits mid-range between the 1.1531 low and 1.1555 high — a tight 24-pip band that suggests Asia was positioning rather than committing. German industrial production data gave the euro a mild bid, but the move hasn’t extended. London needs to decide whether 1.1555 is a lid or a launchpad. A break above puts 1.1580 in play; failure and a fade back through 1.1530 reopens the downside toward 1.1500.

USD/NOK — 9.4885
The outlier. While most of the dollar complex weakened, NOK sold off despite falling oil prices — USD/NOK rose 0.36% to 9.4885, almost tagging the 9.4907 session high. The disconnect between NOK weakness and the broader risk-on tone is notable. WTI’s 1.71% drop is the likely culprit, given Norway’s petroleum export sensitivity. If oil stabilises in London, this pair could mean-revert toward 9.4500 support. If crude keeps falling, the 9.50 handle is exposed.

AUD/JPY — 112.95
A risk barometer sitting just below its 113.18 session high. Copper strength and easing geopolitical tension both support this cross, but the muted +0.04% move suggests the market wants a fresh catalyst. A London break above 113.18 would be a clean risk-on signal; a fade below 112.64 warns that the overnight optimism is fading.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday’s London session is relatively light on tier-one data. The German industrial production print already crossed in the Asian session and gave the euro a small lift. Traders should watch for any follow-up ECB commentary — several Governing Council members have been active on the speaking circuit this week, and any remarks on the rate path could jolt EUR crosses. UK-side, no marquee releases are scheduled, but housing and labour market data often drops mid-week this time of month, so watch for any early prints that could move sterling. The bigger macro story remains the Iran-Israel truce — further headlines confirming or complicating the ceasefire will drive oil and, by extension, NOK, CAD, and broader risk appetite through the session.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans mildly bullish into London but needs to clear 1.1555 to attract momentum buyers — otherwise it’s a fade-the-range session. GBP/USD has the cleaner setup, with cable’s steady bid and EUR/GBP weakness both pointing to sterling outperformance; a 1.3400 test looks plausible if risk holds. Commodity-linked pairs are split — AUD and NZD should benefit from copper strength and China optimism, while CAD and NOK face headwinds from crude’s drop. The dollar tone is soft, with DXY sitting below 100 and safe-haven demand draining out, but the move lacks aggression — sellers are present, not dominant.

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