Crude was the trade Tuesday — and the trade everything else hinged on. WTI fell 6.15% to $75.78, printing below $80 for the first time since Israel and Iran started shooting. Markets read it as a real ceasefire being closer than priced. That single move drove the entire risk surface: Dow industrials hit a record close at 51,999.67 (+0.64%) on cheap-oil economic optimism, but the Nasdaq broke 1.15% lower as semiconductors rolled over and bonds rallied 6 basis points to a 4.43% 10-year yield. The second domino — Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference without a dot plot — lands at 2pm ET today. The bond market is pricing one of those outcomes correctly. The equity market is pricing the other.

What moved overnight

Tuesday’s tape was the cleanest two-direction rotation we’ve seen since the early-year chip blowoff. The Dow closed at 51,999.67 (+0.64%), a record-print headline the financial press wanted. Underneath, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell to 26,376.34 (–1.15%), the Russell 2000 (^RUT) to 2,939.19 (–0.87%), and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) split the difference at 7,511.35 (–0.57%). That is not a risk-on day — it is a sector rotation. The 10-year (^TNX) settled at 4.43% (down from 4.49% Monday), the 30-year (^TYX) at 4.93%, and the VIX inched to 16.41 (+1.3%) — still calm given the headline tape. CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 9.5% and Moderna (MRNA) added 6.3% on the upside; Gildan (GIL) dropped 18.8% on a guidance miss and Netflix (NFLX) shed 3.84% on profit-taking. The number that actually mattered was crude: $75.78, down $4.97 in one session — the largest one-day drop in WTI since the war began.

What investors are watching online right now

The conversation online has narrowed to two stories. The first is SpaceX. Its private valuation crossed $2.8 trillion this week, briefly leapfrogging Amazon’s public market cap and putting Microsoft inside reach, per CNBC. MarketWatch called the SpaceX trading “bonkers” and noted a massive cash influx into the new SpaceX-exposure ETFs. Cathie Wood disclosed a $529.7M position in a “popular new stock” — investors online are debating whether it’s tied to that same SpaceX trade, and whether the private-market mark is anchored to anything you can actually transact at. Google search interest is surging on “how to invest in SpaceX,” which is exactly the wrong question when the answer is “you can’t, directly.”

The second is the Fed format itself. CNBC reported overnight that Chair Warsh intends to publish today’s Summary of Economic Projections without the dot plot — a clean break from the Powell-era convention. Retail chatter is fixated on whether removing the dots makes monetary policy more or less predictable; bond desks we have been reading think it forces front-end pricing back onto pure data dependency. We will have a full read on the SpaceX private-market angle in /private; for Tuesday’s chip rotation by cap tier, see our Movers recap.

Three things to watch today

FOMC decision, 2pm ET. Consensus expects a hold. Watch whether the statement softens its “balance of risks” language. If Warsh holds the language steady and skips the dots, the message is hawkish-by-omission — the Fed is declining to commit to a cut path on paper.

The new SEP format itself. The dot plot has been a market input since 2012. Removing it is the watch-item, not a footnote. If it lands and bonds sell off, the absence got priced as a hawkish signal. If 10s rally further, the market read it as forward flexibility.

Crude follow-through. If WTI holds sub-$80 through the European session, the energy-rotation trade has legs and the Dow record is a leading indicator. If oil bounces above $82 on any Hormuz headline — ships still are not transiting per MarketWatch — Tuesday’s reflation print was a one-day affair.

Bottom line

The Dow record is the headline. The actual story is the bond market. Yields fell six basis points on a day when industrials ripped — that is not a clean reflation read, it is bonds telling you growth is softer than the Dow’s tape suggests. Watch the 10-year at 2:30pm ET, not the Dow at 4pm. If yields close below 4.40% after Warsh speaks, the bond market thinks he leaned dovish without the dots to prove it. If 10s round-trip back above 4.50%, the no-dots format read as hawkish, and Tuesday’s rotation reverses by Thursday open.