Overnight Summary

The dollar steamrolled G10 peers overnight, with DXY punching +0.84% back above the 100.4 handle on a session defined by broad risk-off flows and commodity liquidation. Copper led the commodity rout at -1.94%, gold shed -1.26% to 4,276, and WTI crude dropped -1.37% to $75.01 — a triple hit that crushed the commodity-linked currencies. NZD/USD fell nearly a full percent, GBP/USD gave up -0.87%, and AUD/USD slid -0.76% as the greenback bid swept through every corner of the G10 complex.

The standout divergence: USD/JPY barely moved, grinding just +0.20% to 160.55. With every cross-yen pair printing red — NZD/JPY -0.75%, GBP/JPY -0.66%, AUD/JPY -0.59% — the yen was the only currency keeping pace with dollar strength. That’s a textbook risk-off signal buried inside the headline dollar move.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/SEK +1.07% to 9.4976 — The session’s biggest mover. The krona got hit from both sides: dollar strength on the bid and the commodity/risk selloff weighing on Sweden’s export-heavy economy. SEK is now testing the 9.50 handle, a level that has acted as resistance through much of Q2.

NZD/USD -0.95% to 0.5772 — The kiwi took the worst of it among the majors. Copper’s -1.94% decline is the direct read-through — New Zealand’s dairy-heavy trade book correlates tightly with Chinese demand proxied through copper. The 0.5750 floor is in sight; a break opens the path toward 0.5700.

GBP/USD -0.87% to 1.3299 — Cable cracked below 1.33 intra-session before settling right on it. The move looks dollar-driven rather than sterling-specific, with EUR/GBP barely budging at +0.07%. That cross stability suggests this is a pure USD story, not a UK repricing.

AUD/USD -0.76% to 0.7020 — Copper’s nearly 2% drop did the damage. The Aussie is sitting right on the 0.7000 psychological level — a clean break below would be the first since mid-May. Iron ore sentiment and tomorrow’s Asian commodity open will decide if 0.70 holds.

USD/CAD +0.76% to 1.4096 — WTI crude dropping -1.37% to $75.01 handed the loonie a session it couldn’t fight. USD/CAD is back above 1.41, with the pair now eyeing the 1.4150 zone that capped rallies earlier this month.

EUR/USD -0.75% to 1.1507 — The euro gave ground but outperformed the antipodeans and sterling. EUR/GBP’s flat print at 0.8646 confirms the euro held its relative bid within Europe. The 1.1500 round number is the immediate support to watch.

USD/NOK +0.64% to 9.5926 — The krone tracked crude lower but didn’t fall as hard as SEK, consistent with Norway’s sovereign wealth fund cushion effect during broad risk-off moves. Still, both Scandis are trading heavy.

USD/CHF +0.59% to 0.7991 — The franc lost ground against the dollar but held up in the crosses. EUR/CHF slipping -0.18% to 0.9192 and GBP/CHF dropping -0.31% show the franc still catching a mild safe-haven bid — just not enough to resist the dollar steamroller.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens into a 0.7020 AUD/USD — right on the 0.70 handle that the market has respected for weeks. Copper’s overnight rout puts that level under immediate pressure. If Chinese commodity futures gap lower on the open, AUD could test 0.6980 before any real buying interest shows up.

Tokyo opens with USD/JPY at 160.55, barely moved despite DXY’s +0.84% surge. That yen resilience is the session’s clearest risk signal. If cross-yen selling continues — NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY are the most extended — it would confirm the risk-off tone is carrying into Asia. A USD/JPY push above 161.00 would require the risk mood to flip, which the commodity backdrop doesn’t support.

DXY above 100.4 is a headwind for every Asian FX pair. EM Asia currencies — KRW, TWD, THB — typically lag G10 moves by a session, so expect follow-through pressure on the regional complex today.

Bottom Line

This was a clean dollar-strength session reinforced by a commodity selloff, with the yen’s relative outperformance flagging genuine risk aversion rather than just a rates play. AUD/USD at the 0.7000 line is the pair to watch heading into Asia — if copper finds no floor on the Shanghai open, that level breaks.

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