Where Asia Closed Last Week

Thursday’s session across Asia was brutal. South Korea’s KOSPI bore the worst of it, cratering 5.81% to 8,411 — the sharpest single-day drop in months. Taiwan’s TAIEX fell 3.64% to 44,572, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 4.15% to close at 69,361. The semiconductor-heavy Northeast Asian trio took the heaviest damage, with chip supply chain concerns and global growth fears hitting in tandem.

China markets followed the same script. The Shanghai Composite dropped 2.26% to 4,027 while the Shenzhen Component fell harder at 3.44%, dragging tech and growth names lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.76% to 22,672 — less severe than the mainland boards but still firmly red. Singapore’s Straits Times slipped 0.52% to 5,192.

The only green on the board: Australia’s ASX 200 eked out a 0.18% gain to 8,764, helped by commodity support, and India’s Nifty 50 managed +0.14% to 24,056 (Wednesday close). New Zealand’s NZX 50 dipped 0.39%. The split was clear — commodity-linked and domestically oriented markets held up; export and semiconductor economies got crushed.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street didn’t offer much comfort. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.38% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.72%, with technology (XLK -1.87%) leading losses. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.24%. Micron making headlines as potentially the third most profitable US company after Nvidia and Google wasn’t enough to lift the sector — broader risk-off flows dominated.

The Russell 2000 bucked the trend at +0.31%, and financials (XLF +0.22%) held green. That rotation away from mega-cap tech and into domestically tilted small caps is a pattern that typically spells more pain for Asia’s semiconductor exporters. The VIX settled at 18.4, down 2.54% — elevated but not panicked, suggesting the selloff is orderly rather than liquidation-driven.

For Monday’s Asia open, the Nasdaq 100 weakness maps directly onto KOSPI and TAIEX. Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC suppliers will likely see continued pressure unless futures recover overnight.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil pushed higher with WTI up 1.21% to $70.10 as US-Iran military exchanges escalated before a reported halt was called. That’s a tailwind for ASX energy names like Woodside and Santos, and should keep Middle East risk premium in crude prices through the week. Gold held steady at $4,080, up 0.11% — the safe-haven bid is present but not surging, which matches the VIX signal of controlled rather than panicked selling.

Copper gained 0.89% to $6.20, a positive signal for ASX miners like BHP and Rio Tinto. AUD/USD was flat at 0.69, down a marginal 0.05%. USD/JPY sat at 162, barely changed — the yen staying weak at these levels keeps pressure on the BOJ intervention watch and supports Japanese exporter earnings, though that clearly wasn’t enough to prevent Thursday’s Nikkei rout. Watch USD/CNH at the PBoC fix for any signal Beijing wants to lean against further yuan weakness after the mainland selloff.

What to Watch Today

• KOSPI gap risk: A 5.8% drop followed by a weekend and more US tech weakness creates real gap-down risk for Korean semis. Watch the first 30 minutes of trading in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for any institutional buying that might signal a floor.
• US-Iran ceasefire durability: Headlines report a halt to airstrikes was called. If it holds, the oil premium unwinds and energy names give back gains. If it doesn’t, crude pushes toward $72 and Middle East-exposed shipping and insurance names re-price.
• China policy signals: After Shanghai dropped through 4,050 support and Shenzhen fell 3.4%, watch for any PBoC or state media commentary that might telegraph intervention. The 4,000 level on the Shanghai Composite is a psychological floor that Beijing has defended before.
• ASX relative strength: Australia was one of only two green markets Thursday. With copper and oil both firmer overnight, the ASX may continue to decouple from the broader Asia selloff — miners and energy could lead again.

Bottom Line

Monday’s Asia session opens into a risk-off setup. The broad-based selloff across Northeast Asia last week, compounded by overnight US tech weakness, points to further downside pressure on semiconductor and export-heavy markets like KOSPI and TAIEX. Commodity-linked markets — particularly the ASX — have a shot at outperforming again, but any escalation in Middle East tensions could shift the calculus fast. Luna3 sees this as a session to watch for dip-buying signals in Korea and China rather than chasing strength in a fragile tape.

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