Here’s the US Weekly Recap post:

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The S&P 500 closed the holiday-shortened week up +1.43% at 744.8 after a soft June payrolls print took the air out of rate-hike expectations and sent the VIX tumbling 14% to 15.81 — a clear risk-on repricing anchored by one simple theme: the labor market is cooling fast enough that the Fed can stay on hold.

The Week in the Indices

The Dow was the standout, climbing +1.66% to 527.9 and touching a fresh all-time high on July 2 before markets closed for Independence Day. The S&P 500 followed at +1.43%, buoyed by defensive and cyclical leadership outside of mega-cap tech. The Nasdaq 100 slipped -0.53% to 712.6, dragged lower by a mid-week semiconductor sell-off that weighed on the cap-weighted index. The Russell 2000 dipped -0.44% to 297.6 — small caps couldn’t hold early-week gains as the soft payrolls number raised questions about consumer spending durability.

The VIX at 15.81 sits in neutral territory — not complacent enough to flash a contrarian warning, but well below the anxiety threshold of 20. The -14.12% weekly drop reflects how quickly the market repriced away from a hawkish September scenario.

Sector Winners & Losers

Healthcare (XLV) led all sectors at +5.21%, its best weekly gain in months, with pharma and biotech catching defensive bids as growth expectations shifted. Financials (XLF) were a close second at +4.06% — counterintuitive given falling yields, but the steepening curve (10Y down more than 30Y) actually benefits net interest margins. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) added +3.33%, suggesting the market read the soft jobs print as rate-relief rather than recession signal.

On the other side, Technology (XLK) fell -2.16% as multiple analyst downgrades hit cybersecurity and cloud names. CrowdStrike’s downgrade to Neutral by Arete contributed to broader software weakness. Energy (XLE) dropped -1.61% alongside oil, and Industrials (XLI) were flat at -0.11%. The rotation out of momentum tech into value and healthcare tells you the market is repositioning for a rate-pause world, not a growth-acceleration one.

Rates, Commodities & the Dollar

The 10-year Treasury yield fell -1.77% to 4.372%, while the 30-year declined a more modest -0.75% to 4.864%. The front-end move was sharper — the 2-year dropped four basis points post-payrolls — confirming the market is pricing out near-term hikes. CME FedWatch now shows September hike odds at just 50.7%, down from 62.8% before Friday’s data.

Gold rallied +2.66% to $4,187 and silver surged +6.08% to $62.81 — both benefiting from dollar weakness and falling real yields. The DXY slid -0.50% to 100.9, with EUR/USD gaining +0.69% and GBP/USD jumping +1.23%. WTI crude slipped -0.65% to $68.78, capped by demand concerns from the weak payrolls data. Copper gained +1.34% to $6.224, holding its ground as a China-recovery trade despite the soft US data.

What Drove the Week

The June nonfarm payrolls report was the week’s defining event. The economy added just 57,000 jobs versus the 115,000 consensus, with April and May revised lower by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the participation rate dropped to 61.5% — the lowest since March 2021. This is not a healthy labor market tightening; it’s workers leaving the labor force.

The market’s reaction was unambiguous: buy bonds, sell the dollar, rotate out of momentum tech. ServiceNow’s upgrade to Buy by Guggenheim was a lone bright spot for enterprise software, but the broader tape told a story of investors pre-positioning for a Fed that’s done tightening — or at least pausing longer than the hawks expected two weeks ago.

Week Ahead

The bias heading into next week leans risk-on for rate-sensitive sectors, but the Nasdaq’s underperformance deserves monitoring — a failure to reclaim 715 on the Nasdaq 100 would confirm the rotation has legs beyond a one-week trade. The biggest catalyst is Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from the June meeting, which will reveal how close the committee was to a rate decision. Expect vol to stay compressed unless those minutes surprise hawkish. We’ll be tracking the rotation signal at Luna3 as the post-payrolls repricing plays out across asset classes.

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