Session at a Glance

DAX surges 4.5% as Bayer’s Supreme Court victory and weak US jobs data ignite broad European rally.

Germany’s DAX led Europe with a 4.5% weekly gain after Bayer shares exploded higher on a landmark US Supreme Court ruling dismissing thousands of Roundup lawsuits — the single biggest catalyst of the week. Simultaneously, Friday’s shockingly weak US payrolls print (57K vs 115K expected) took rate-hike fears off the table, sending risk assets higher across the continent.

The rally broadened beyond Germany: Euro STOXX 50 rose 3%, Italy’s MIB gained 3%, and Spain’s IBEX added 2.2%. Defence names like Thales surged on Europe’s ongoing rearmament spending cycle, while banks (BBVA, financials broadly) extended their multi-month run on strong profitability metrics. The FTSE 100 lagged at +1.6%, dragged lower by oil majors BP and Shell as crude prices fell on reports of a US-Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz flows.

The week’s losers clustered in energy and luxury — BP, ENI, and Kering all fell as oil weakness and soft Chinese demand continued to weigh. The through-line: macro relief (weak jobs, lower oil, cooling inflation) rewarded growth and cyclicals while punishing commodity-linked defensives.

Here are the biggest movers across Europe’s major exchanges for the week ending Saturday, July 4, grouped by market — each figure is the stock’s move over the full trading week.

United Kingdom (LSE)

↑ LSEG +7.22%

Large-cap · 8608 (local)

Why: LSEG rallied on continued momentum from its strongest Q1 revenue growth since the Refinitiv acquisition, with upgraded 2026 guidance and a massive buyback returning nearly 10% of market cap to shareholders.

Pattern: Momentum continuation on a fundamentals re-rate — stock grinding higher on upgraded guidance with institutional flows accelerating into data/analytics names over traditional finance.

↓ BP -3.42%

Large-cap · 464.4 (local)

Why: BP fell as crude oil prices declined on reports of a US-Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz flows, compounded by ongoing restructuring uncertainty under new CEO Meg O’Neill’s strategy reset.

Pattern: Downtrend continuation — BP has underperformed crude by a wide margin since March, reflecting structural overhang from management transition layered onto the commodity weakness.

Germany (Xetra / DAX)

↑ BAYN +23.77%

Mid-cap · 49 (local)

Why: Bayer surged after the US Supreme Court ruled in its favour on Roundup lawsuits, effectively dismissing thousands of pending cases and removing the company’s largest single legal overhang.

Pattern: Binary catalyst breakout from a multi-year base — stock had been compressed by litigation risk for years; the ruling triggered a violent short-covering squeeze and fundamental re-rate in a single week.

↓ DTE -8.13%

Large-cap · 24.29 (local)

Why: Deutsche Telekom extended its recent decline, now down over 17% in 30 days, as lingering uncertainty around potential T-Mobile US merger talks and valuation compression in telecoms weighed on shares.

Pattern: Mean-reversion after an extended run — stock had delivered 57% over five years and is now correcting toward fair value as the sector de-rates on merger overhang and capital allocation uncertainty.

France (Euronext Paris)

↑ HO +10.07%

Large-cap · 240.4 (local)

Why: Thales rallied as Europe’s structural rearmament cycle continues to drive defence spending commitments higher, with the company positioned as a primary beneficiary of increased European NATO budgets targeting 3.5% of GDP by 2035.

Pattern: Sector momentum continuation — defence names have been in a multi-quarter uptrend as European governments accelerate procurement timelines; the weekly move is part of a broader theme, not an isolated event.

↓ KER -5.73%

Large-cap · 252.6 (local)

Why: Kering fell after a pre-results analyst call prompted Barclays to warn that full-year targets look increasingly unattainable, with Gucci posting its eleventh consecutive quarter of organic revenue decline.

Pattern: Downtrend continuation in a structurally challenged name — luxury sector rotation away from Kering into peers with better China exposure recovery; stock trading near multi-year lows with no technical floor established.

Netherlands (Euronext AMS)

↑ RAND +5.00%

Mid-cap · 27.3 (local)

Why: No single catalyst — Randstad drifted higher with the broader European cyclical rally as weak US jobs data paradoxically boosted risk appetite by removing rate-hike fears from the market.

Pattern: Broad cyclical participation — staffing firms are macro-sensitive and benefited from the week’s risk-on tone; the +5% move tracked the regional index rally without standalone news.

↓ PRX -1.19%

Large-cap · 37.33 (local)

Why: Prosus dipped modestly despite launching new AI products (ToqanClaw, Zapia), as Chinese tech exposure continued to face headwinds from soft consumer sentiment in China and broader EM risk-off flows.

Pattern: Mild underperformance relative to the market — Prosus lagged the AEX’s +2.1% weekly gain, suggesting Tencent-linked names faced rotational selling as capital moved into European domestic cyclicals.

Switzerland (SIX)

↑ LONN +5.10%

Mid-cap · 564.6 (local)

Why: No single catalyst — Lonza gained as the broader healthcare and CDMO sector attracted flows on defensive rotation within the week’s rally, supported by steady demand for biologics manufacturing capacity.

Pattern: Quiet momentum grind in a quality compounder — Lonza has been steadily re-rating as biotech funding stabilises; the weekly move reflects sector rotation rather than a stock-specific event.

↓ ABBN -2.08%

Large-cap · 84.92 (local)

Why: ABB slipped modestly as industrials paused after a strong prior run, with no specific negative news — the decline reflects profit-taking in a name that has outperformed the SMI year-to-date.

Pattern: Minor mean-reversion within an uptrend — a 2% pullback in the context of a stock near highs is consolidation, not a trend change; volume likely lighter than average.

Italy (Borsa Italiana)

↑ RACE +7.80%

Large-cap · 331.5 (local)

Why: Ferrari rallied on buzz around a new limited-edition V12 manual gearbox model reinforcing brand exclusivity, plus broader luxury-auto strength as the sector benefits from ultra-high-net-worth spending resilience.

Pattern: Premium brand momentum — Ferrari trades as a luxury good, not an automaker; the weekly move aligns with the broader risk-on tone while luxury peers like Kering falter, showing Ferrari’s pricing power moat.

↓ ENI -3.44%

Large-cap · 20.08 (local)

Why: ENI fell alongside BP and the broader European oil sector as crude prices declined on US-Iran deal optimism and an Erste Group downgrade citing lower energy price expectations for H2 2026.

Pattern: Sector-wide commodity drag — European integrated oil majors moved in lockstep lower this week; ENI’s decline mirrors BP’s, confirming this is an oil-price-driven theme rather than a company-specific issue.

Spain (BME / Madrid)

↑ BBVA +5.92%

Large-cap · 22.74 (local)

Why: BBVA extended its 110% one-year rally as the bank progresses through a €1.46 billion buyback while delivering 19.7% return on tangible equity — among the highest profitability in European banking.

Pattern: Momentum continuation in a structural re-rate — Spanish banks have re-priced as rate-sensitive earnings proved durable; BBVA’s buyback execution adds mechanical bid support beneath the trend.

↓ TEF -2.77%

Mid-cap · 3.55 (local)

Why: No single catalyst — Telefónica drifted lower as European telecoms broadly underperformed the rally, with capital rotating out of defensive yield plays into higher-beta cyclicals and financials.

Pattern: Sector rotation laggard — telecoms are bond proxies that underperform when risk appetite improves; Telefónica’s decline is the mirror image of BBVA’s gain within the same Spanish market.

Nordics (OMX / Stockholm)

↑ ALFA +2.62%

Mid-cap · 578.8 (local)

Why: No single catalyst — Alfa Laval gained as industrial cyclicals participated in the broad European rally, benefiting from improved sentiment around global manufacturing and energy transition equipment demand.

Pattern: Cyclical participation — the modest +2.6% gain tracks the regional benchmark closely, suggesting passive/index flows rather than active stock-picking driving the move.

↓ ERIC-B -2.44%

Mid-cap · 105.8 (local)

Why: Ericsson slipped as telecom equipment names faced margin pressure headlines — Nokia’s 138% run exposed margin concerns across the space, prompting profit-taking in peers including Ericsson.

Pattern: Sympathy weakness — when Nokia’s margin sustainability was questioned publicly, Ericsson caught the spillover selling as investors reassessed telecom capex cycle duration and equipment vendor profitability.

Reading the Week

The exchange-by-exchange breakdown above surfaces both market-specific catalysts and cross-border themes. When multiple European exchanges move together, look for a macro driver (USD/EUR move, ECB/BoE policy, commodity price, EU regulatory shift). Isolated single-exchange moves tend to reflect local earnings, regulatory news, or sector rotation.

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