Where Europe Closed Last Session

European markets went into the weekend on a broad risk-on note. Thursday’s session delivered green across every major index, with cyclical and value-heavy bourses leading the charge.

The AEX in Amsterdam posted the strongest gain at +0.97%, followed closely by Spain’s IBEX 35 at +0.92% — both benefiting from financials strength and commodity-linked names. The Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.82% to 6,412.68, its best single-session move in over a week. Germany’s DAX 40 climbed 0.78% to 25,779.31, with industrials and autos doing the heavy lifting. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.75% to 52,819.

France’s CAC 40 advanced a more modest 0.39% to 8,508.07 — luxury names held back by soft China sentiment, while banks contributed the bulk of the upside. Switzerland’s SMI added 0.50% to 14,424.24, with Nestlé and Roche providing defensive support. The UK’s FTSE 100 lagged slightly at +0.25% to 10,679.00, weighed down by a firmer pound and modest energy gains.

The takeaway: Thursday was a breadth day. Gains were wide, not concentrated. That kind of session tends to carry well into the following week — provided the overnight tone cooperates.

US Overnight Snapshot

The US session heading into the July 4 holiday weekend told a split story. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat, but the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.80% and the tech-heavy XLK sector fell a sharp 2.71%. That’s the kind of rotation that matters for Europe — ASML, SAP, Infineon, and the broader European semiconductor supply chain will feel pressure at the open.

Where the money went instead: Financials (XLF) jumped 1.53% and Materials (XLB) surged 1.94%. That’s a textbook value rotation, and it plays directly into European strengths. Euro-area banks, mining names like Rio Tinto and Glencore, and industrial conglomerates like Siemens stand to benefit from this flow pattern.

The VIX dropped 2.65% to 16.1 — comfortably below the 20 stress threshold. Low volatility heading into a Monday open tends to support gap-up attempts, though the tech drag could limit upside for DAX heavyweights.

Commodity + FX Watch

Gold advanced 1.32% toward $4,170, extending its safe-haven bid. European gold miners — Fresnillo, Endeavour Mining — should open with a tailwind. Copper rallied 1.64%, the strongest move in the overnight complex, which is a direct read-through to Glencore, Antofagasta, and Boliden.

WTI oil gained just 0.23% to $68.80, despite headlines that OPEC+ is raising output levels again. The muted reaction suggests the market has already priced in the supply increase, but it caps upside for Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies. Brent likely tracked a similar path.

On the FX side, USD/JPY pushed to 162 (+0.50%), reinforcing dollar strength against the yen. AUD/USD firmed 0.20% to 0.693, reflecting the copper bid. For European exporters — Airbus, LVMH, BMW — a stronger dollar versus the euro would be supportive, though we’ll need to watch EUR/USD at the London open for confirmation of that trend.

What to Watch Today

• Tech rotation spillover: With US tech down nearly 3% at the sector level, European tech names face a headwind. Watch ASML and SAP in the first 30 minutes — if they hold Thursday’s gains, it signals European buyers are willing to diverge from the US tape.
• US futures tone: Pre-market headlines show US stock futures rising as Wall Street looks to extend its post-holiday rally. If that holds into the European open, it gives London and Frankfurt a reason to push higher despite the Nasdaq drag.
• OPEC+ supply dynamics: The cartel is raising output again into falling crude prices. This is a headwind for the energy sector but a tailwind for European airlines and transport names. Ryanair, IAG, and Lufthansa could benefit if oil stays below $70.
• Momentum unwind risk: One headline flagged a potential violent unwind in the market’s momentum trade this month. European momentum names — those that have run hardest in Q2 — are vulnerable to a sharp pullback if US leadership rotation intensifies. Defense and luxury names with stretched valuations are the most exposed.

Bottom Line

Europe opens Monday with a constructive base: Thursday’s broad gains, low VIX, and strong commodity prices all favor continuation. The catch is the US tech rotation — if Nasdaq weakness deepens, it will drag the DAX and AEX lower through their semiconductor and tech weightings. The setup favors European financials, miners, and defensives over tech for the session ahead. At Luna3, we’re watching whether the value rotation that started in New York finds a second leg in London and Frankfurt.

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