Asian Session Summary

The Asian session delivered a clear theme: sell yen, buy risk. USD/JPY pushed through 162 and printed a session high at 162.32, within striking distance of the 163 handle that would mark fresh 40-year territory. The yen was the weakest G10 currency across the board — AUD/JPY led the crosses with a 0.76% gain, GBP/JPY added 0.52%, and EUR/JPY ground higher toward 185.40.

DXY edged up 0.16% to 101, though the dollar’s bid was narrow — concentrated against JPY and CAD rather than broad-based. Commodity markets split: copper rallied 2.18%, lifting the Aussie, while crude slipped on an OPEC+ output increase. Gold caught a 1.57% bid to 4177, suggesting some hedging underneath the risk-on surface.

Key Pairs for London

USD/JPY — 162.17
The marquee trade. Price broke above the nine-day EMA during the Asian session and is building a base above 162. The headline catalyst is straightforward: rate differentials remain wide and Japanese authorities have shown no appetite for intervention at these levels. Session high sits at 162.32. A London push through 162.50 opens 163.00 — the level analysts are flagging as a potential 40-year peak. Downside contained at 161.24 (today’s low).

AUD/USD — 0.6939
Copper’s 2.18% surge is doing the heavy lifting here. The Aussie is the best-performing G10 currency today, up 0.34% and flirting with the session high at 0.6949. The round number at 0.7000 is the obvious magnet — roughly 60 pips away. If London risk appetite holds and base metals stay bid, this pair has room to test that handle. Support at today’s low of 0.6925.

EUR/USD — 1.1430
Grinding in a tight 25-pip range between 1.1421 and 1.1446. The Asian session offered no conviction either way. London typically provides the directional resolution on these compressed Monday opens. A break above 1.1450 would reopen the topside toward 1.1480. Below 1.1420, sellers could push toward 1.1380. With FOMC Minutes due later this week, pre-positioning may keep the range narrow into midweek.

GBP/USD — 1.3349
Cable is quietly firm, up 0.08% with a session high at 1.3357. The pair is pressing toward 1.3400 — a level it hasn’t sustained above cleanly. EUR/GBP slipping 0.02% suggests modest sterling outperformance versus the euro. The Comcast-British broadcaster deal headline adds a small cross-border flow angle. Watch 1.3360 resistance; a clean break brings 1.3400 into scope.

USD/SEK — 9.6532
The Scandis are outperforming. USD/SEK dropped 0.32% in Asia with the session low at 9.56 — a sharp move for a pair that typically waits for European participation. USD/NOK followed at -0.23%. If European equities open firm, the Scandi bid could extend. Support for USD/SEK at 9.56; a break below targets 9.50.

London Calendar Watch

Monday calendars are typically light, and today is no exception for scheduled releases. The bigger framing is positional: this is FOMC Minutes week, and desks will be setting up for that midweek event. Any Fed speaker commentary today would carry outsized weight given the thin start-of-week liquidity.

The Deutsche Bank note flagging improved risk tone with dovish repricing sets the backdrop — if European equities follow US futures higher at the open, that dovish narrative could pressure EUR/USD lower as rate-cut expectations get pulled forward. On the commodity side, OPEC+’s decision to raise output again despite falling crude prices is worth monitoring through the London energy fix — further oil weakness would weigh on CAD and NOK into the afternoon.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks range-bound into midweek with FOMC Minutes as the next catalyst — lean neutral between 1.1420 and 1.1450 unless London delivers a breakout. GBP/USD has a mild bid and 1.3400 is the test. The cleaner trade is in the commodity bloc: AUD/USD has copper wind at its back and a round number target at 0.70, while CAD faces headwinds from falling crude. DXY’s modest bid is a JPY story, not a broad dollar story — the greenback is losing ground against Scandis and risk currencies, which keeps the overall USD tone mixed.

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