Asian Session Summary

The dollar index drifted lower through the Asian session, slipping 0.13% to 100.9 and breaking cleanly below 101 for the first time this week. The move was broad-based — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD all posted gains, while USD/CHF and the Scandis (SEK, NOK) added to dollar softness. Commodity markets told a split story: copper surged 2.5%, supporting risk-sensitive currencies, while crude oil pulled back over 1% despite overnight headlines about additional US strikes on Iran. Gold climbed above $4,100 (+1.18%), reflecting both the weaker dollar and geopolitical hedging demand. The yen was the outlier — USD/JPY barely moved, stuck near 162.34 as carry demand continued to offset any safe-haven bid.

Key Pairs for London

NZD/USD — 0.5736 (+1.04%)
The standout mover. Kiwi ripped from 0.5702 to 0.5737 in a clean trend day through Asia. The pair is now testing the top of its session range at 0.5737. London needs to decide whether this is a breakout or an exhaustion move. A hold above 0.5720 keeps momentum buyers in control; a failure there opens a retrace toward 0.5700. Copper strength is the tailwind.

GBP/USD — 1.3417 (+0.51%)
Cable pushed through 1.3400 and hit 1.3429 before settling. The half-percent gain is notable given no UK-specific catalyst — this is dollar weakness doing the heavy lifting. The session high at 1.3429 is the first resistance; a clean break targets 1.3450. Support sits at the session low of 1.3388. EUR/GBP slipping to 0.8524 confirms sterling is outperforming the euro, not just riding the anti-dollar wave.

EUR/USD — 1.1439 (+0.31%)
Grinding higher but lagging GBP and NZD. The pair tagged 1.1451 intraday — that’s the level London will test. A break above 1.1450 brings 1.1475-1.1500 into view. The German trade surplus headline (May data widening) is a mild positive for the euro but not a session-mover. Floor at 1.1419.

USD/CHF — 0.8063 (-0.31%)
Bears rejected the 0.8100 handle cleanly — the pair topped at 0.8085 and is now pressing the session low at 0.8053. MUFG’s note flagged yield support for the dollar, but the price action says otherwise. A break below 0.8050 would be the first sub-0.8050 print this week. Swissy is catching a dual bid from dollar weakness and safe-haven flows tied to Iran.

AUD/JPY — 112.62 (+0.21%)
The risk barometer. Copper’s 2.5% surge is propping AUD while the yen stays offered on carry. The cross is grinding higher in a tight range (112.51–112.76). A push above 112.76 would signal London risk appetite extending the Asia bid. Worth watching alongside equity index futures at the European open.

London Calendar Watch

Thursday’s London session lands mid-week for European data. No tier-one UK or eurozone releases dominate the calendar, but traders should watch for any ECB speaker commentary — several governing council members have been active this week, and the euro’s grind higher could draw verbal pushback if 1.1450 breaks. The Iran escalation headlines add an unpredictable layer: oil’s 1.3% drop despite reports of additional US strikes suggests the market is either pricing in containment or waiting for London and New York to react. Any fresh geopolitical developments during the European morning could whipsaw crude-linked pairs (CAD, NOK) and reignite the gold bid.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both enter the London session on the front foot, but cable looks like the cleaner trade — outperforming on the crosses and holding above the 1.3400 round number with conviction. The commodity bloc (AUD, NZD, CAD) has room to extend if copper holds its gains and equities open firm, though NZD’s 1% gap higher makes it vulnerable to profit-taking if risk tone shifts. The DXY below 101 sets a soft tone for the dollar, but the slide has been orderly — no panic, no capitulation — which means a reversal only needs one hawkish headline or a rates move to trigger it.

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