Where Europe Closed Last Session

Continental bourses powered higher on Thursday while London lagged. The Euro STOXX 50 led the charge with a 1.28% gain to 6,284.27, its strongest single-session move in over a week. The DAX climbed 0.89% to 25,118.27 and the CAC 40 matched it at +0.90% to 8,326.62 — both lifted by broad-based strength in industrials and luxury names.

Southern Europe outperformed. The IBEX 35 rallied 1.14% to 19,322.80 and the FTSE MIB surged 1.09% to 52,382.00, with Italian banks and Spanish utilities doing the heavy lifting. The AEX gained 0.67% to 1,083.32 and the OMX Copenhagen 25 added 0.76% to 1,880.08 — Novo Nordisk likely contributing to the Danish move.

The outlier was London. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.16% to 10,472.50, dragged by energy majors and miners that couldn’t offset modest gains in financials. The SMI eked out a 0.29% gain to 14,215.30, consistent with its usual defensive posture. The UK-vs-continent gap is widening — Thursday’s session was the latest data point in a trend that favors euro-area cyclicals over sterling-denominated defensives.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street delivered a clean risk-on session. The S&P 500 rose 0.81% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.30%, with the tech-heavy XLK sector ETF leading all groups at +2.18%. The Russell 2000 gained 1.28%, signaling the bid wasn’t confined to mega-caps. The VIX collapsed 6.27% to 15.8 — comfortably below the 20 threshold and signaling institutional comfort with current positioning.

Financials added 1.04%, a positive read-through for European banks at the open. Energy was the sole laggard at -1.40%, which will weigh on Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies as London and Paris open. The tech strength is the headline carry-over: ASML, SAP, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics should all see opening bids on the back of Nasdaq’s session.

Commodity + FX Watch

Gold dipped 0.21% to around $4,120, a mild headwind for Swiss gold refiners but nothing to move the needle on broader sentiment. WTI oil was essentially flat at +0.08% near $72.10 — not enough to rescue the energy sector, but not adding further downside either. Nat-gas headlines flagged larger US inventory builds, which could pressure European gas-linked utilities if TTF follows suit. Copper gained 0.95%, a constructive signal for mining names like Glencore and Boliden.

On FX, USD/JPY fell 0.59% to 162, reflecting yen strength after the Fed minutes revealed rate-path uncertainty. AUD/USD gained 0.25% to 0.695. The dollar softness broadly supports EUR — a firmer euro is a mild margin headwind for exporters like Airbus and LVMH, but the growth signal embedded in the risk-on tone more than offsets it for now.

What to Watch Today

• EasyJet bidding war. Apollo has topped a rival private-equity bid for easyJet. This is the most direct Europe-specific catalyst — expect the stock to gap higher and lift the broader UK mid-cap travel sector. Watch Ryanair and Wizz Air for sympathy moves and any counter-bid headlines during the session.
• Fed minutes fallout. The “deep divide” on the US rate outlook keeps the dollar under pressure and supports European risk appetite. But it also means Treasury yields stay volatile — watch Bund-Treasury spread dynamics, especially if the 10-year Bund yield drifts higher, which would pressure rate-sensitive DAX real estate names.
• SK Hynix and the semiconductor bid. SK Hynix raising $26.5 billion in a US offering underscores the insatiable appetite for memory and AI infrastructure spending. ASML and BE Semiconductor should trade well on the open. Any read-through to European chip equipment order books is worth tracking.
• Energy divergence. US energy stocks fell 1.40% overnight while oil itself was flat — that’s a sentiment call, not a supply story. If the pattern holds in Europe, Shell and BP may underperform the broader FTSE even on a modest index bounce.

Bottom Line

The setup into Friday’s European open tilts risk-on. Continental indices closed strong, the US session added momentum with tech leading and VIX collapsing to 15.8, and the dollar is softening on Fed uncertainty — all tailwinds for euro-area equities. The FTSE 100 is the weak link, caught between energy drag and sterling sensitivity, but even London should find support from the easyJet bidding war and broad risk appetite. Luna3 sees this as a session where cyclicals and tech outperform defensives across the region.

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