Previous Session Close

Thursday delivered a broad green tape with tech doing the heavy lifting. The Nasdaq 100 surged 1.66%, its strongest session in weeks, while the S&P 500 added 0.85% and the Russell 2000 gained 1.28%. The Dow lagged at +0.27%, weighed down by its defensives-heavy composition. The VIX ticked up marginally to 15.86 — still comfortably below 20 and signaling no real fear, though the slight uptick on a green day hints at hedging demand into the weekend.

Technology (XLK +2.18%) was the clear leader, with Consumer Discretionary (+1.34%) and Financials (+1.04%) riding the momentum. Energy (XLE -1.40%) was the lone material drag as oil remained rangebound. Healthcare (-0.08%) flatlined. The rotation message: risk appetite is alive, but it’s concentrated in growth over value.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are painting a mixed picture heading into Friday. S&P 500 futures are essentially flat at 7,590 (+0.02%), while Nasdaq futures have drifted lower by 0.19% — a modest giveback after Thursday’s run. Dow futures are the relative outperformer at +0.21%, and Russell futures are unchanged at 3,008.

The slight Nasdaq weakness suggests some profit-taking in the names that ran hardest yesterday. The overall tone is consolidative rather than corrective — no overnight catalyst has shifted the macro picture meaningfully. Friday sessions ahead of weekends tend to see lower conviction unless a clear directional trigger emerges early.

Commodity & FX Setup

Gold is pulling back 0.37% to $4,116, consistent with Thursday’s risk-on tone bleeding into overnight positioning. Silver is down harder at -0.78%, reinforcing the soft precious metals read. Neither is flashing a risk-off warning.

WTI crude is up 0.33% to $72.32 — a modest bid, but not enough to rescue the energy sector from its Thursday selloff. Copper’s 0.79% gain to $6.26 is the more interesting signal — the industrial metal continues to price in growth expectations, supporting the cyclical rotation thesis.

The dollar is weakening modestly with DXY down 0.09% to 100.8. EUR/USD is firmer at 1.143 and GBP/USD at 1.343. USD/JPY dropped 0.45% to 161.8, with yen strength likely tied to positioning ahead of next week’s BOJ commentary. A softer dollar is generally supportive for US equities and commodities.

Catalyst Watch

Fed minutes divide. Wednesday’s release showed a deep split among FOMC members on the rate-outlook path. That tension is still being digested. The 10Y yield at 4.539% (down 0.66% on the session) and the 30Y at 5.053% suggest the bond market is leaning toward the dovish camp, but any hawkish Fedspeak today could reverse that quickly.

AI data center blockade. Reports that $130 billion in AI data center projects were blocked is a direct headwind for the hyperscaler capex narrative that’s been fueling semis and infrastructure plays. Watch NVDA, AVGO, and the data center REITs for follow-through selling — or, if the market shrugs it off, that’s a bullish tell about conviction in the AI buildout.

Earnings volatility. Delta reported record revenue and a profit beat, yet the broader theme from headlines is that even strong numbers aren’t enough to impress — post-earnings swings are getting wilder. That sets up a tricky tape for any names reporting into the close today.

Bottom Line

The bias into Friday’s open leans neutral-to-cautious. Thursday’s tech rally was strong enough to carry sentiment, but flat futures and the AI data center overhang suggest the market needs a fresh catalyst to push higher. The S&P 500 at 7,590 is the level to watch — a clean hold above Thursday’s close keeps the short-term uptrend intact, while a fade below opens up a weekend de-risk window. The Fed’s rate divide is the background variable; the AI capex story is the foreground one. Luna3 will be tracking both into the bell.

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