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The Week in the Indices

Tech carried the tape this week while everything else stalled. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.81% to 725.5, powered by semiconductor momentum and mega-cap strength. The S&P 500 followed at +1.37% to 755. But the rally was narrow — the Dow slipped 0.40% to 525.8 and the Russell 2000 dropped 0.53% to 296, marking a clean split between large-cap growth and the rest of the market.

The VIX fell 6.93% to 15.03, sitting just above the complacency threshold. That’s the market pricing in a soft landing despite a Fed that can’t agree on direction. Sub-15 would start flashing warning signs of over-positioning — for now, 15 reads as cautious optimism with one eye on next week’s CPI print.

Sector Winners & Losers

Energy led all sectors, with XLE gaining 3.49% to 55.08 as WTI crude pushed higher on renewed Iran-related supply fears. Technology followed at +2.87% (XLK to 185.8), turbo-charged by SK Hynix’s record-breaking Nasdaq debut and continued AI infrastructure demand pulling capital into semis and mega-cap tech.

The laggards told an equally clear story. Materials (XLB) dropped 2.15% to 50.89 — rising yields and a flat dollar weighing on rate-sensitive industrials. Healthcare (XLV) fell 1.77% to 160.8 and Industrials (XLI) shed 1.08% to 181.9. Financials (XLF, +0.16%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY, +0.10%) were essentially flat. The rotation message: this market is rewarding secular growth and commodity exposure, not broad cyclical recovery.

Rates, Commodities & the Dollar

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 2.10% on the week to 4.569%, and the 30-year rose 2.11% to 5.071%. That’s the bond market pricing in a Fed that’s in no hurry to cut — and potentially open to hiking. Higher long-end yields typically pressure equity valuations, but this week the growth trade overwhelmed the rate drag.

WTI crude surged 4.11% to $71.51 as renewed US-Iran tensions revived supply disruption fears. Copper gained 2.79% to $6.285 — a constructive read on global industrial demand. Gold edged up 0.39% to $4,129, holding near highs but not spiking, which suggests hedging demand without outright panic. The DXY was flat at 101 (+0.10%), offering no headwind or tailwind to risk assets.

What Drove the Week

Three things set the tone. First, the Fed minutes from the June meeting landed Wednesday and revealed an unusually deep split: half of the 18 projection-submitting officials backed at least one rate hike by year-end, while the other half favoured holding or cutting. The committee flagged AI-driven investment and Iran-linked energy costs as upside inflation risks, but acknowledged a softening labour market after June’s 57,000 payroll miss. Markets initially sold off on the hawkish read, then recovered as traders concluded the division itself means inaction.

Second, SK Hynix’s $26.5 billion Nasdaq ADR listing on Friday — the largest foreign debut in US history — drew massive demand (7× oversubscribed) and closed its first session up 13%. It channelled fresh capital into the semiconductor complex and reinforced the AI-infrastructure narrative.

Third, Apple’s trade-secret lawsuit against OpenAI on Friday injected volatility into the AI space but didn’t derail tech momentum. The complaint alleges a systematic campaign to steal hardware IP — a story that will run for quarters.

Week Ahead

All eyes shift to Tuesday’s June CPI report. Consensus expects headline inflation to hold around 4% year-over-year, with energy disinflation partially offset by sticky services. A hot print re-arms the hawks and likely sends the 10-year above 4.6%; a cool print could extend this tech-led rally toward Nasdaq 100 resistance near 740. With the Fed split 50/50, a single data point carries outsized weight — the kind of asymmetric setup Luna3 readers should be positioned for heading into the print.

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