Now I have all the key catalysts confirmed. Let me write the post.

The setup into Jul 13–Jul 17, 2026

Asia Pacific heads into the new week sharply divided. Hong Kong and Singapore led the region higher — the Hang Seng closed at 24,175.1, up 3.5% on the week, while the Straits Times Index hit 5,469.3, up 4.3%. Chinese tech was the engine: Alibaba (9988.HK) surged 17.1%, Xiaomi (1810.HK) gained 12.5%, and Tencent (0700.HK) added 6.7%. Singapore bank heavyweights UOB (U11.SI, +10.3%) and OCBS (O39.SI, +8.4%) rode the same wave.

The other side of the ledger was brutal. KOSPI cratered 7.6% to 7,475.9 as semiconductor names got hammered — SK Hynix (000660.KS) fell 10.1%, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) dropped 7.9%, and LG Energy Solution (006400.KS) lost 7.2%. Taiwan Weighted shed 3.0% to 45,354.6 with Delta Electronics (2308.TW) down 9.4%. The Nikkei slipped 1.7% to 68,557.7. The ASX 200 edged lower to 8,806.0 (-0.4%), dragged by miners — Mineral Resources (MIN.AX, -8.3%) and Northern Star (NST.AX, -7.6%).

Jul 13–Jul 17, 2026 — the calendar

Sunday/Monday, Jul 13: India’s June CPI print lands, with consensus at 4.3% Y/Y (up from 3.93% in May). The RBI already held its repo rate at 5.25% on Jul 10 with a neutral stance — a hotter-than-expected read would harden the board’s resolve to stay put and weigh on rate-sensitive sectors of the Nifty 50, which closed the week at 24,206.9.

Tuesday, Jul 14: Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry releases advance Q2 GDP estimates at 8:00am SGT. After the Straits Times Index’s 4.3% rally to a 5,469.3 close, the print will test whether the banking-and-trade economy is keeping pace with share prices. China’s June trade data (exports and imports) also drops — the read on U.S.-bound shipments will gauge how much front-loading is still running through the pipeline.

Wednesday, Jul 15: The heavyweight day. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases Q2 GDP alongside June industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and the urban unemployment rate. Q1 GDP came in at 5.0% Y/Y. May industrial production accelerated to 4.5% Y/Y, beating forecasts, but retail sales remain soft — June retail is expected around -1% Y/Y. These numbers will determine whether the Hang Seng’s 3.5% weekly gain was justified or premature. The Shanghai Composite, which actually fell 1.2% to 3,996.2 despite the Hong Kong rally, is the domestic sentiment barometer to watch.

Thursday, Jul 16: The Bank of Korea announces its rate decision. Markets price a 69% probability of a 25bp hike to 2.75%, which would be the first increase in this cycle. Governor Shin Hyun-song has signalled rates need to rise, and the May vote showed two dissenters already pushing for a hike. A hold would surprise — and probably spark a relief rally in the KOSPI after last week’s 7.6% wipeout. A hike with hawkish forward guidance would pressure Korean equities further, particularly the rate-sensitive small-cap segment. China also reports Q2 value added by industry.

Friday, Jul 17: No tier-one scheduled releases for the region. Markets will digest the week’s data flow and position into the following week. Samsung Electronics’ full Q2 financials are due Jul 30 and SK Hynix reports Jul 29 — forward guidance expectations will already be getting priced through the back half of this week.

Levels and instruments to watch

The Hang Seng at 24,175.1 is the momentum gauge. A China GDP beat above 5% Y/Y could push it toward the 25,000 handle; a miss would test last week’s breakout. The Shanghai Composite sitting at 3,996.2 — just under the 4,000 round number — makes that level a clean sentiment trigger. A close above 4,000 after the data dump on Wednesday would confirm domestic participation in the rally.

KOSPI at 7,475.9 is the stress point. Samsung and SK Hynix now make up roughly half the index weight, so the BoK decision on Thursday interacts directly with the semiconductor rout. If the BoK hikes and Samsung’s preliminary earnings (already reported Jul 7 — record 89.4 trillion KRW operating profit) fail to stabilise sentiment, the 7,000 level comes into play as the next structural floor.

The Nikkei at 68,557.7 is between catalysts — the BoJ doesn’t meet until Jul 30-31. Yen direction and U.S. rate expectations will drive it by default. The ASX 200 at 8,806.0 is range-bound; Australia’s June employment data doesn’t land until Jul 23, so the index trades on commodity flows and China data spillover.

The bias

The setup is bifurcated. Greater China and ASEAN carry momentum — Hong Kong tech is bid, Singapore banks are running, and the data calendar (China GDP, trade, activity) gives bulls a chance to confirm. Korea and Taiwan carry the opposite read: semiconductor selling pressure, an imminent rate hike, and two of the region’s largest index weights (Samsung, SK Hynix) still digesting a week that erased hundreds of billions in market cap.

Net read: range-bound with a tilt toward risk-on IF China GDP prints above 5% Y/Y and the BoK delivers a dovish hike (raise but signal a pause). The one thing that flips this defensive is a China GDP miss below 4.5% combined with weak retail sales — that would undercut the Hong Kong rally, pull Singapore banks lower on trade-flow expectations, and leave the region with no anchor bid heading into late July earnings season.