Here’s the US Market Preview post for Monday, July 13, 2026:

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Previous Session Close

Friday’s session split cleanly along the large-cap/small-cap fault line. The S&P 500 gained 0.43% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.31%, but the Russell 2000 slipped 0.42% — a divergence that typically reflects money rotating toward quality and away from rate-sensitive balance sheets. The Dow edged up 0.30%.

The VIX tells the more interesting story. It jumped 8.45% to 16.3 even as the S&P closed green — a combination that usually means hedging demand is building underneath a calm surface. Not panic territory, but the options market is no longer asleep.

Materials led at +1.25%, likely front-running the commodity bid that accelerated overnight. Healthcare was the clear drag at -0.82%. Energy gained 0.47%, a move that looks modest compared to what crude did after the bell.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are pointing to a softer open across the board, with the Nasdaq taking the hardest hit at -0.90%. S&P futures are down 0.30%, Russell futures off 0.20%, and Dow futures barely red at -0.08%. The Nasdaq weakness lines up with headlines flagging geopolitical exposure for the semiconductor supply chain — SK Hynix’s leverage got called out explicitly after its ADR debut, and ASML kicks off European tech earnings this week.

The Dow’s relative resilience suggests defensive positioning. Money is moving away from high-beta growth and toward names with less geopolitical surface area.

Commodity & FX Setup

Oil is the overnight story. WTI surged 3.44% to $73.87 after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with follow-on headlines citing fresh military strikes threatening shipments. That’s a direct inflation input — energy stocks should open with a bid, but the read-through to consumer prices and Fed expectations is the second-order risk.

Gold dropping 0.90% to $4,067 alongside silver’s 1.60% decline is counterintuitive during a geopolitical flare-up. It suggests the market is pricing this as an oil-specific supply shock rather than a broad flight to safety. Copper gained 0.66%, which keeps the growth-proxy signal intact.

The dollar index is flat at 100.9. USD/JPY dipped 0.18% to 162.1. No conviction trade in FX — the market is waiting for more information on Hormuz before repositioning currency hedges.

Catalyst Watch

Bank earnings. Citigroup headlines the financial sector’s reporting window this week. Friday’s +0.31% move in XLF was a positioning tell — the 10-year yield at 4.569% (up 0.66%) and the 30-year at 5.071% give banks a constructive net interest margin backdrop, but the yield curve shape matters more than direction.

Semiconductor supply chain. TSMC posted stronger-than-expected June revenue, setting the tone ahead of Thursday’s full earnings report. But the geopolitical overlay is heavy — SK Hynix exposure and ASML’s European earnings create a two-front narrative for chip names. Nasdaq futures pricing reflects this tension.

Hormuz escalation. The closure declaration and military strike headlines will dominate pre-market newsflow. Watch crude’s trajectory between now and the open — if WTI pushes past $75, the energy trade broadens and the inflation trade re-enters the conversation.

Bottom Line

The bias leans defensive going into Monday’s open. Nasdaq futures down nearly 1% with a geopolitical shock underneath gives traders reason to lighten growth exposure early. The level to watch is whether S&P futures hold above 7,550 — a break below would suggest the Hormuz risk is being repriced from “oil event” to “macro event.” The single biggest driver today is crude: if oil stays bid, energy leads and everything else pays the inflation tax. Luna3 will be tracking how the VIX responds at the open — Friday’s 8.45% jump into a green close was the early warning.

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