Two shocks arrived in the same 12-hour window: Trump’s proposal to charge a 20% toll on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh Iran blockade, then a US Monday session that saw crude up almost 9% while AI names got hit twice — once on Iran risk-off, again on renewed China supply-chain worry. Now the same tape has to absorb the June CPI print at 8:30am ET. The bond market is holding its Fed-cut view. The oil channel is quietly disagreeing. One of them will be repriced by lunch.

What moved overnight

Crude did the loudest talking. WTI closed near $77.69, up about 8.79%, its biggest single-session jump in three months, per MarketWatch, with USO tracking a matching +8.60%. Brent has since ticked above $82. That flowed straight into the risk-off leg: the Dow gave back about 100 points, the S&P 500 finished at 7,515, and the Nasdaq closed at 25,873 as semiconductor names underperformed. Oracle sank 5.77%, AppLovin dropped 12.18%, and the SK Hynix ADR proxy printed -11.01% on renewed HBM supply worry — the AI supply chain’s most crowded bottleneck getting a geopolitical stress test in real time.

Rates barely moved: 10Y yields sat at 4.61%, 30Y at 5.10%. That’s the tell — the bond market is still trading the Fed-cut path, not an oil-shock inflation impulse. VIX at 17.16 was elevated but hardly panicked. Bitcoin fell 3.45% through $62,000, a clean risk-off signal from the crypto leg. Gold was firmer alongside the dollar.

Trending in markets right now

The dominant thread in social conversations is the Iran channel — not the geopolitics itself, which the tape has now digested twice this year, but the specific mechanics of the Hormuz toll. Around a fifth of global seaborne oil transits that strait. A 20% cargo levy on top of a physical blockade is a compound shock: supply squeeze plus a friction cost that lands on refiners regardless of whether tankers actually stop moving. Google search interest is surging on “Strait of Hormuz” and “oil price today,” and outlets from Reuters to the UN maritime agency are pushing back on the toll’s legality.

The second thread, quieter but louder in institutional chatter, is Meta expanding its Louisiana data center to 5 gigawatts with cumulative capex now above $50 billion, per Reuters. That reads as a bid under the AI-capex trade even as the semis got hit on the tape — a reminder that hyperscaler capex is a multi-year commitment that doesn’t flinch on a single Iran headline. Retail chatter is fixated on the split screen: AI stocks selling off on the Iran headline while the very hyperscalers whose spending drives them just committed another $10 billion. Both can be true. Only one is priced today.

For the price recap in tape order, see Movers; for the live trending list see Trending.

Three things to watch today

June CPI at 8:30am ET. The setup is core versus headline: headline is likely dragged lower by the pre-shock energy complex, but a core reading that surprises to the upside collides directly with the oil channel and forces the Fed-cut path to re-price — that’s the scenario where 10Y yields need to leave 4.61% behind. A soft print with headline disinflation intact lets the bond market keep its story.

Fed Governor Waller’s follow-through. Waller warned overnight that the Fed shouldn’t “fight the last war” on inflation but flagged hikes are still possible, per CNBC. Watch whether the post-CPI Fedspeak leans on the transitory-oil argument or the second-round-effects argument. That framing is what actually moves the September dot.

Front-month WTI through $82. A daily close above $82 keeps the inflation-shock trade alive into Wednesday. A rejection back below $76 says the market thinks Hormuz gets negotiated down in days, not months — and the equity re-rating gets unwound just as fast.

Bottom line

This is a rare setup — a supply-side inflation shock landing on the same tape as a demand-side disinflation print, with the Fed-cut path still holding in yields. That’s a lot of moving parts pointing at 8:30am ET. Watch the two-year, not the ten. The front end is where the Fed-cut view lives; if 2Y yields grind higher on a hot CPI with oil at $82, that’s the marginal cut getting priced out in real time. The equity recovery, if there is one, needs a soft print AND a Hormuz de-escalation headline. One without the other is a bear-market bounce, not a bottom.