Asian Session Summary

The dollar drifted lower overnight as commodity currencies caught a bid on surging crude prices. WTI cleared $80 for the first time in weeks after the US launched strikes in the Middle East and Iran disrupted shipping lanes — Brent jumped over 3%. That backdrop handed the Canadian dollar its best session in days, dragging USD/CAD below 1.41. The kiwi outperformed across the board, with NZD/JPY printing close to +1% as carry appetite held firm despite lingering JPY intervention headlines. The Swiss franc was the clear underperformer, USD/CHF rallying half a percent as safe-haven demand rotated into gold (+0.83%) rather than the franc. DXY sits at 101.2, marginally softer, with no conviction in either direction ahead of European liquidity.

Key Pairs for London

USD/CAD — 1.4105
Down 41 pips on the session and trading near the low at 1.4098. The driver is straightforward: crude’s geopolitical premium. With WTI above $80 and Brent approaching $86, the loonie is getting pulled lower mechanically. A clean break below 1.4098 opens the door toward the 1.4050 handle. Resistance sits at the session high of 1.4155. Watch for follow-through if oil holds gains into European hours — energy desks in London will re-price this move.

NZD/USD — 0.5797
The session’s outperformer among the G10 smalls, up 67 pips. The move looks carry-driven rather than NZ-specific — NZD/JPY at 94.08 tells the story. The pair is pressing into the session high at 0.5799 and a push through 0.58 would be the first time above that round number in recent sessions. Support is the overnight low at 0.5751. Thin liquidity in NZD during London could mean a fade or a sharp extension — no middle ground.

USD/CHF — 0.8135
Up half a percent and the strongest USD cross today. The franc is underperforming despite a risk environment that would normally support it — gold is bid, oil is spiking on geopolitics, yet CHF is selling. That divergence suggests positioning unwind rather than macro flow. The session high at 0.8152 is the immediate resistance. A rejection back below 0.8132 would suggest the move is exhausted.

GBP/USD — 1.3360
Cable is 20 pips off the highs and drifting. The headline flagging JPY intervention risk with GBP/JPY below 217 is worth noting — if Tokyo steps in, sterling crosses will feel it. The 1.3343 session low is the first support. Any UK data surprise in the London morning could set the tone, but absent that, cable looks range-bound between 1.334 and 1.337.

EUR/USD — 1.1401
Flatlined in a 19-pip range. The pair is sitting right at the session high, which means London either pushes it through or fades it. MUFG’s note on Fed reaction to Waller comments suggests the market is still digesting the latest Fed rhetoric. A break above 1.1401 targets 1.1420-30. Support is the Asian low at 1.1382.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday mid-month in London typically brings UK labour market data — average earnings and claimant count would be the usual releases. Any upside surprise in wages would give GBP a jolt and could push EUR/GBP back below 0.8520. Beyond scheduled data, the bigger driver today is likely to be oil-related headline flow. The geopolitical premium in crude is fresh and London energy desks will be the first major liquidity centre to fully price the overnight developments. ECB speakers are possible mid-week but nothing specific flags from the current headline tape.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both look neutral-to-slightly-bid — the dollar lacks momentum with DXY unable to hold 101.3, and the overnight commodity rally hasn’t triggered a classic risk-off USD bid. The pairs to watch for directional conviction are the commodity bloc: USD/CAD has the cleanest trend today and a London continuation below 1.41 would confirm that oil is driving FX, not just energy futures. AUD/USD and NZD/USD should track copper (+2.23%) if base metals hold. The dollar’s tone is soft but not broken — it needs a catalyst, and Waller follow-up or a rates repricing could provide one.

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