Asian Session Summary

The dollar sold off broadly through Asia after yesterday’s softer-than-expected US CPI print continued to work through positioning. DXY dropped below 101 and is sitting at 100.9, down 0.38% on the session. The move was clean and orderly — no single pair drove it, but the commodity bloc led the charge. AUD/USD rallied over 1% to flirt with the 0.7000 handle, aided by a copper bid (+0.51%) and crude strength (WTI +1.17%, Brent +1.27%). The Scandies joined the party with NOK gaining 0.74% and SEK up 0.51% against the greenback. Gold pulled back 0.76% despite the weaker dollar — a divergence worth watching, likely reflecting the oil-driven rates repricing rather than a genuine risk-off signal.

Key Pairs for London

AUD/USD — 0.6989
The standout mover, up 1.02% and pressing the 0.7000 psychological level that has capped rallies multiple times this year. The combination of soft US CPI, firm copper, and rising crude is the cleanest tailwind this pair has had in weeks. Session high sits at 0.6995 — a London-hours print above 0.7000 opens the door for momentum stops. Support on any pullback at 0.6975 (today’s low).

EUR/USD — 1.1427
Up 0.38% and holding above 1.1420 after pushing as high as 1.1447 in Asia. The pair snapped its recent losing streak and the CPI-driven dollar weakness gives bulls a clean setup. Resistance is the session high at 1.1447 — a break there targets the 1.1460-1.1480 zone. Support at 1.1421 (today’s low). EUR/GBP is flat (-0.04%), so the euro is tracking dollar weakness rather than running on its own fundamentals.

USD/CAD — 1.4051
Down 0.70% and the sharpest G10 move against the dollar after AUD and NZD. Oil strength is doing the heavy lifting — WTI above $80 and Brent above $85 both underpin the loonie. Session low at 1.4036 is the level to watch; a break below puts 1.4000 in play. Headlines flagging BoC policy expectations add a layer — any hawkish BoC commentary would compound the move.

GBP/USD — 1.3403
Cable is up 0.41%, tracking the broad USD sell-off, with a session high of 1.3421. Sterling is slightly outperforming the euro (EUR/GBP dipped to 0.8516 intraday) which suggests some GBP-specific demand rather than pure anti-dollar flow. UOB’s note flagging a neutral range view means the market isn’t positioned for a breakout — which is exactly when they tend to happen. Resistance at 1.3421, then 1.3450.

USD/CHF — 0.8097
Down 0.62% and sitting just above the 0.8080 session low. The franc is catching a bid from both USD weakness and its safe-haven correlation with yen — USD/JPY is also lower (-0.10%). A London push below 0.8080 would be the cleanest technical break of the session.

London Calendar Watch

Wednesday London sessions typically carry mid-week data risk. UK CPI for June would be the headliner if scheduled today — any upside surprise would give GBP/USD an independent bid beyond dollar weakness. ECB speakers are common mid-week; with EUR/USD already elevated, any pushback on rate cut expectations could add fuel. Oil traders will be watching for US-Iran tension headlines flagged in overnight wires — crude above $80 WTI has direct read-through to CAD and NOK positioning. The soft US CPI narrative will keep filtering through European rates markets as desks reprice September Fed odds.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD bias is risk-on into London — the CPI-driven dollar unwind has momentum and Asia didn’t fade it, which typically means European desks will lean into the same direction in early trade. Commodity-linked pairs (AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK) have the strongest follow-through potential given crude and copper are both bid — AUD/USD through 0.7000 would be the session’s marquee event. DXY below 101 with no bounce attempt in Asia tells you the market wants to sell dollars; the burden of proof is on the bulls to reclaim that level.

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