Where Europe Closed Last Session

Friday’s session left Europe split between defensive winners and broad-based selling. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.27% to 10,600, supported by its heavy weighting toward energy and mining — sectors that caught a bid as oil prices firmed. The SMI added 0.54% to 14,344, with Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis doing what Swiss defensives do when risk appetite fades elsewhere.

The rest of the continent had a harder day. The DAX slipped 0.34% to 24,831, the CAC 40 dropped 0.47% to 8,339, and the Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.84% to 6,231. Southern Europe took the worst of it: the FTSE MIB lost 0.94% to 51,882, and the IBEX 35 gave back 0.45% to 19,217. The AEX in Amsterdam matched Milan’s decline at -0.94%, dragged lower by ASML and other tech-adjacent names. The OMX Copenhagen 25 dipped 0.23% to 1,898.

The pattern was clear — anything with a growth or cyclical lean sold off, while commodity exposure and defensive quality held up. That divergence is likely to carry into Monday’s open given what happened in New York overnight.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street closed Friday firmly in the red. The S&P 500 dropped 1.01% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.40%, with tech bearing the brunt — the XLK sector ETF lost 1.09%. The VIX jumped 12.19% to 18.8, not yet above 20 but climbing fast enough to signal that options desks are repricing risk heading into the week.

The selling was broad. Financials shed 0.86%, materials dropped 0.71%, and even the Russell 2000 gave back 0.52%. The lone green pocket was energy, up 1.16%, riding the oil move tied to escalating US-Iran tensions.

For Europe, that Nasdaq weakness puts direct pressure on ASML, SAP, and Infineon at the DAX open. The financials drag could weigh on BNP Paribas and UniCredit. But energy outperformance overnight should give Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies a tailwind right from the bell.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil is the headline here. WTI crude rose 1.56% to $83.80 on reports of intensifying US-Iran hostilities — a direct catalyst for Shell, BP, and Equinor when London opens. Copper added 0.96%, which could support miners like Glencore and Anglo American on the FTSE. Gold was essentially flat at $4,010, down just 0.05%, holding its safe-haven bid without extending.

On the FX side, AUD/USD slipped 0.11% to 0.699, reflecting the mild risk-off tone. USD/JPY was flat at 162. For European exporters, the key question is where EUR/USD sits at the Monday open — any dollar strength from the geopolitical bid would benefit euro-denominated exporters like LVMH, Airbus, and Siemens by making their goods cheaper in dollar terms. The SMI’s Friday strength suggests CHF was already absorbing some safe-haven flow.

What to Watch Today

• Geopolitical risk premium in energy: US-Iran tension headlines drove oil higher and lifted energy names on both sides of the Atlantic Friday. If weekend developments escalate further, expect Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies to gap higher at the open — but watch for a reversal if diplomatic language softens.
• Tech bleed-through from Nasdaq: The Nasdaq’s 1.40% drop and the “Magnificent Seven” fatigue narrative will hit European tech at the open. ASML, SAP, and Infineon are the names most exposed. The AEX’s 0.94% Friday loss already priced some of this — Monday’s question is whether it extends.
• No major ECB or BoE speakers scheduled Monday, which leaves price action driven by the US carry-over and any geopolitical developments. The thin Monday calendar means early moves could stick.
• FTSE 100 relative strength: London outperformed the continent on Friday and has the commodity mix to do it again if oil holds above $83. Watch whether the FTSE can hold 10,600 or whether the broader European weakness pulls it back down.

Bottom Line

Europe opens Monday on the back foot after a weak US close and rising geopolitical uncertainty around US-Iran tensions. The setup favors a defensive lean — energy names, Swiss quality, and UK commodity exposure look better positioned than Eurozone growth and tech. At Luna3, we’re watching whether the VIX’s move toward 19 accelerates or stabilizes — that will set the tone for how deep the risk-off trade runs this week.

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