Asian Session Summary

The Monday Asia session opened with mild dollar selling and a clear bid in commodity-linked currencies. DXY slipped 0.08% to 100.70, holding the 100.50 floor but offering no bounce. The standout flow was into the Swiss franc — USD/CHF dropped to 0.8061 lows as the safe-haven currency caught a bid alongside rising geopolitical risk. Brent crude climbed 1.2% on reports of intensifying US-Iran hostilities, dragging the commodity bloc higher. NZD/USD led the G10 with a 0.31% gain, pushing through 0.5860. AUD/USD followed but with less conviction, nudging above 0.7000. USD/JPY held a tight range around 162.35, with UOB flagging losses limited near 162.75. Copper’s 1.7% rally added to the pro-risk undertone, even as gold flatlined around $4,023.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1447
Up a marginal 0.02% on the session, sitting just below the Asian high of 1.1452. That level marks the near-term gate — a clean break opens the path toward 1.1480-1.1500. Downside is anchored at the session low of 1.1419. Headlines note euro gains trimmed as sterling firmed on UK political developments around Andy Burnham’s leadership nomination, so EUR/GBP flows could weigh on the single currency early in London.

USD/CHF — 0.8064
The franc is the session’s strongest G10 currency by some distance. USD/CHF tagged 0.8061 — the 0.8050 handle is the next magnet if dollar weakness persists. The move looks driven by classic safe-haven rotation: oil higher on Iran, equities under pressure from AI valuations and geopolitics per Deutsche Bank commentary. Session high at 0.8091 is first resistance on any reversal.

NZD/USD — 0.5860
The kiwi posted the largest G10 percentage gain, rallying 31 pips from a 0.5828 low to trade near session highs at 0.5864. Copper’s 1.7% surge is the proximate driver — New Zealand’s dairy-commodity exposure correlates loosely, but broad risk appetite in base metals lifts the antipodeans. The 0.5865 high needs clearing for follow-through; a fade targets 0.5830.

GBP/USD — 1.3476
Cable is fractionally softer despite sterling catching a bid on crosses (EUR/GBP -0.002%). The pair is sandwiched between the session high of 1.3480 and low of 1.3439. The 1.3480 level has capped twice — London needs to decide whether to break it or rotate back toward 1.3440. The Andy Burnham headline may inject some early volatility around UK political risk pricing.

USD/NOK — 9.6375
Norwegian krone up 0.28% against the dollar, directly tracking Brent’s 1.2% rally. The pair dropped from 9.7131 to 9.6152 intraday — a wide 98-pip range that signals genuine flow, not just noise. If Brent holds above $89, expect USD/NOK to probe below 9.6150 in European hours. Reversal risk sits at 9.6700.

London Calendar Watch

Monday’s European calendar is typically light on tier-one data, but several items are worth monitoring. Any ECB speaker commentary would land during European morning hours — with EUR/CHF already under pressure, hawkish or dovish lean from Governing Council members could amplify the move. UK political headlines around the Burnham nomination may generate sterling volatility through the morning. The broader backdrop of US-Iran tensions means oil headlines will drive NOK and CAD flows in real time — watch for any escalation reports hitting wires during the London morning.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is mildly constructive above 1.1420 — the pair needs to clear 1.1452 to attract fresh buyers, but the soft DXY undertone supports dips. GBP/USD is neutral-to-positive, though the 1.3480 cap needs breaking before longs get comfortable. Commodity-linked currencies have tailwinds: Brent above $89 keeps NOK and CAD bid, while copper’s rally supports AUD and NZD for London follow-through. The dollar’s tone is defensive — DXY is clinging to 100.50 support, and a break below would accelerate the broad USD fade that Asian flows have already started.

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