Previous Session Close

Monday’s session closed with a split tape. The Nasdaq 100 eked out a +0.10% gain while everything else sold off — the S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, the Dow dropped 0.55%, and the Russell 2000 lagged at -0.59%. Small caps taking the hardest hit while mega-cap tech held green tells you exactly where the conviction sits right now.

The VIX fell nearly 5% to 17.72 — comfortably below the 20 fear threshold but not low enough to call the tape complacent. It’s a “watch and wait” reading. Sector-wise, Energy led at +0.45% on the back of steady oil demand, while Healthcare was the session’s worst performer at -1.14%, followed by Materials at -0.99%. Tech barely held positive at +0.07%, keeping the Nasdaq above water.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are painting a different picture overnight. Nasdaq futures lead the charge at +1.24%, with S&P futures up 0.42%, Dow +0.31%, and Russell +0.51%. The broad green across all four contracts — including small caps recovering after Monday’s lag — suggests more than just a tech bid. This looks like a positioning move ahead of heavyweight earnings later this week, with buyers willing to step in at these levels rather than wait for prints.

Commodity & FX Setup

The metals complex is running hard. Copper is up 3.59% — the strongest overnight signal here, and a classic growth-proxy bid that favors Materials and Industrials despite Monday’s weakness in both sectors. Silver is ripping at +4.14%, gold is up 1.30% to $4,062 with headlines flagging renewed Chinese buying on the dip, and oil is firmer at +0.49% to $83.64.

The DXY is essentially flat at 101, down just 0.02%. A stable-to-weak dollar alongside surging commodity prices is a textbook reflation setup — bullish for miners, energy producers, and emerging-market-exposed multinationals. Rising Treasury yields (10Y at 4.598%, up 1.26%; 30Y breaching 5.118%) add a wrinkle: the bond market is repricing growth expectations higher, which can pressure rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and REITs.

Catalyst Watch

Alphabet’s Q2 earnings report is the marquee event. Headlines frame it as “the latest test of the AI trade” — investors want proof that AI spending is translating into revenue, not just capex. A strong print lifts the entire mega-cap complex; a miss could unwind the Nasdaq futures bid fast.

Tesla’s Q2 preview is drawing attention after the stock’s recent jump in sales, but the Street is focused on the cash burn picture as Optimus and Robotaxi bets scale. Charles Schwab earnings are also due, alongside Interactive Brokers — a read-through on retail brokerage activity and net interest income.

Adobe catches a downgrade to underweight from Morgan Stanley on AI disruption fears, which could weigh on software names early.

Bottom Line

The setup leans risk-on heading into Tuesday’s open. Futures are green across the board, metals are surging on a reflation bid, and the VIX at 17.72 isn’t flashing caution. The session will hinge on Alphabet’s earnings — if the AI trade gets validated, the Nasdaq’s overnight +1.24% futures gain has room to extend. That’s the one number Luna3 readers should track into the close.

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