Asian Session Summary

The dollar index drifted sideways through Asia, hovering at 101.1 with a negligible 0.05% dip that tells you almost nothing about the cross-currents underneath. The real story was commodity repricing: Brent crude ripped 4% higher and WTI added 3.4%, dragging gold up over 1% to $4,115 as geopolitical risk around Iran pushed energy markets into bid. That oil spike created immediate winners and losers across G10 — NOK rallied hard against the dollar while the Kiwi crumbled nearly 60 pips despite hawkish RBNZ positioning. Sterling was the other notable casualty, sliding 0.36% after Commerzbank flagged fiscal risks clouding the UK outlook. JPY continued to weaken, with USD/JPY grinding above 162.90 in a session that punished low-yielders and rewarded commodity exposure.

Key Pairs for London

GBP/USD — 1.3383
Cable is the cleanest short setup going into London. Down 0.36% on the session with the Commerzbank fiscal-risk note adding fundamental weight to the move. The pair printed a low at 1.3370, which becomes the immediate level to watch — a break opens the door toward 1.3340. Resistance sits at the session high of 1.3394. EUR/GBP pushing above 0.8525 confirms the pound is underperforming broadly, not just against the dollar.

NZD/USD — 0.5819
The session’s worst performer, down nearly 60 pips despite the RBNZ maintaining a hawkish stance. Headlines point to Iran-related risk repricing overwhelming rate support — classic risk-off NZD selling. The pair is barely holding above its session low at 0.5817. NZD/JPY dropping 0.34% while AUD/JPY held flat tells you the Antipodean underperformance is NZD-specific, not a broad risk-off flush. A break below 0.5815 targets 0.5800.

USD/NOK — 9.6234
The Brent surge makes NOK the standout commodity-currency bid. USD/NOK is down 0.48%, trading near session lows of 9.6055 after rejecting 9.6357 on the topside. If oil holds its gains through the European morning, there’s room for another push toward 9.5900. The NOK-SEK spread is widening — USD/SEK up 0.33% while USD/NOK falls — which reflects the oil premium being priced cleanly into the Norwegian krone.

EUR/GBP — 0.8525
This cross captures the London session’s likely dominant theme: EUR resilience vs GBP softness. Up 0.32% with a session high at 0.8534. The BNY note flagging euro asset flows decoupling from the currency adds a structural angle — real-money EUR demand may be running hotter than spot suggests. Watch 0.8535 as the breakout trigger for a move toward 0.8560.

USD/JPY — 162.92
Yen weakness persists, with USD/JPY grinding higher through Asia despite the flat DXY. The pair is trading in a 162.66–163.23 range, which gives London a defined box to break. The move is consistent with a risk-tolerant backdrop where carry trades stay in favour. A push above 163.23 would open the 163.50 zone; support is the session low at 162.66.

London Calendar Watch

Wednesday’s London docket is light on tier-one data but not without catalysts. UK public sector borrowing figures are the domestic focus — given the Commerzbank fiscal-risk note circulating overnight, any overshoot could add pressure to sterling. ECB speakers may surface mid-morning; with EUR holding firm despite asset-flow decoupling headlines, any hawkish lean would reinforce the EUR/GBP bid. Oil traders will watch for any escalation in Iran-related headlines during the European morning, which would directly feed into NOK strength and broader commodity-FX flows.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks rangebound around 1.1410 — the euro isn’t leading but it’s not breaking either, and the asset-flow decoupling narrative gives dip-buyers a reason to stay engaged. GBP/USD leans defensive; fiscal headlines and the EUR/GBP grind higher both point to continued sterling underperformance, making cable fades toward 1.3394 the cleaner trade. The oil-linked pairs have follow-through potential — if Brent holds above $94, NOK can extend gains while the Kiwi stays vulnerable. The DXY at 101.1 is a non-event; the dollar’s mixed scorecard today says pair selection matters more than directional USD conviction.

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