Overnight Summary

The dollar sold off broadly overnight, pushing DXY down 0.53% to 100.8, but the real story was the divergence inside the commodity bloc. Oil exploded higher — WTI up 6.74% to $84.60, Brent up 7.67% to $90.54 — and that dragged CAD and NOK sharply stronger. Yet the Aussie dollar buckled, with AUD/USD dropping 0.47% and AUD crosses getting hammered. EUR/AUD surged 1.31%, the session’s biggest G10 move. Gold climbed 2.22% to $4,126, reinforcing the anti-dollar tone and putting a bid under safe-haven currencies. The Scandis outperformed, with USD/SEK falling nearly 1% and USD/NOK down 0.76%.

Key Pair Breakdown

EUR/AUD +1.31% to 1.6484 — The session’s standout. Euro strength met Aussie weakness head-on. AUD’s failure to catch a bid from the commodity complex, despite copper managing a small +0.39% gain, points to positioning or Asia-specific headwinds weighing on the currency. The cross is now pressing into the mid-1.64s.

GBP/AUD +1.0% to 1.9210 — Sterling rode the same AUD weakness. GBP/USD gained 0.57% to 1.3366 on its own merit, and the AUD leg amplified the cross move. The 1.92 handle is back in play.

USD/SEK -0.96% to 9.6276 — The krona was the session’s strongest G10 currency against the dollar. With oil ripping and European risk appetite firm, SEK benefited from both the euro-zone gravity pull and its own pro-cyclical tilt. The pair is threatening to break below 9.60.

EUR/USD +0.87% to 1.1468 — A clean break above 1.14 with the dollar under pressure across the board. The move was broad-based rather than euro-specific — DXY weakness lifted all boats — but the pair is now sitting at a level that will draw attention from both sides heading into the European morning.

AUD/JPY -0.81% to 113.50 — The cross captures both sides of the risk picture: AUD selling and mild yen firmness. USD/JPY only dipped 0.26% to 163.35, so the AUD leg did most of the work here. The 113 handle is the next obvious support.

USD/NOK -0.76% to 9.5862 — Norway’s oil-linked krone was always going to move on a 6-7% crude surge. The pair is now trading below 9.60 and the momentum is clearly with NOK as long as oil holds these gains.

USD/CHF -0.72% to 0.8134 — The franc gained on both dollar weakness and the safe-haven bid reflected in gold’s move. Sub-0.82 is the next downside target if the dollar keeps leaking.

USD/CAD -0.59% to 1.4041 — CAD strengthened on the oil surge but the move was surprisingly contained given WTI’s 6.7% jump. The pair is sitting right at the 1.40 figure, which will act as a magnet. A clean break below would open up further CAD strength.

GBP/USD +0.57% to 1.3366 — Cable rode the broad dollar selloff. The move was orderly, keeping pace with EUR/USD, and EUR/GBP barely moved (+0.23%), confirming this was a dollar story rather than a sterling one.

AUD/USD -0.47% to 0.6954 — The Aussie lost ground despite the commodity tailwinds. With copper only up 0.39% and iron ore absent from the bid, AUD was left exposed. The 0.6950 level is a thin floor — a break below opens 0.69.

NZD/USD +0.42% to 0.5794 — The kiwi managed a modest gain, diverging from its Antipodean neighbour. The AUD/NZD cross was under pressure as a result, with NZD outperforming on a relative basis.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens with AUD on the back foot. The overnight AUD weakness sets up a test of 0.6950 in AUD/USD and 113 in AUD/JPY early in the session. Any China data or equity weakness could accelerate the move. USD/JPY at 163.35 is drifting lower but slowly — Tokyo will be watching whether the yen can extend gains or whether the carry trade bid reasserts. The DXY slide to 100.8 is a headwind for dollar-long positioning across Asia, and if the oil move holds through the Asian morning, USD/CAD below 1.40 and further NOK strength will stay in focus for European pre-positioning. Gold at $4,126 adds to the anti-dollar backdrop.

Bottom Line

The overnight session was dollar-negative across the board, but the AUD’s failure to benefit from surging commodities makes it the currency to watch through Asia. Traders will be focused on whether AUD/USD can hold 0.6950 or whether the disconnect between oil strength and Aussie weakness deepens further into the Tokyo fix.

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