Asian Session Summary

The dollar found a bid through the Asian session, with DXY clawing back to the 101 handle (+0.25%) after a soft patch earlier in the week. The move was broad-based but shallow — EUR/USD gave back half a cent from session highs of 1.1478 to trade 1.1444, while USD/JPY barely moved, grinding sideways in a 54-pip range around 163.70. The real action sat in the commodity complex: Brent crude surged 1.76% past $92 on headlines that the US has resumed strikes in Iran, dragging WTI above $85. Gold pushed through $4,100 (+1.61%) and copper added 1.5%. Despite that commodity strength, the Aussie couldn’t catch a bid — AUD/USD slipped 0.30% to 0.6954, making it the weakest G10 performer. NOK was the standout winner, gaining 0.78% against the greenback on the oil tailwind.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1444
Up half a percent on the session but fading from the 1.1478 high. The pair is caught between broad euro demand (EUR crosses mostly higher) and a firming DXY. First support sits at today’s low of 1.1439 — a clean break opens the door toward the 1.1400 handle. Resistance is the session high at 1.1478. London flows tend to test the Asian range extremes early, so watch for a probe of either level in the first hour.

GBP/USD — 1.3342
Cable is bid but losing momentum, trading 40 bps off the session high of 1.3376. MUFG’s note flagging BoE hike pricing as supportive for sterling is the narrative backdrop. The 1.3300 round number is the near-term floor; topside, a close above 1.3376 would be the cleanest signal of follow-through. EUR/GBP is flat at 0.8575, suggesting the euro and pound are moving in tandem against the dollar rather than diverging.

USD/NOK — 9.6066
The biggest G10 mover today, down 0.78% as Brent’s surge feeds directly into NOK strength. The pair has already breached the session low at 9.5644 before bouncing. If crude holds above $92 into the European morning, USD/NOK could retest that low. The Scandies are the cleanest expression of the oil bid — USD/SEK is down 0.20% in sympathy but nowhere near NOK’s pace.

AUD/USD — 0.6954
Aussie is the puzzle — commodity prices ripping higher and AUD is selling off. The disconnect points to positioning or risk aversion ahead of US data. Today’s low at 0.6949 is the level to watch; a breach puts the 0.6900 round number in play. EUR/AUD at 1.6456 (+0.80%) is the cleanest read on AUD weakness — that cross has been one-way traffic all session.

USD/CHF — 0.8171
Swissy is bid despite what the headlines call “bright” KOF leading indicator data — the franc is retreating as USD catches a broader bid. The session high at 0.8175 is immediate resistance. A push through opens 0.8200 as the next round-number target. EUR/CHF at 0.9346 is barely moving, so this is a USD story, not a CHF story.

London Calendar Watch

Thursday London sessions typically bring mid-tier eurozone data and any residual ECB speaker flow from the week. With the Fed-driven yield spike pressuring equities (per Deutsche Bank’s note), expect fixed income desks to be active at the European open, which can spill into FX via EUR and CHF flows. The oil headline — US resuming strikes in Iran — will dominate commodity desks and could generate further NOK and CAD volatility if Brent extends above $92. Any US data previews or pre-positioning ahead of Friday releases may also drive USD flows in the back half of the London morning.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans mildly constructive above 1.1440 but needs to reclaim 1.1478 to confirm — the fading Asian bid suggests London could see a brief pullback before any resumption higher. GBP/USD has the cleaner setup with BoE rate support underpinning cable near 1.3300. The commodity-linked pairs are split: NOK should see follow-through if Brent holds above $92, but AUD’s refusal to rally with copper and gold signals underlying weakness that London sellers may exploit. The dollar’s tone is modestly firm — DXY back at 101 with a bullish bias per the technicals — but without a fresh catalyst, the move looks like consolidation rather than the start of a sustained bid.

Read next: FX Markets · How to Read the COT Report · How Institutional Order Flow Moves Price