Now I have verified catalysts. Let me write the post.

The setup into Aug 03–Aug 07, 2026

Asia Pacific heads into the first full week of August with broad-based momentum behind it. The Hang Seng led the region last week at 25,884.4, up 3.7% across five consecutive sessions after the Politburo pledged faster fiscal spending and a shift to moderately loose monetary policy. India’s Nifty 50 gained 2.6% to 24,383.6, and the ASX 200 added 2.3% to 8,976.8 after a cooler-than-expected June quarter CPI priced out an August RBA hike. The outliers were Northeast Asian tech: KOSPI fell 1.4% to 6,595.5, Taiwan Weighted dropped 1.2% to 43,119.8, and the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.4% to 64,362.0 — a rotation out of semiconductor names (Tokyo Electron 8035.T down 11.4%, Quanta 2382.TW down 11.1%) and into consumer and infrastructure plays.

Aug 03–Aug 07, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Aug 03. China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (July final, the rebranded Caixin series — same S&P Global methodology) drops at 11:45am AEST. After the NBS official PMI over the weekend, this is the private-sector cross-check on factory activity. The RBI’s three-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting begins in Mumbai. US ISM Manufacturing PMI (July) prints overnight — the read-across to Asian exporters is direct.

Wednesday Aug 05. The two headline events arrive on the same day. The RBI announces its rate decision at 2:30pm AEST, with 68 of 72 Reuters-polled economists expecting the repo rate held at 5.25%. The decision itself is largely priced; what matters is the forward guidance on stance — whether the committee signals a shift from neutral to accommodative would reprice rate-sensitive Indian financials like Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE.NS, up 12.7% last week). Also Wednesday: China’s RatingDog Services PMI (July) at 11:45am AEST — the services reading has been the swing factor in composite prints this year. New Zealand’s Q2 unemployment rate prints at 8:45am AEST; the prior reading was 5.3%, and the RBNZ’s own forecast of 5.4% puts the labour market at decade highs. The Bank of Japan releases minutes from its July 30–31 meeting at 9:50am AEST — not a rate decision (no BoJ meeting in August; next is September), but the minutes will be parsed for signals on further tightening after the June hike.

Thursday Aug 06. Australia’s June trade balance at 11:30am AEST. May printed a deficit of A$3,018M after a surplus the month before, driven by a 6.9% monthly export decline. A second consecutive deficit would pressure AUD and shift the macro read on Australia’s terms-of-trade trajectory heading into the RBA meeting the following week (Aug 10–11). The Bank of England also decides Thursday — any move on GBP crosses filters into AP FX.

Friday Aug 07. China’s July trade balance at 1:00pm AEST is the week’s final regional catalyst. June delivered a $125.6B surplus on 27% export growth and 36% import growth — both at record levels. The July print tests whether that was durable demand or front-loading ahead of tariff risk. Then overnight: US nonfarm payrolls (July) at 10:30pm AEST. This is the single biggest cross-market event of the week — it sets the tone for Asia Pacific on Monday Aug 10, which also happens to be the first day of the RBA’s August meeting.

Levels and instruments to watch

The Hang Seng at 25,884 is the bellwether. Three straight weeks of Politburo-driven inflows have pushed it into a zone where continuation depends on the RatingDog PMI prints and Friday’s trade data confirming the stimulus narrative. NetEase (9999.HK, +10.7% last week) and Tencent (0700.HK, +9.3%) are the momentum proxies — if China services PMI disappoints on Wednesday, these names give back fast.

The Nikkei at 64,362 is interesting for the divergence: consumer names rallied (Keyence 6861.T +13.0%, Sony 6758.T +11.1%, Nintendo 7974.T +10.2%) while semis sold off hard. The BoJ minutes Wednesday could widen that split if they lean hawkish — yen strength would punish exporters further while supporting domestic-demand plays.

The ASX 200 at 8,976.8 sits just below the psychological 9,000 level. Thursday’s trade balance is the swing: a return to surplus clears the path; a second deficit stalls the breakout attempt, especially with the RBA meeting three days later.

KOSPI at 6,595.5 and TWSE at 43,119.8 are the laggards. Samsung SDI (006400.KS, −7.2%) and the Taiwanese foundry/OSAT cluster (Quanta 2382.TW −11.1%, ASE 3711.TW −9.5%, Delta 2308.TW −8.1%) dragged both indices. A strong US ISM Manufacturing print Monday night could stabilise these names; a miss accelerates the rotation into China and India.

The bias

The bias is constructive but back-loaded with risk. China policy momentum, the post-CPI relief trade in Australia, and Indian financial-sector strength all favour risk-on positioning early in the week. The calendar builds toward Friday, where China trade data and US payrolls arrive within hours of each other — and the RBA meeting opens the following Monday.

The one thing that flips the read: a China trade surplus sharply below $100B paired with a hot US payrolls print. That combination would hit AP markets from both sides — weaker Chinese demand pulling down Hong Kong and commodity currencies, while a repricing of Fed rate expectations strengthens the dollar against every AP FX pair. Until Friday, the path of least resistance is higher for the indices that led last week. After Friday, it depends on the data.