Where Asia Closed Last Week

Thursday’s session across Asia-Pacific was dominated by two explosive moves. The KOSPI surged 17.91% to 6,595.45 — an extraordinary single-session rally that demands close attention at Monday’s open for follow-through or profit-taking. Taiwan’s TAIEX wasn’t far behind in relative terms, jumping 7.98% to 43,119.75. Both moves suggest a powerful rotation into semiconductor and tech-heavy markets that likely reflects positioning ahead of earnings or policy catalysts.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 4.03% to 64,362.02, a strong session in its own right but overshadowed by its neighbours. China’s Shenzhen Component gained 2.21% while the Shanghai Composite added a more modest 0.72% to 3,832.26 — onshore markets participating but not leading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng barely moved, edging up 0.10% to 25,884.43.

Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat at 8,976.80 (+0.10%), while Singapore’s Straits Times Index was the region’s only notable decliner, dropping 0.79% to 5,628.50. India’s Nifty 50 added 0.27% and New Zealand’s NZX 50 gained 0.29%. The story is clear: Northeast Asian tech markets led by a wide margin.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street closed Friday on a constructive note. The S&P 500 rose 0.70% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.00%, extending the week’s momentum. The VIX dropped 6.44% to 16 — well below the 20 threshold that signals stress — confirming a risk-on posture heading into the new week.

Under the surface, the picture was mixed. Energy stocks led via XLE (+1.00%), supported by positioning rather than crude prices. Technology (XLK) slipped 0.22% and Financials (XLF) dipped 0.11%, suggesting the broad gains were driven more by megacap index weight than sector breadth. Materials (XLB) dropped 2.34%, the session’s clear laggard. The Russell 2000 fell 0.48%, reinforcing that risk appetite is concentrated in large-caps rather than broad-based.

For Asia’s Monday open, the positive S&P and Nasdaq tone should provide a tailwind for tech-heavy boards like the KOSPI and TAIEX, though the small-cap weakness and narrow leadership are worth monitoring.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil’s sharp 4.16% decline to $81.20 is the standout commodity move. Headlines flagged a Trump shift on Iran policy, which appears to be repricing supply expectations. For Asia, cheaper crude is a net positive for import-heavy economies like Japan, South Korea, and India — potentially supporting Monday sentiment on the Nikkei and KOSPI.

Gold climbed 1.77% to $4,120, reflecting continued safe-haven demand even as equities rallied — a divergence worth tracking. Copper gained 1.70% to $6.55, a mild positive signal for ASX miners and China’s industrial complex.

In FX, USD/JPY fell 1.83% to 157, meaning a meaningfully stronger yen. That’s a headwind for Japanese exporters and could temper Nikkei upside at the open despite the bullish US session. AUD/USD firmed 0.33% to 0.705, a modest tailwind for the ASX but nothing dramatic.

What to Watch Today

• KOSPI and TAIEX follow-through: After gains of 17.9% and 8.0% respectively, Monday’s open is the critical test. Any gap-up risks attracting profit-taking; a flat-to-firm open would confirm the move has legs. Watch Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC ADR levels for pre-market direction.
• Yen strength vs. Nikkei momentum: The 1.83% drop in USD/JPY creates a tug-of-war for Japanese equities. Exporters like Toyota and Sony face FX headwinds, but broad risk-on sentiment may still push the Nikkei higher. The BoJ’s rate path remains the key variable.
• Oil collapse and energy importers: With WTI down over 4%, Asia’s oil-importing economies catch a break on input costs. Indian refiners and Korean petrochemical names could see a bid. Conversely, ASX energy names tied to crude may open soft.
• Earnings week setup: Headlines flag AMD, Eli Lilly, and other major US earnings this week. Guidance from AMD in particular will set the tone for semiconductor supply chain names across Asia — from TSMC’s foundry volumes to SK Hynix memory pricing.

Bottom Line

The setup for Monday’s Asia session leans risk-on. A calm VIX at 16, positive US closes, and falling oil prices provide a supportive backdrop — but the real action is whether last Thursday’s extraordinary KOSPI and TAIEX rallies find continuation or trigger a pullback. Luna3 is watching the yen closely: if USD/JPY stabilises around 157, the Nikkei can push higher alongside its regional peers. If the yen keeps strengthening, Japan may lag even as the rest of Asia rides the momentum.

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