Palantir’s Q2 numbers hit the tape Monday after the close and did not leave much room for interpretation. Revenue $1.94 billion against a $1.81 billion consensus. Earnings per share $0.41 against $0.33. Full-year guidance lifted to $8.15 billion, a 82% growth rate that big-cap software companies are not supposed to still be printing. US Commercial revenue, the segment the AI-adjacent bull case actually hangs on, rose 149% year-over-year to $764 million.

That is one half of today’s split screen. The other half lands after the close – SpaceX reports its first-ever quarter as a public company, two days before Thursday’s insider lockup expiration, from a stock that has already traded below its IPO price. Both are being called “AI-adjacent.” By tomorrow morning the market will have told us whether that label means anything.

What moved overnight

Broad risk-on. The S&P finished Monday at 7,600.50, up 1.48%. Nasdaq +2.13% to 25,913. Dow +1.32%. Russell +1.73% – the small-cap participation is the tell that this was not a two-stock index rally. The VIX bled another basis point to 15.86, now down 15% on the week. The ten-year yield eased to 4.69%, off five bps on the session.

The AI-infrastructure names carried the tape. CoreWeave finished up 19.5% at $85.76. Nebius +11.6% to $212.58. Oracle +9.2% and now up 18% on the week ahead of its own upcoming print. These are the compute-capacity providers – the picks-and-shovels layer that sells to the hyperscalers – not model-builders and not front-end applications. Palantir itself closed +2.1% into its print, and the after-hours reaction to the beat will be the first thing traders see this morning.

Outside AI: Boeing +8.0% after the FAA certified the 737 MAX 7. SoFi +10.5%. GameStop -12.3%. AstraZeneca -6.9%. WTI crude dropped 5.5% to $80.04 on Trump’s public pressure on Chevron and Exxon combined with reports of restarted US-Iran talks. Gold +1.5% to $4,111 – a fresh high.

Trending in markets right now

The dominant conversation online is the same split that showed up in Monday’s tape: the AI trade is not one trade anymore. Investors are debating whether CoreWeave and Nebius have “already run” or whether they are the cleanest expression of the hyperscaler capex cycle for the back half of 2026. Search interest is grinding higher on Oracle’s cloud narrative in the way early Nvidia queries grew through mid-2023 – not a spike, just steady daily accumulation.

SpaceX is being talked about in the opposite direction. Broken through its IPO price, chart-of-shame accounts already lining up screenshots, and the insider lockup expiring Thursday adds a supply overhang directly on top of the earnings print. Whatever number lands tonight gets framed as the referendum on whether “AI-adjacent” is a durable category or a rebranding of unprofitable growth.

Second thread is quieter but worth flagging: yield-curve confusion. The ten-year drifted back down Monday, the thirty-year followed, and Google search interest in bond-market coverage jumped over the weekend. Cross-check the live movers on /trending for how the AI-infra names are opening.

Three things to watch today

JOLTS at 10am ET. Job openings for June – the Fed’s preferred read on labor tightness. A print under 7.0 million reinforces the “softening on schedule” narrative and takes pressure off the front end of the curve. Above 7.4 million and the recent bond rally starts looking premature.

SpaceX earnings after the close. Options are pricing a large move both directions. The three things to watch inside the print: Starlink subscriber growth (the recurring-revenue story), gross margin on launch services (whether reusability is finally showing up in unit economics), and any comment on capex through 2027. Insider lockup expires Thursday – a soft print into supply is a specific setup.

Crude follow-through. WTI dropped 5.5% on Monday. Energy stocks did not fully price it in. If crude holds under $80 into US open, expect XLE to catch down. If Iran headlines snap it back, the reversal will be violent – and the recent AI-infra bid has been indirectly correlated to lower energy prices via lower input costs for data-centre power.

Bottom line

The market is priced as if this week is uneventful. VIX at 15.86 into a Palantir post-print reaction, a SpaceX maiden earnings tonight, a JOLTS release this morning, chip-and-memory earnings later in the week, and Friday jobs is not consensus caution – it is consensus complacency. That is a setup that either resolves through a benign week and a further melt-up, or through the first single bad print resetting positioning across the AI stack.

Watch what the picks-and-shovels layer does on the PLTR reaction. If CoreWeave, Nebius and Oracle hold Monday’s levels through the day, the infrastructure bid is intact regardless of what SpaceX does after 4:30pm ET. If they give back half of Monday’s move before SpaceX reports, the whole AI-infra rip is being told to justify itself all in one 24-hour window.