- KOSPI surged nearly 18% and TAIEX jumped 8% on Friday — the question is whether follow-through holds as both markets reopen after the weekend.
- US equities rallied hard overnight with Nasdaq up 2.1% and VIX sitting at 15.9, setting a risk-on tone for Asia's Tuesday open.
- Oil crashed nearly 6% while copper and gold both climbed — mixed commodity signals create divergent pressure across ASX miners and energy names.
Where Asia Closed Yesterday
Friday’s session across Asia-Pacific delivered moves that ranged from explosive to barely noticeable — and the gap between them tells the story heading into Tuesday.
South Korea’s KOSPI was the standout, surging 17.91% to 6,595.45 in a single session — an extraordinary move by any measure. Taiwan’s TAIEX wasn’t far behind in spirit, jumping 7.98% to 43,119.75. Both markets have been heavily tied to the semiconductor and AI hardware cycle, and Friday’s action suggests a sharp re-rating of that trade. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 4.03% to 64,362.02, adding to what has been a strong run for Japanese exporters benefiting from yen weakness.
China’s mainland indices split: Shenzhen Component gained 2.21% to 13,578.93, outpacing the Shanghai Composite’s 0.72% rise to 3,832.26. The Shenzhen-Shanghai divergence typically signals growth and tech names leading over state-owned heavyweights. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng barely moved, up just 0.10% to 25,884.43.
Australia’s ASX 200 also posted a marginal 0.10% gain to 8,976.80. Singapore’s Straits Times Index was the session’s notable decliner, falling 0.79% to 5,628.50. New Zealand’s NZX 50 closed Tuesday’s session up 0.55% at 13,774.21, already reflecting some of the overnight US optimism.
US Overnight Snapshot
Wall Street handed Asia a clean green baton. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.13%, powered by technology names — the XLK sector ETF gained 1.53%. Palantir climbed after earnings showed AI-driven revenue acceleration, while Microsoft’s stock extended a run not seen in 26 years. The Russell 2000 added 1.72%, confirming broad-based risk appetite rather than a narrow mega-cap rally.
The VIX dropped to 15.9, down 0.81% — comfortably below 20 and signaling that the options market sees no near-term stress. That low-vol backdrop tends to support carry trades and risk-seeking behavior across Asian markets. Financials (XLF +0.77%) and Materials (XLB +1.15%) joined the rally, while Energy (XLE -1.28%) lagged as oil cratered. For Asia, the strong Nasdaq print should support TAIEX and KOSPI tech names at the open, while the broad S&P strength gives the Nikkei and ASX tailwinds.
Commodity + FX Watch
The commodity picture is sharply split. Gold pushed to $4,110, up 1.43%, continuing its role as a parallel risk asset rather than a pure safe haven. Copper climbed 1.65% to $6.54, a positive signal for ASX base-metals miners like BHP and Rio Tinto, and broadly supportive for China’s industrial demand narrative.
The outlier is oil. WTI crude dropped 5.88% to $79.70 — a heavy single-session decline that will pressure energy-heavy names across the ASX and weigh on Petrochina and CNOOC in Hong Kong. That drop also filters into Singapore’s STI, which has meaningful energy and shipping exposure.
On FX, AUD/USD edged up 0.29% to 0.705, modestly supportive for Aussie equities. USD/JPY slipped 0.17% to 157, with the yen’s marginal strength unlikely to meaningfully dent Japanese exporter earnings at this level. A weaker dollar environment broadly favors Asian risk assets.
What to Watch Today
- KOSPI and TAIEX follow-through: Friday’s 18% and 8% surges demand the obvious question — does the momentum hold or do profit-takers step in? Early order-book depth and foreign-investor flow data will set the tone within the first 30 minutes.
- Oil’s 6% drop and energy sector fallout: Watch Woodside Energy on the ASX, and CNOOC and PetroChina in Hong Kong. A move this sharp in crude often takes two sessions to fully price into Asian energy names.
- AstraZeneca-BMS merger chatter: Overnight headlines flagged a potential cancer-drug mega-merger. AstraZeneca is dual-listed and trades actively in Hong Kong — any deal speculation could move healthcare names across HKEX.
- China tech vs. mainland policy read: Shenzhen outperforming Shanghai on Friday hints at growth-stock preference. If that rotation continues Tuesday, watch for ChiNext and STAR Market names to lead, particularly in semiconductors given the TAIEX sympathy signal.
Bottom Line
The setup heading into Tuesday’s Asia session is decisively risk-on. A strong US close, low VIX, rising copper, and a broadly weaker dollar all favor equity upside — particularly for the tech-heavy markets in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan that already posted outsized gains on Friday. The one caution is oil’s steep decline, which creates a headwind for energy-exposed exchanges in Australia and Singapore. Luna3 sees the weight of evidence tilting toward continuation rather than reversal, but after moves as large as Friday’s in Seoul and Taipei, position sizing matters more than direction.
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