Asian Session Summary

The dollar ground higher through Asia, with DXY reclaiming the 100 handle on a combination of Middle East risk premium and recalibrated Fed pricing. The move was broad-based — every G10 pair conceded ground against the greenback, but the damage was unevenly distributed. Antipodeans and Scandinavians bore the brunt: NZD/USD dropped 0.45% to 0.5872, AUD/USD slipped 0.37% toward 0.7000, and USD/SEK surged 0.58% to 9.5573. The commodity complex told a split story — gold held firm above $4,100 (+1.8%) on haven demand while crude collapsed (WTI -4.6%, Brent -5.7%), dragging NOK and CAD lower. Copper’s 2.9% rally offered some offset for the Aussie but wasn’t enough to stem the tide.

Key Pairs for London

GBP/USD — 1.3437
Cable is the pair to watch into London. Down 40 pips on the session, it’s pressing into the lower half of UOB’s 1.3400–1.3475 band. The Asian low at 1.3420 is the first line of defence — a clean break puts 1.3400 round-number support in play. Sterling weakness is partly a USD story, partly cross-driven: EUR/GBP ticked up to 0.8567, suggesting euro is outperforming the pound within Europe. London dealers will test that 1.3420 level early.

EUR/USD — 1.1515
Euro gave back a quarter-percent but remains above the session low at 1.1506. The pair is caught between broad USD demand and relative euro resilience (EUR crosses are mostly flat to positive). The 1.1500 figure is the obvious magnet — a break would open the door toward 1.1475, while a hold and bounce targets the Asian high at 1.1519 and then the 1.1550 zone. London flow typically sets the EUR/USD tone for the day, and the tight 13-pip Asian range suggests a directional move is loading.

USD/NOK — 9.5296
The Brent crude implosion is the dominant driver here. A nearly 6% drop in Brent translates directly into NOK weakness, with USD/NOK pushing toward the 9.55 handle (session high 9.5474). If oil selling continues into European hours — and London energy desks will have their say — 9.5700+ is exposed. Watch for any reversal in crude as the counterargument; copper’s rally hints the demand picture isn’t uniformly bearish.

NZD/USD — 0.5872
The worst performer in G10 today, down 45 pips. The kiwi is being dragged by dairy sentiment and broader risk-off positioning. Session low at 0.5864 is close — losing that level would put 0.5850 in scope, a figure last tested in July. The high at 0.5874 now acts as nearby resistance. With no RBNZ catalyst imminent, this is a USD-momentum and risk-appetite play.

AUD/JPY — 110.75
A useful risk barometer. Despite copper strength, AUD/JPY slipped 0.24% as yen found some haven bid (USD/JPY holding relatively contained at +0.13%). The Asian low at 109.94 — just above 110.00 — marks a clean level. A break below 110 on a European risk-off move would signal broader de-risking. Conversely, if equities stabilise, the copper bid could pull this cross back toward 111.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday London sessions typically bring UK services PMI final prints early in the session — if released today, any downside surprise would add to GBP pressure given cable is already sitting on support. Beyond scheduled data, the market is pricing Fed commentary: headlines reference hawkish Fed odds supporting the dollar, so any ECB or BoE speaker appearances would be measured against that backdrop. The oil collapse will also draw London energy commentary that could spill into NOK and CAD flows — Rabobank’s note flagging that Brent’s sharp drop “questions supply fears” suggests the sell-off may have further to run if European desks agree.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans defensive below 1.1520 with the 1.1500 figure acting as the pivot — a London break-and-hold below it confirms the USD bid, while a quick reclaim above 1.1520 traps Asian shorts. GBP/USD is more vulnerable given the UOB band framework puts downside at 1.3400 and sterling is underperforming the euro on the crosses. Commodity-linked pairs face asymmetric risk: the oil rout should keep NOK and CAD offered, though AUD may find a floor near 0.7000 if copper’s rally holds through European hours. The DXY tone is constructive above 100 — until that breaks, the path of least resistance for G10 is lower against the dollar.

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