Now I have all the confirmed catalysts. Let me write the post.
- US CPI on Tuesday is the single biggest FX catalyst of the week — a soft print could push DXY through 99 and accelerate yen strength below 157
- USD/JPY at 157.74 after a 1.5% weekly drop is the pair to watch, with gold at 4,399 and oil's 7.7% crash reinforcing the dollar-weakening macro
- Bias is cautiously bearish USD into the week — a hot CPI read flipping that stance is the one scenario that resets the board
The setup into Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026
Global FX heads into the week of Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026 with the dollar on the back foot and a stacked US data calendar ahead. The DXY closed last week at 99.60, down 0.2% and clinging to the underside of 100 — a level it has failed to reclaim for weeks. The standout move was USD/JPY, which dropped 1.5% to 157.74 as yen bulls pushed the pair lower on a combination of narrowing rate differentials and safe-haven demand. EUR/USD edged to 1.1562, AUD/USD held 0.7033, and GBP/USD was flat at 1.3455. The commodity backdrop was split: gold surged 8.7% to 4,399.70 — its largest weekly gain in months — while WTI crude collapsed 7.7% to 78.18 and Brent fell 7.3% to 83.55. That gold-up / oil-down combination typically signals a market pricing slower growth alongside persistent inflation hedging, and it leaves the dollar caught between two narratives heading into Tuesday’s CPI print.
Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026 — the calendar
Monday Aug 11 — Japan is closed for Mountain Day, thinning out early Asian liquidity. USD/JPY and the yen crosses (GBP/JPY 212.88, EUR/JPY 182.38, AUD/JPY 111.52 — all down 0.9–1.3% last week) could gap on any weekend headline given the holiday vacuum. No tier-1 releases elsewhere.
Tuesday Aug 12 — The main event: US CPI for July drops at 8:30 AM ET. This is the single highest-impact release of the week for every G10 pair. Markets are watching headline and core month-over-month closely — any deceleration from the June prints would reinforce the “Fed is done” narrative and likely extend dollar weakness. A hot surprise does the opposite and could snap DXY back above 100 fast. Every directional FX position this week is effectively a CPI bet until this number clears.
Wednesday Aug 13 — US PPI for July at 8:30 AM ET. Producer prices land the day after CPI, and the sequencing matters: a soft CPI followed by soft PPI would build a two-day disinflationary signal that gives EUR/USD room to test higher and keeps pressure on USD/JPY. A divergence (soft CPI, hot PPI) muddies the read and could stall the dollar selloff.
Thursday Aug 14 — A double feature. US Retail Sales for July at 8:30 AM ET tests the consumer-spending side of the equation — strong retail sales offset the inflation-softening story by keeping the Fed cautious on cuts. Separately, Eurozone Q2 GDP second estimate is due. The flash reading came in at +0.4% q/q, doubling the +0.2% consensus — a confirmation or upward revision here supports EUR/USD at current levels and makes the ECB’s rate path harder to read.
Friday Aug 15 — The calendar thins out. Expect positioning adjustments and profit-taking after three consecutive days of US tier-1 data. University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment for August is the only notable print. The real risk is that traders square up ahead of the weekend, which can amplify late-session volatility in thinner Friday flows.
Levels and instruments to watch
DXY at 99.60 — the index closed below 100 and every session it spends under that round number erodes the technical floor. A soft CPI print Tuesday could open a move toward the 98.50–99.00 zone. A hot print likely snaps it back above 100 and resets the week’s tone.
USD/JPY at 157.74 — down 1.5% last week and the sharpest move on the G10 board. The yen crosses all followed: GBP/JPY lost 1.3%, EUR/JPY 1.2%, NZD/JPY 1.2%, CAD/JPY 1.0%. With Japan closed Monday, the pair could drift in thin conditions before CPI reprices it Tuesday. A break below 156 on soft US data would be the cleanest directional signal of the week.
EUR/USD at 1.1562 — quietly grinding higher. Thursday’s eurozone GDP second estimate is the local catalyst. If the +0.4% flash holds and US data softens, 1.16 comes into range. Gold at 4,399.70 and EUR/CHF recovering to 0.9335 (+0.5%) suggest the risk backdrop isn’t bearish enough to derail euro gains.
USD/CNH at 6.7425 — flat last week. China credit and liquidity data are in focus but don’t have a confirmed date this week. Range-bound until a policy signal breaks the deadlock.
The bias
The lean into the week is cautiously bearish USD. The DXY below 100, gold’s 8.7% surge, and oil’s collapse all paint a picture of a market that is fading dollar strength and pricing a slower-growth, lower-rate world. The yen’s outperformance (USD/JPY -1.5%) is the clearest expression of that view. If Tuesday’s CPI confirms disinflation, the dollar selloff likely extends across the board — EUR/USD through 1.16, USD/JPY toward 156, and the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) holding their ground.
The one thing that flips the board: a hot CPI print. If July inflation reaccelerates, the “Fed is done” thesis gets shelved, DXY reclaims 100, and the yen rally stalls. Everything else — PPI, retail sales, eurozone GDP — is secondary to that single number on Tuesday morning.
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