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Where Asia Closed Friday

China was the standout heading into the weekend. The Shanghai Composite climbed 1.02% to 3,940 and the Shenzhen Component jumped 1.42% — the strongest session across the region — as policy optimism and tech-sector flows continued to build. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.54% to 25,668, riding the same mainland momentum.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 1.05%, its best day in weeks, helped by financials and industrials. New Zealand’s NZX 50 gained 0.52% in early Monday trade, already reflecting the positive US close.

The rest of the region was softer. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 0.12% to 65,607 — effectively flat but notable given yen strength that tends to weigh on exporters. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.60% to 6,259, the weakest major index on Friday, as memory-chip names gave back some of the prior week’s gains. Taiwan’s TAIEX slipped 0.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 was barely changed at -0.09%. India’s Nifty 50 edged down 0.27%.

The regional split was clear: mainland China and Southeast Asia bought the dip, while Northeast Asian tech hubs pulled back.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street closed Friday with broad gains that should put a floor under Monday’s Asia open. The Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.30% and the S&P 500 added 0.62%. The Russell 2000 gained 1.11%, signaling the breadth of the move wasn’t confined to mega-cap tech — headline data confirmed the number of stocks beating the S&P 500 is at a four-year high.

Technology led sectors with XLK up 1.42%, and Materials added 1.32%. Energy was the clear laggard, dropping 1.13%, while Financials slipped 0.36%. The VIX fell to 14.9, well below the 20 threshold that signals stress — markets are pricing calm.

For Asia-Pacific, the strong Nasdaq finish should support HKEX-listed tech and TAIEX semiconductor names at the open. The materials strength is a positive read-through for ASX miners.

Commodity + FX Watch

Gold surged 1.36% to around $4,400 — a fresh leg higher driven by Iran uncertainty and positioning ahead of this week’s US inflation print. That’s a tailwind for ASX gold miners like Newmont and Northern Star.

Copper firmed 0.53% to $6.61, a modest positive for both ASX base-metals names and the broader China demand narrative. WTI crude rose 0.70% to $78.70, though the move was contained enough that it shouldn’t pressure Asian importers.

In FX, the Australian dollar gained 0.49% to 0.707, reflecting the risk-on mood — a stronger AUD tends to compress ASX returns in local-currency terms. USD/JPY fell 0.33% to 158, meaning yen strengthened. A firmer yen is a headwind for Japanese exporters but signals safe-haven demand hasn’t fully unwound despite the equity rally.

What to Watch Today

• China continuation trade: Shanghai and Shenzhen were the best-performing major indices on Friday. Whether that momentum carries into Monday or meets profit-taking will set the tone for the whole region, especially Hong Kong tech.
• US CPI preview positioning: US futures dipped Sunday evening as investors brace for this week’s inflation data. If pre-CPI hedging picks up, expect KOSPI and TAIEX — the most US-rate-sensitive Asian markets — to feel it first.
• Iran risk premium: Gold at $4,400 and crude holding near $79 say the geopolitical bid hasn’t fully cleared. Energy-importing economies (Japan, India, Korea) are on the wrong side of any escalation.
• Berkshire’s buying spree: Warren Buffett’s $23.5 billion stock-buying quarter — breaking a 14-quarter selling streak — is a sentiment signal. Expect Berkshire-adjacent names across Asia (insurance, trading houses) to catch a bid on the read-through.

Bottom Line

The overnight setup tilts risk-on for Monday’s Asia session. A 1.3% Nasdaq rally, VIX below 15, and broad gains across US small-caps and materials give Asian markets a constructive handoff — particularly for China and Hong Kong, which already had momentum into the weekend. The two swing factors this week are US inflation data and Iran headlines; until those resolve, the gold bid at $4,400 says smart money is hedging even as equities grind higher. At Luna3, we’re watching whether Friday’s China-led strength broadens into Japan and Korea or stays a one-region trade.

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