Asian Session Summary

The overnight session belonged to the yen sellers. USD/JPY pushed through 159.00 and tagged 159.38, its highest of the day, as the widening US-Japan rate differential and renewed fiscal anxiety in Tokyo kept pressure on the currency. Every yen cross moved in lockstep — GBP/JPY cleared 215, CAD/JPY printed near 114.35, AUD/JPY held above 112. The DXY itself barely moved, adding just six-hundredths of a percent to 99.87, which tells you this was a yen story rather than a broad dollar bid. Elsewhere, the antipodeans leaked lower — NZD/USD dropped 28 pips to 0.5872 on safe-haven flows, while AUD/USD slipped to 0.7050 despite copper gaining 0.8% and oil ripping higher. That commodity-FX divergence is the kind of dislocation London desks tend to notice.

Key Pairs for London

USD/JPY — 159.33
Up 91 pips on the session with the high at 159.38. The 159.00 handle that capped price for weeks has flipped to support. Headlines citing Japan’s fiscal position and the stubborn US-Japan rate gap are doing the work here. Watch for a probe toward 159.50 if London risk appetite holds. A failure to extend above today’s high and a drop back below 159.00 would suggest the move is exhausted.

GBP/USD — 1.3497
Cable is flat on the day (+0.05%) and stuck in a 21-pip range between 1.3495 and 1.3516. UOB flagged upside tests capped near 1.3555 — that level is now the line in the sand for London longs. Below, 1.3495 has held as intraday support twice. This pair needs a catalyst from the UK data calendar to break the range. A clean hold above 1.3500 keeps the structure constructive; a slide below 1.3490 opens 1.3450.

EUR/USD — 1.1535
Drifting lower, down 18 pips from yesterday’s close. The session high at 1.1553 was rejected and the pair is sitting on the low at 1.1535. DXY below 100 keeps the broader euro bid alive, but intraday momentum favors sellers. The 1.1530 level is immediate support — a break puts 1.1500 on the board. Resistance at 1.1555 needs to be reclaimed for bulls to re-engage.

AUD/USD — 0.7050
The divergence here is the trade. WTI is up 2.3%, Brent up 2.2%, copper up 0.8% — yet the Aussie is down 18 pips and trading near session lows at 0.7044. NZD weakness is dragging the bloc, and safe-haven demand is offsetting commodity support. If oil and copper hold their gains into London, a snapback toward 0.7065 (today’s high) is the mean-reversion play. Below 0.7040, the commodity read stops mattering and the pair trades on risk sentiment alone.

GBP/JPY — 215.04
The strongest mover on the board at nearly +1%. This cross tends to accelerate in London when the yen is already under pressure from Asia. Today’s high at 215.19 is the level to clear for continuation. The pair hasn’t traded above 215.50 in recent sessions, making that a natural target if yen selling persists. A reversal below 214.80 would flag a momentum fade.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday London sessions typically bring UK labour market data — average earnings and the unemployment rate are the releases that could jolt GBP pairs out of their current range. Separately, any ECB commentary filtering through from overnight or early European hours could steer EUR/USD, particularly given the pair is sitting right on session lows. Oil’s 2%+ overnight rally may also draw attention from BoE and ECB watchers given its pass-through to headline inflation readings — that connection keeps the commodity move relevant for rates pricing beyond just the commodity currencies.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans defensive into London. The pair is on its low, DXY is holding just below 100, and there’s no obvious catalyst to reverse the drift unless European data surprises to the upside. GBP/USD is neutral — range-bound and waiting for a UK data print to pick a direction, with 1.3555 as the ceiling UOB identified. The commodity-linked currencies should get a second look if oil and copper hold gains; AUD/USD at 0.7050 with WTI up 2.3% looks mispriced if risk appetite is genuine rather than positioning noise. The dollar tone is mildly bid but unconvincing — DXY below 100 keeps the medium-term bearish structure intact even as the greenback grinds higher intraday.

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