Asian Session Summary

The dollar index drifted into the London handover virtually unchanged at 99.98, masking a clear split underneath. The greenback gained ground against commodity and risk-linked currencies — AUD, NZD, CAD all softer — while giving back a fraction against the euro and yen. NZD/USD was the standout mover, dropping 0.74% to 0.5837 as the kiwi extended losses on broad commodity weakness. Brent crude fell 1.34% to $87.79, WTI slipped 1.37% to $82.13, and copper lost 1.29% — a trifecta that weighed on the Antipodean and resource bloc. Gold bucked the trend, adding 0.42% to $4,428, suggesting some defensive positioning beneath the surface calm in DXY.

Key Pairs for London

NZD/USD — 0.5837
The session’s weakest G10 pair, down 74 pips from the high of 0.5865 to the low of 0.5825. The sell-off tracks falling commodity prices and a broader risk-off tone across Antipodean FX. Watch 0.5825 — today’s low and the immediate support. A clean break opens 0.5800 as the next round-number target. Topside, any bounce needs to reclaim 0.5865 to shift the bias.

EUR/USD — 1.1529
Trading a tight 19-pip range between 1.1515 and 1.1534. The pair is consolidating just below the 1.1550 handle after recent strength, and London flow will determine whether this is a pause before another leg higher or a distribution top. BNY’s note on renewed USD selling pressure from Fed-driven hedge rebuilding supports the euro bull case, but price action is neutral. First resistance at 1.1534 (today’s high), support at 1.1515.

GBP/USD — 1.3484
Cable dipped 0.19% overnight, retreating from 1.3501 toward 1.3476. The 1.3500 round number acted as a ceiling during the Asian session and becomes the level to watch on any London bid. Sterling underperformed the euro — EUR/GBP edged up to 0.8549 — hinting at a modest GBP-specific drag rather than pure USD strength. Support sits at 1.3476, today’s low.

USD/CHF — 0.8129
The franc weakened 0.23%, one of the larger G10 moves. USD/CHF bounced off 0.8122 and is testing above 0.8130. EUR/CHF also crept higher to 0.9370, suggesting broad CHF softness rather than a USD story. The 0.8150 high marks first resistance; a move through it would be the cleanest trend continuation trade of the session.

AUD/USD — 0.7051
Down 0.18%, tracking Oil and Copper lower. The pair dropped from 0.7069 to 0.7047 — the 0.7050 handle is acting as a pivot. If commodity losses deepen into European hours, a test of 0.7040 is likely. AUD/JPY fell 0.15% to 112.33, adding cross-selling pressure.

London Calendar Watch

Thursday’s European session typically brings second-tier data flow, though traders should stay alert for any ECB speaker appearances — the central bank’s rate path commentary has been the dominant euro driver in recent weeks. UK GDP and industrial production prints sometimes land on Thursdays, and any release tied to the real economy could steer GBP crosses given cable’s proximity to 1.3500. On the US side, the DXY forecast flagging a potential breakout above 100.00 aligns with weekly jobless claims due later — a beat would give dollar bulls the catalyst they need to push through that level.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is neutral-to-slightly-bullish — the pair is holding above 1.1500 despite overnight USD strength against commodity FX, and the BNY note on Fed-driven selling pressure supports dip-buying into 1.1515. GBP/USD looks more vulnerable, trading below 1.3500 with EUR/GBP grinding higher, so any London weakness favours shorts toward 1.3450. The commodity bloc (AUD, NZD, CAD) faces headwinds if Oil and Copper extend their slide — NZD/USD in particular looks stretched and could see a dead-cat bounce, but the path of least resistance is lower while crude stays offered. DXY at 99.98 is the pivot: a clean break above 100.00 resets the board in the dollar’s favour, while failure to hold bids there keeps the greenback on the back foot into the US session.

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