Overnight Summary

The dollar drifted lower into the Friday close, with DXY settling at 99.64, down 0.32% on the session. The move was broad-based — every G10 pair leaned against the greenback — but the real story was in commodities. Gold pushed through $4,430 (+1.57%), WTI rallied 1.42% to $82.40, and Brent added 1.75% to $88.59. That commodity bid fed directly into the Scandies and commodity-linked currencies: USD/NOK dropped 0.76%, NZD/USD gained 0.56%, and USD/CAD fell just shy of the notable threshold at -0.40%. With no single pair breaking through the 0.8% big-move mark, this was a session of consistent dollar selling rather than any one-directional blow.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/NOK (9.4322, -0.76%): The biggest G10 mover on the session. Norway’s krone was the direct beneficiary of the oil bid — Brent gaining 1.75% gave NOK a straightforward tailwind. USD/NOK is now pressing toward the 9.40 handle, a level that acted as support in late July. A clean break below there on follow-through would open the 9.35 zone.

NZD/USD (0.58938, +0.56%): The kiwi pushed firmly above 0.5890, its best levels in over a week. Broad risk appetite and a weaker dollar did the heavy lifting here. Copper’s modest 0.21% gain added some support but wasn’t the main driver — this was a dollar-weakness trade more than a New Zealand-specific story. The 0.5900 round number is the obvious near-term target; a daily close above there would mark a shift in the short-term range.

NZD/JPY (93.884, +0.56%): Mirroring NZD/USD almost tick for tick, which tells you the yen was largely a passenger in this move. USD/JPY barely moved (-0.08%), so NZD/JPY’s gain was almost entirely NZD strength rather than JPY weakness. Still, 94.00 is right there and will attract attention early in the Asian session.

CAD/JPY (114.82, +0.45%): The oil rally did double duty here — lifting CAD via crude while JPY stayed flat. CAD/JPY has been grinding higher for three sessions and is approaching the 115.00 psychological level. That round number will matter if WTI holds above $82.

USD/SEK (9.5161, -0.43%): Sweden’s krona caught a bid alongside its Scandinavian neighbour. The move was more moderate than NOK — the krone doesn’t carry the same direct oil beta — but the broader dollar weakness and European risk-on tone pulled SEK higher. The 9.50 level is now in play as near-term support for USD/SEK.

Asian Session Setup

The overnight tone is unambiguously dollar-negative and risk-positive heading into the Sydney and Tokyo opens. DXY below 99.70 and commodities firm sets a constructive backdrop for AUD and NZD in early Asian trade. AUD/USD at 0.7087 (+0.32%) has room to test 0.7100 if the risk bid carries through — copper’s modest overnight gain wasn’t enough to drive the Aussie on its own, but a follow-through bid in Asian commodity markets could do it.

USD/JPY at 159.30 is the quiet watchpoint. It barely moved overnight despite broad dollar weakness, which suggests the pair is being held up by the rate differential. Any shift in that dynamic — a headline or a whiff of intervention talk above 160 — could trigger a sharper reaction given how extended the pair remains.

With it being Saturday trade in Asia (thin liquidity into the weekend), moves in NZD/JPY toward 94.00 and AUD/JPY around 112.90 are worth watching for momentum extension or profit-taking snapback.

Bottom Line

Friday’s session was a clean risk-on, dollar-off session with commodities doing the steering. The one pair traders will be watching into next week is USD/NOK — if Brent holds above $88 and the krone can punch through 9.40, it sets up one of the cleaner trend-continuation trades in G10 right now.

Read next: FX Markets · How to Read the COT Report · What Is a Bond?