Asian Session Summary

The dollar leaked lower through Asian trade, with DXY slipping 0.23% to 99.42 as markets positioned ahead of tonight’s FOMC minutes. The move was broad but shallow — EUR/USD ground higher to 1.1602 while USD/JPY drifted to 159.08, both moves orderly rather than impulsive. The standout divergence was in the commodity bloc: despite dollar softness, AUD/USD dropped 0.38% and NZD/USD fell 0.46%, weighed by a 0.81% slide in copper. Gold pushed through 4400 to trade at 4412, up over 1% — the classic soft-dollar, pre-event hedge bid. Brent crude firmed 0.54% to 91.51 but WTI slipped, adding a mixed read on risk appetite. The Swiss franc edged higher within range, consistent with headlines flagging CHF demand as the dollar softened.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1602
Up 0.17% on the session with a high print at 1.1608. The pair is pressing the top of its Asian range and the 1.1600 round number is acting as a pivot. A clean break and hold above 1.1610 opens the door for London momentum buyers toward 1.1650. Downside support sits at 1.1574 (today’s low). The FOMC minutes overhang may keep EUR longs cautious on fresh entries above here, but the DXY trend is with them.

AUD/USD — 0.7081
The weakest G10 pair on the day despite broad USD selling — copper’s 0.81% drop is doing the damage. The session low at 0.7070 is the immediate level. If London risk sentiment turns defensive ahead of the minutes, a break below 0.7070 targets the 0.7050 handle. The EUR/AUD cross tells the same story, up 0.55% to 1.6385 — European accounts have been fading AUD on the cross all session.

GBP/USD — 1.3556
Barely moved at +0.04%, grinding sideways in a 42-pip range (1.3524–1.3566). That 1.3566 high is the near-term ceiling. Cable needs a catalyst to break out either way — the pair is coiling. EUR/GBP drifting higher at 0.8556 suggests the euro is the preferred long over sterling in this USD-down environment. Watch for any UK data or BoE commentary to give cable its own driver.

NZD/JPY — 93.48
Down 0.63% and the biggest mover in the crosses — combines NZD weakness (copper, risk) with JPY strength (pre-FOMC hedging). Session low is 93.41, and a break opens 93.00. This cross is a clean expression of risk-off positioning and worth monitoring as a sentiment barometer through the London morning.

USD/CAD — 1.3882
Modestly higher (+0.09%) despite the Trump headline that he’s holding off on 50% Canadian tariffs. That should have been CAD-positive, but the pair barely flinched — WTI’s 0.46% decline is offsetting. The 1.3866 low is near-term support; 1.3908 (session high) is resistance. If oil stabilises into London, USD/CAD could drift lower on the tariff relief headline.

London Calendar Watch

The dominant event is the FOMC minutes release later today — multiple desks are already positioned for it, which explains the cautious tone across G10. For the London morning itself, mid-week sessions in August are typically light on scheduled European data. Any ECB speaker appearances would draw attention given EUR/USD sitting on the 1.1600 handle. UK housing or public finance data sometimes lands on Wednesdays in August, but the real flow driver today is pre-FOMC positioning. Expect London to trade the existing momentum (dollar-soft, antipodeans-weak) until New York takes over.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is mildly constructive — the pair is grinding higher with DXY below 99.50, and the path of least resistance is up unless the FOMC minutes deliver a hawkish surprise tonight. GBP/USD is neutral-to-constructive but needs to clear 1.3566 to attract momentum. The commodity currencies are the outlier: AUD and NZD are being sold despite dollar weakness, driven by base metals — if copper extends lower in London, AUD/USD could test sub-0.7050 and NZD/USD sub-0.5860. The dollar tone is soft and getting softer, with gold above 4400 confirming the directional read.

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