Overnight Summary

The franc stole the overnight session. USD/CHF collapsed 1.45% to 0.8004 — the largest single-pair G10 move — while gold ripped 1.9% to $4,575, reinforcing the safe-haven bid underneath CHF. At the same time, commodity-linked currencies caught a tailwind from firmer oil: Brent jumped 1.67% to $93.15, lifting NOK and CAD, while NZD surged 1.23% in a broad risk-on grab that stretched across multiple crosses.

DXY itself barely moved, ticking up 0.045% to 98.87. That flatline masks real dispersion underneath — the dollar lost ground against nearly every G10 peer. Copper was the one commodity outlier, slipping 0.08% to $6.483, which kept AUD’s gains more modest than the rest of the commodity bloc.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/CHF (0.8004, −1.45%): The standout move. Gold’s $85+ rally pulled capital into francs, driving the pair through the 0.8050 handle with little pushback. Sub-0.80 is now in sight — a level that hasn’t traded since the early-2025 range lows. Any follow-through in gold toward $4,600 keeps this pair under pressure.

NZD/USD (0.5945, +1.23%): Kiwi was the top-performing commodity currency overnight. The move took the pair above the 0.5900 handle cleanly. With WTI and Brent both higher and no fresh headwinds from the data, NZD caught positioning flow. The 0.5960–0.6000 zone is the next resistance band to test.

EUR/USD (1.1684, +0.90%): Euro pressed higher on broad dollar softness, pushing within range of the 1.17 handle. The move was orderly — no single catalyst, just steady buying. A close above 1.1700 would open the path toward 1.1750.

NZD/JPY (94.50, +0.86%): The risk-on cross caught both NZD strength and mild yen softness on the crosses. 95.00 is the psychological level overhead. This pair tracks risk appetite cleanly — if equities follow through in Asia, it runs.

USD/NOK (9.3262, −0.85%): Brent’s 1.67% jump was the driver. Norwegian krone picked up where it left off, with the pair sliding through 9.35 support. Below 9.30, the next pocket of demand sits near 9.25.

USD/CAD (1.3782, −0.83%): Oil-driven. WTI held above $86 and Brent’s push past $93 gave CAD bulls confidence to press the pair lower. The 1.3750 level is the immediate floor — a break below would be the cleanest close under that mark in weeks.

GBP/CHF (1.0906, −0.80%): Sterling couldn’t keep pace with the franc’s surge despite GBP/USD rising 0.69%. The cross broke below 1.0950 and is testing the 1.09 handle. CHF strength is doing the work here, not GBP weakness.

GBP/USD (1.3630, +0.69%): Cable rode the broad dollar-selling wave. The pair is holding above 1.3600 and eyeing the 1.3650–1.3700 band. EUR/GBP at 0.8566 (+0.17%) confirms this was a dollar story, not a sterling story — the euro gained slightly more.

EUR/CHF (0.9346, −0.60%): Even with EUR/USD up 0.9%, the euro still lost ground to the franc. That tells you everything about how strong the CHF bid was. Sub-0.93 would be a fresh leg lower.

USD/SEK (9.4835, −0.54%): Swedish krona followed the Scandinavian theme lower (NOK led, SEK followed). The pair slipped through 9.50 and has room to test the 9.45 area.

AUD/USD (0.7114, +0.47%): Aussie participated in the commodity-FX rally but lagged NZD and CAD. Copper’s 0.08% dip kept AUD from running as hard. The 0.7100 level held as support — the pair needs a push through 0.7150 to get traders’ attention.

CAD/JPY (115.34, +0.48%) and EUR/JPY (185.70, +0.55%): Yen crosses drifted higher — the yen lost ground on the crosses even as USD/JPY edged down 0.32% to 159.04. The carry-trade bid is still alive in the background.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney and Tokyo open into a market where the dollar is on the back foot, commodity FX is bid, and CHF strength is the dominant signal. For Asia-Pacific pairs, the overnight tone is supportive — AUD/USD above 0.7100 and NZD/USD above 0.5900 give local currencies a clean runway unless early flows reverse the commodity bid.

USD/JPY at 159.04 is the pair to watch in Tokyo. It’s caught between the yen-cross carry bid (EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY still firm) and the broad dollar-selling pressure. A break below 158.80 would signal that the dollar leg is taking over. Gold holding above $4,575 keeps the safe-haven complex (CHF, JPY) underpinned, which may cap any USD/JPY bounce attempts early in the session.

Copper’s flat session means AUD needs fresh impetus — Chinese data or early commodity futures will set the tone.

Bottom Line

Overnight belonged to the franc and the commodity bloc. Gold’s rally put a floor under safe havens while oil lifted Scandies and CAD — a rare session where both safe-haven and risk-on FX gained at the dollar’s expense. The pair the Asia desk is watching first is USD/JPY at 159 — it’s the fulcrum between carry and dollar-weakness, and the Tokyo open will decide which force wins the Friday session.

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