Where Asia Closed Yesterday

Friday delivered a clear split across the region: export-heavy Northeast Asia rallied hard while China went the other way.

South Korea’s KOSPI led the pack with a 3.55% surge to 8,476 — its strongest single-session gain in weeks, driven by semiconductor optimism and won weakness boosting exporter margins. Taiwan’s TAIEX followed closely at +2.51% to 44,733, with TSMC-adjacent names catching the same bid. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.53% to 66,330 as USD/JPY held above 159, keeping the yen-weak export tailwind intact.

Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.62% to 8,732, benefiting from commodity strength and a weaker AUD making resource earnings more competitive in local terms. Singapore’s Straits Times added 0.98% to 5,038, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 edged up 0.29%.

The outliers sat in Greater China. Shanghai Composite slipped 0.73% to 4,069, and Shenzhen Component dropped 1.81% to 15,575 — a meaningful underperformance that suggests domestic liquidity or policy concerns are weighing on A-shares even as the rest of the region runs. Hong Kong split the difference: the Hang Seng rose 0.70% to 25,182, lifted by its dual-listed tech names tracking US ADR strength rather than mainland sentiment. India’s Nifty 50 fell 1.50% to 23,548 on profit-taking after its recent run.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street extended its winning streak with modest gains. The S&P 500 added 0.22% to 7,580 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%, while the tech-heavy QQQ ETF gained 0.37%. The VIX dropped to 15.3 (down 2.67%), signaling complacency rather than fear — a backdrop that typically lets Asian risk assets run.

Sector leadership came from Technology (XLK +2.23%) and Financials (XLF +0.60%), while Energy (XLE -1.16%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) lagged despite oil strength. The Russell 2000 dipped 0.55%, suggesting the rally remains concentrated in large-cap quality.

For Asia: XLK’s strength directly benefits KOSPI and TAIEX semiconductor names. The Nvidia “game-changer” product headline adds fuel to the AI hardware supply chain — expect Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and TSMC to open firm. The BOJ bond-taper pause headline could keep yen-weak dynamics in play for Japanese exporters.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil jumped 2.36% to $89.40 on the Trump-Iran headline — this supports energy names across the ASX (Woodside, Santos) and could pressure oil-importing economies like India and South Korea at the margin. Gold held firm at $4,570 (+0.19%), reflecting steady demand without panic buying.

Copper gained 0.69% to $6.40, a modest positive for ASX base-metal miners (BHP, Rio Tinto) but not enough to move the needle alone. AUD/USD rose 0.25% to 0.718, a tailwind for foreign holders of ASX assets but a mild headwind for Australian exporters. USD/JPY at 159 remains elevated — Japanese equities continue to benefit from the weak yen, though BOJ taper commentary bears watching. The dollar’s broad stability means no forced flows for HK or mainland names today.

What to Watch Today

• China PMI reads: June 1 typically brings the official NBS Manufacturing PMI — any sub-50 print would validate Friday’s A-share weakness and could drag the Hang Seng lower despite its Friday resilience.
• Korean semiconductor momentum: KOSPI’s 3.55% Friday surge needs follow-through. Watch Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the open for whether the Nvidia product catalyst has legs or was already priced.
• BOJ taper pause signal: The headline about BOJ potentially pausing its bond taper next year gives JGB bulls room — if yields stay anchored, the Nikkei’s yen-driven rally can extend.
• India rotation risk: Nifty’s 1.50% drop on Friday may attract dip-buyers, but if selling accelerates into Monday, watch for FII outflow data confirming foreign money rotating into Northeast Asia’s tech rally instead.

Bottom Line

The overnight setup favors risk-on for Northeast Asia — low VIX, tech leadership in the US, and commodity support all point toward continuation of Friday’s Korea-Japan-Taiwan strength. The risk sits in China, where A-shares are swimming against the regional current. Luna3 sees the Monday open as a tale of two regions: buy the semiconductor belt, stay cautious on mainland-exposed names until PMI data clears.

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