Asia closed Friday on a broad rally led by Korea’s 4.6% surge, and the overnight US session handed the region another tailwind — futures jumped on a US-Iran peace deal that crushed oil prices and sent risk appetite soaring into what promises to be a loaded week with the Fed’s first meeting under Kevin Warsh.

Where Asia Closed Yesterday

Friday was green across every major Asian index, but the scale varied sharply. KOSPI led the region at +4.63%, a standout session driven by heavyweight semiconductor and battery names catching a bid as global tech sentiment firmed. Taiwan’s TAIEX wasn’t far behind at +2.36%, riding the same chip-cycle tailwind.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.81% to close at 66,020 — a strong session for exporters as yen weakness persisted near 160. India’s Nifty 50 rose 1.99% to 23,623, continuing its recovery from the tariff-driven selloff earlier this quarter.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.93% to 24,718, outpacing mainland China where the Shanghai Composite rose a more modest 1.12% to 4,032 and the Shenzhen Component gained just 0.75%. The Hong Kong-Shanghai divergence suggests offshore capital is more willing to add risk than domestic investors.

Australia’s ASX 200 jumped 1.98% to 8,804. Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.76% to 5,026, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 gained 0.63% to 13,479. Across nine exchanges, not a single index closed red — that kind of unanimity usually signals either genuine macro improvement or a short squeeze that fades fast. Monday’s price action will tell us which.

US Overnight Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed up 0.50% to 7,430, with the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.31%. Futures are pointing sharply higher after President Trump announced a peace deal with Iran, sending Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures jumping in the overnight session.

The VIX collapsed 9.05% to 17.7 — comfortably below 20 and signaling that options markets are pricing calm. That’s a green light for risk assets across Asia at the open. Materials led US sectors at +1.87%, followed by Financials at +1.37% and Technology at +0.87%. The breadth was healthy: the Russell 2000 gained 0.87%, outpacing large-caps.

The combination of small-cap outperformance and falling volatility is the kind of setup that tends to lift Asian cyclicals — particularly Japanese industrials and Korean autos. The one caveat: the Fed meets this week, and nobody knows what to expect from Warsh’s first decision as chair.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil is the big mover. WTI crude dropped 4.19% to $81.30 on the Iran deal, which markets are pricing as a supply-positive event. That’s a direct headwind for ASX energy names like Woodside and Santos, and will weigh on Petrochina and CNOOC in Hong Kong. India’s import bill benefits — Nifty could extend gains on the cheaper crude.

Gold surged 2.30% to $4,310, a counterintuitive move alongside falling VIX that likely reflects dollar softness and central-bank buying rather than fear. Copper added 1.38% to $6.52, a positive read-through for ASX miners like BHP and Rio Tinto.

AUD/USD firmed 0.45% to 0.708, supporting Australian equity valuations in USD terms. USD/JPY slipped marginally to 160, offering no relief for yen bears — Japanese exporters keep the tailwind. Watch USD/CNH for any PBoC signaling; a stronger yuan would help Hong Kong-listed China names extend Friday’s gains.

What to Watch Today

• Iran deal follow-through: The peace deal is the dominant driver. If details hold up through Asia hours, expect energy to lag while airlines, industrials, and consumer names benefit from the implied drop in input costs. Any walk-back from either side reverses the trade fast.
• Fed week positioning: Warsh’s first meeting as Chair starts Tuesday. Markets don’t know his bias — economists are split on whether he leans hawkish or dovish. Expect some hedging activity to cap upside in rate-sensitive sectors, particularly HKEX property and REITs.
• KOSPI momentum test: A 4.63% session is hard to follow. Watch whether Korean semiconductor names (Samsung, SK Hynix) open with continuation buying or profit-taking — that will set the tone for TAIEX chip stocks as well.
• China onshore sentiment: Shanghai and Shenzhen lagged Friday’s rally. If A-shares can’t keep pace with the Hang Seng again today, it reinforces the narrative that domestic confidence remains fragile despite improving headlines.

Bottom Line

The setup for Monday’s Asia session is clearly risk-on. A broad Friday rally, falling VIX, surging US futures on the Iran deal, and supportive commodity signals all point toward green opens across the region. The main check on enthusiasm is the Fed — Warsh’s first meeting introduces genuine uncertainty that could keep traders from chasing aggressively. Luna3 sees this as a day to watch for continuation in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan, while keeping one eye on oil-sensitive names that face a tougher morning.

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