Asia closed Friday on a split screen — Korea and Japan rallied while mainland China sold off — and now the region reopens into a US session that punished tech, spiked oil nearly 10%, and sent the VIX up 14% in a single day.

Where Asia Closed Yesterday

South Korea’s KOSPI was Friday’s clear leader, surging 2.52% to 7,475.94 as semiconductor and auto names caught a bid. Japan’s Nikkei 225 followed with a solid +1.20% to 68,557.73, helped by export-weighted heavyweights benefiting from continued yen weakness. India’s Nifty 50 added 1.02% to 24,206.90, extending its steady grind higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.60% to 24,175.12, a modest advance that masked the deeper trouble across the border. Shanghai Composite fell 1.00% to 3,996.16 — slipping back below the psychologically watched 4,000 level — while the Shenzhen Component dropped a sharper 2.29% to 15,046.67. The mainland weakness stood out against an otherwise constructive regional tape.

Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.50% to 8,806.00. Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 0.65% to 5,469.29. Taiwan’s TAIEX slipped 0.83% to 45,354.61, underperforming on profit-taking in chipmakers. New Zealand’s NZX 50 dipped 0.46% to 13,722.46 in early Tuesday trade.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street sold off to start the week. The S&P 500 fell 0.79% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.55%, with the Technology sector (XLK) bearing the brunt at -2.42%. Earnings season is kicking off this week and the pre-positioning looks defensive — investors rotated out of growth and into energy (+3.01%) and financials (+0.65%).

The VIX jumped 14.17% to 17.2. That’s still below the 20 threshold that signals broad stress, but the pace of the move matters — a VIX that spikes double digits in one session tells you hedging demand is picking up fast. For Asia, the Nasdaq weakness will pressure HKEX-listed tech and TAIEX semiconductor names at the open. The energy bid, however, gives ASX energy stocks and Nikkei-listed trading houses a tailwind.

Commodity + FX Watch

The overnight story is oil. WTI crude surged 9.76% to $78.40 after headlines that the US is filling its strategic reserves while the administration vowed to control the Strait of Hormuz. That kind of move reprices the entire energy complex — ASX energy names (Woodside, Santos) should gap higher, and Japanese trading houses with commodity exposure stand to benefit.

Gold fell 2.28% to around $4,010, a sharp pullback as the oil spike pulled capital toward energy plays and away from safe havens. Copper edged up 0.65%, a modest positive for ASX miners. On FX, AUD/USD was essentially flat at 0.694, offering no headwind for the ASX. USD/JPY ticked up 0.34% to 162, keeping the weak-yen export tailwind intact for Nikkei heavyweights. The stronger dollar broadly will add mild pressure to Hong Kong-listed China names where USD/CNH sensitivity runs high.

What to Watch Today

• Energy repricing across the region. A near-10% oil spike doesn’t happen often. Watch how ASX energy stocks, Japanese trading houses (Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsui), and Indian oil marketing companies react at the open — the move is large enough to drive sector rotation for days.
• US earnings season overhang. Big bank earnings start dropping this week. Any guidance on credit quality or consumer spending will set the tone for Asian financials and export-sensitive names through the rest of the week.
• Mainland China follow-through. Shanghai slipped below 4,000 on Friday with Shenzhen down 2.29%. Watch whether onshore sentiment stabilizes or the selling accelerates — a break lower in the A-share market would drag the Hang Seng with it.
• TAIEX and HKEX tech under pressure. Nasdaq’s 1.55% decline and XLK’s 2.42% drop set up a weak open for TSMC, MediaTek, and Hong Kong-listed internet names. Sandisk’s post-earnings plunge in the US adds a negative read-across for memory and storage plays.

Bottom Line

The setup for Tuesday’s Asia session is a two-speed market. Energy and commodity-linked names across the ASX, Nikkei, and Indian bourses have a clear tailwind from the oil spike, while tech-heavy boards in Taiwan and Hong Kong face selling pressure from the US growth rotation. Mainland China’s Friday weakness adds a third risk lane — if Shanghai can’t reclaim 4,000 early, defensive positioning will dominate the China complex. Luna3 sees a session where sector selection matters more than direction.

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