Where Asia Closed Last Session

Friday was a bloodbath across Northeast Asia. Taiwan’s TAIEX crashed 6.47% and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 6.37% — both among the worst single-session drops either index has posted this year. The damage was concentrated in semiconductor and tech-export names, the same cohort that had led the region higher for months.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 4.03% to 64,141, dragged lower by export-weighted heavyweights as the yen held firm near 163 against the dollar. China’s mainland indices joined the rout: the Shanghai Composite fell 3.05% while the Shenzhen Component — heavier in growth and tech — plunged 5.40%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.78% to 24,562, a relatively contained loss given the carnage elsewhere.

India was the standout outlier. The Nifty 50 gained 1.09%, continuing its decoupling from the broader Asia tech selloff. Singapore’s Straits Times Index dipped a modest 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 slid just 0.50% to 8,797 — its commodity weighting acting as a partial buffer. New Zealand’s NZX 50 was essentially flat.

The pattern was clear: the more tech- and semiconductor-exposed the market, the harder it fell.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street offered little drama on Monday. The S&P 500 eased 0.19% and the Nasdaq Composite was nearly unchanged at -0.05%, suggesting US investors didn’t panic-sell in sympathy with Friday’s Asia rout. The Russell 2000 underperformed at -0.59%, pointing to some rotation pressure on smaller names.

The VIX settled at 18.6, down 0.64% on the day — still below the 20 threshold that typically signals broad stress. Technology (XLK) was flat at +0.07%, which removes one potential source of overnight contagion for TAIEX and KOSPI at the reopen. Energy (XLE) led sectors with a +0.45% gain on firmer oil. Materials (XLB) lagged at -0.99%, a signal worth watching for ASX mining names.

The muted US session means Asia’s Tuesday open will be driven more by local positioning and weekend digestion than by any fresh Wall Street catalyst.

Commodity + FX Watch

Copper jumped 1.83% to $6.33 — the strongest move in the commodity complex overnight. That’s a tailwind for ASX copper and diversified miners like BHP and Rio Tinto at the open. WTI crude edged up 0.22% to $82.70, sitting near a one-month high as Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea keep supply risk elevated. Gold was flat at $4,010, down 0.17%.

AUD/USD firmed 0.27% to 0.70, reflecting the copper bid and relatively contained risk-off tone. That’s supportive for ASX broadly. USD/JPY was dead flat at 163, giving Japanese exporters no new direction — the Nikkei’s recovery, if any, will need to come from a shift in domestic sentiment rather than currency help. Traders watching China should note that headlines about Apple Intelligence getting the green light in Beijing could filter into HKEX tech sentiment early.

What to Watch Today

• Bounce or continuation in TAIEX and KOSPI: Both fell over 6% last session. The absence of fresh US tech weakness overnight sets up conditions for a technical bounce, but positioning into the open will reveal whether Friday’s selling was liquidation or the start of a larger unwind.
• US-Canada tariff escalation: Washington hit Ottawa with stiff new tariffs overnight. While this is a bilateral dispute, any broadening of trade rhetoric could reignite the tariff-risk premium that hit Asian exporters hard in Q1. Watch for follow-on headlines targeting other trade partners.
• Apple in China: Apple Intelligence received regulatory approval in mainland China. HKEX-listed Apple suppliers and Chinese AI-adjacent names may see positioning shifts at the open as the market prices in what broader access means for the ecosystem.
• ASX resource sector: Copper’s 1.8% overnight gain meets a materials sector (XLB) that fell 1% in the US. The ASX typically follows the commodity rather than the sector ETF — watch BHP and South32 for early direction.

Bottom Line

The overnight US session was calm enough to give Asia a window for a relief bounce after Friday’s sharp losses, but the burden of proof is on buyers. Northeast Asian tech markets (TAIEX, KOSPI, Nikkei) need to demonstrate that Friday was a washout rather than the opening act. Luna3 sees the balance of risk tilted slightly toward a bounce in early trade — VIX under 19, copper bid, no fresh bad news — but the new US-Canada tariff headline and the sheer scale of Friday’s damage mean rallies will be sold until proven otherwise.

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